Here are 10 key findings from the results so far:
This time NDA government
According to the trends available on the Election Commission website, BJP It is leading on 241 seats, 31 seats short of a majority and 62 seats less than the 2019 elections.
Lok Sabha Elections
assembly elections
If the trends continue, BJP will have to depend heavily on its NDA allies to form the government.
Far from ‘crossing 400’, the BJP seems to be left with a shaky majority, which will entirely depend on its NDA allies staying united.
Despite the failure, BJP’s vote percentage increased, Congress’ performance improved
Though the BJP is leading in around 240 seats, much lower than the 303 it won in 2019, there has been a marginal improvement in its vote share.
In 2019, the BJP had secured around 37.36% of the total votes, this time trends suggest that the saffron party may get a vote share of 38.17% – a potential improvement of 0.81 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the Congress is set to secure 23.45% vote share – an improvement of nearly 4 percentage points compared to the 19.49% it recorded in the 2019 elections.
Return Regional parties
As per the latest trends released by the Election Commission, regional parties have taken a big lead in 5 states in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In Bihar, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) is leading on 15 seats, while the BJP is leading on 13. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) may win 5 seats, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal is leading on 3 seats. In 2019, the BJP had won 17 seats on its own, while the JD(U) had won 16 seats.
In Jharkhand, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha led by Hemant Soren is leading on 3 seats. On January 31, Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate. He submitted his resignation to the Jharkhand Governor, who appointed Champai Soren in his place. The BJP is leading on 8 seats. In 2019, it had won 12 out of 14 seats.
The strength of regional parties was particularly evident in Maharashtra, where the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (Uttar Pradesh) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP made big leads.
In 2019, the BJP had won 23 out of 48 seats while its ally Shiv Sena had won 18. However, this time the BJP is leading in just 11 seats while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP is leading in just 1 seat and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may secure around 5 seats.
Meanwhile, Shiv Sena UBT is leading on 11 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP is leading on 7 seats. Meanwhile, Congress is leading with a lead on 12 seats.
The most shocking setback for the BJP is that the party is leading in only 32 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. This is much less than the 62 seats it won in the 2019 elections. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party has made a big gain and is leading in 37 seats, it had won only 5 seats in the last general elections.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress is set to improve its performance of 2019. It is currently leading in 31 seats, in 2019 TMC had won 22 seats. At the same time, BJP, which won 18 seats in 2019, is leading in only 10 seats this time.
Big setback to BJP in Hindi belt
In 2019, the BJP won 176 out of 225 seats in 10 Hindi belt states: Uttar Pradesh (won 62 of 80 seats), Uttarakhand (5/5), Bihar (17/40), Jharkhand (11/14), Chhattisgarh (9/11), Madhya Pradesh (28/29), Delhi (7/7), Haryana (10/10), Himachal Pradesh (3/4) and Rajasthan (24/25).
This time, the BJP is leading in only 127 of the 225 seats. The saffron party seems to be heading for the biggest defeat in Uttar Pradesh (leading in only 32 of the 80 seats), Haryana (5/10) and Rajasthan (14/25).
The saffron party also seems to be performing poorly in Bihar (13/40) and Jharkhand (8/14) this time.
In Uttarakhand (5/5), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Madhya Pradesh (29/29), Delhi (7/7) and Himachal Pradesh (4/4), the BJP will either maintain its dominance or even better its 2019 performance.
No Congress free India
BJP’s goal of freeing India from Congress now seems to be getting further away. In 2019, Congress was reduced to just 52 seats, however, now it seems to be gaining a big lead and is leading in more than 95 seats.
Encouraged by its seat-sharing arrangement with its India Bloc members, the Congress is leading in seats in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Telangana.
In Telangana, the Congress is leading in 8 out of 17 seats. In 2019, it had won only 3 seats in the state.
In Maharashtra, Congress is leading on 11 seats. In 2019, it had won only 1 seat.
In Rajasthan, the Congress failed to open its Lok Sabha account in 2019. This time it is leading on 8 seats.
In Haryana also, Congress had won 0 seats in the last election, but now it seems to be winning 5 seats.
Rahul’s resurrection, impact of Bharat Jodo Yatra
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s South-North India Jodo Yatra and subsequent East-West Nyay Yatra have had a big positive impact on the party.
During his trip, a big trend in favour of Congress was seen in the states he visited.
Rahul, who is contesting from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, seems to be winning both the seats with a big margin.
According to the latest trends, Rahul Gandhi has secured 59.53% votes and is leading over Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India. The BJP is in third place.
Rahul is projected to get at least 66 per cent votes in Rae Bareli – about 10 per cent more than what his mother Sonia Gandhi got in 2019.
There is no visible impact of Ram Mandir
The consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya was considered by experts as a decisive step for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and beyond. But it seems that this strategy did not work at all for the saffron party.
In Faizabad (the Lok Sabha seat under which Ayodhya falls), SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad was leading by a narrow margin over BJP candidate Lallu Singh.
BJP leads in Odisha
Despite major setbacks in the Hindi heartland states, the BJP seems to be gaining ground in Odisha, where it is leading in 19 of the 21 seats. The BJD, on the other hand, is leading in just one seat.
In 2019, BJD had won 12 seats and BJP had won 8 seats.
Development vs. freebies
Can freebies help you win elections? Or in short, can only freebies help you win elections? It seems not.
Telangana under KCR was a sample state of freebies model. It helped him win 2 consecutive elections. But the freebies model came to an end in the third assembly election. All the freebies could not help KCR win Telangana for the third time.
Back then, the Jagan Mohan-led YSRCP relied heavily on freebies to win the Andhra Assembly elections. But Chandrababu Naidu has managed to win the hearts of voters and the state with his promise of giving more.
There is no denying that freebies play an important role in winning elections. But while it is true that one can always promise more when it comes to freebies, it is becoming increasingly clear: freebies may be necessary, but not sufficient, to win elections.
The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana will be exciting
The big changes in the results of the Lok Sabha elections are now pointing towards a fierce battle in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana.
Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP, along with the Congress, now appear to be in a very strong position in the assembly elections in the state.
The arrest of former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren seems to have a positive impact on the party, possibly due to the sympathy vote, as the JMM has repeatedly said that the BJP is leading a political vendetta against the party. With the resurgence of the Congress, the assembly elections in Jharkhand are likely to be a tough contest for the BJP.
The BJP government in Haryana is already facing the anger of disgruntled farmers and the JJP, which has 10 assembly seats, has distanced itself from the alliance. With the Congress now in a strong position, it will be a tough fight for the BJP in the elections to be held in October this year.
