In the last decade, BJP got good marks in Rajasthan. The party also rode a wave of victory in the December 2023 assembly elections. However, this time there seem to be some obstacles. From challenges within the party to defection, debate over inadequate development and anger over Agneepath and farmer protests, it may be difficult for the BJP to repeat its 25/25 performance for the third time. Swati Mathur and Bhanu Pratap Singh take a look at nine seats where local factors make things tough for the saffron party.
Churu
Voting in Churu on April 19 was around 64%, the second highest among the 12 seats that went to polls in the first phase, and 6 percentage points higher than the state average. The contest erupted into a clash between Congress candidate Rahul Kaswan and former MLA Rajendra Rathore, a supporter of the BJP candidate, turning it into a caste conflict between Jats and Rajputs. In place of outgoing BJP MP Kaswan, the saffron party gave a chance to Paralympic gold medalist Devendra Jhajharia. Kaswan accused Rathod (both then in BJP) of influencing the decision, as Rathod had held the MP responsible for his defeat in the assembly elections four months earlier. Taking advantage of the opportunity, the Congress took Kaswan to its side and fielded him from Churu, and he directed most of his criticism towards Rathod rather than Jhajharia. Despite PM Modi addressing a rally here, uncertainty remains over the election result.
Nagaur
Located in the Jat heartland, Nagaur witnessed a fierce battle between rival factions of the Mirdha family, long a political giant in Rajasthan under the Congress banner. The feud, which has been going on since the 1970s, has intensified in the past few years, prompting Jats to seek alternative leadership. The change prompted former Mirdha supporter Hanuman Beniwal, who now leads the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, to form an alliance with the Congress. Beniwal’s challenger is Jyoti Mirdha, who joined the BJP ahead of the 2023 assembly elections, which she lost. In Nagaur, the contest was mainly between Jyoti and Beniwal, with Congress MLA Harendra Mirdha supporting Beniwal. The campaign highlighted generational divisions, with Jyoti’s uncle Richpal, who joined the BJP, appealing to nostalgia and Beniwal focusing on the youth. Tension led to sporadic violence on polling day on 19 April. Over 57% voting was recorded in the constituency. In 2019, Beniwal defeated Jyoti and formed an alliance with the BJP – then with the Congress.
jhunjhunu
Jhunjhunu’s political scene was long dominated by Congress sis Ram Ola, a former Union minister who had the remarkable talent of remembering all his voters by their first names. Ola won five consecutive parliamentary elections for the Congress from 1996 to 2009. After his demise in December 2013, the BJP managed to regain the Lok Sabha seat, but faced challenges and had to change candidates in all subsequent elections. This time the competition has intensified with Congress fielding Sis Ram’s son and sitting Jhunjhunu MLA Brijendra Singh Ola as its candidate. The BJP has given the ticket to former MLA Shubhakaran Choudhary, replacing outgoing MP Narendra Kumar, who faced criticism for a controversial comment about Rajputs, who are a key support base for the BJP. Voting on 19 April recorded a 53% turnout, leading to speculation about the reluctance of the BJP’s core voters to engage in the electoral process.
Sikar
There is a close contest between the Congress and the BJP on this Jat dominated seat, part of the semi-arid Shekhawati region of the state. Sikar is one of the two seats in Rajasthan where India has fielded a joint candidate. CPM’s Amra Ram is not only eyeing reviving his party’s fortunes but also hoping to regain lost ground at the center of farmer politics. India is banking on anti-incumbency against two-time BJP MP Sumedhanand Saraswati. It is also a prestige seat for state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra, who has recently emerged as the party’s strongest Jat leader in the state. It is believed that India is in a strong position as a result of his and Amra Ram’s personal popularity. Farmers have been at the forefront of the movement in both the areas. There is also anger at the grassroots level against the Agneepath scheme of short-term recruitment in an area with deep links with the armed forces. Many coaching centers that prepare youth for army recruitment examinations have been closed, leading to halt in economic activities and reducing the BJP’s prospects.
Dausa
Traditionally ‘pilot-ed’ by the Congress, Dausa, which had defected to the BJP in the last decade, is showing signs of change. This year’s Meena-versus-Meena clash – the Congress has fielded five-time MLA and former state minister Murli Lal Meena against the BJP’s former MLA and state minister Kanhaiya Lal Meena – has brought prestige to former deputy CM Sachin Pilot. It has been presented as a battle. The Congress last won Dausa in 2004, when it elected 27-year-old Sachin Pilot. In 2009, in the first election held after delimitation, Kirori Lal Meena won as an independent. Harish Meena and Jaskaur Meena won for BJP in 2014 and 2019 respectively. Kirori Lal Meena has since moved to BJP and is a cabinet minister in the Bhajan Lal Sharma government. With Pilot’s aggressive campaigning in Dausa and Kirori Lal Meena embarrassing the BJP more than once by alleging corruption in government schemes, local conditions have changed, making for a tough contest till the end.
quota
Like BJP, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla is also hoping for a hat-trick. However, BJP leader Prahlad Gunjal, who recently joined the Congress, has leveled the playing field. Gunjal Gunjal, who won the Kota North Assembly seat twice on BJP ticket, has been a staunch supporter of former CM Vasundhara Raje. Gunjal’s entry has created a pitched battle in the ‘Hadoti’ constituency, where the Congress was struggling to find a suitable contender against Birla. Raje’s absence from the BJP campaign is being seen as an indirect support for Gunjal. With 20.9 lakh voters in Kota, Gunjal is targeting the traditional support base of the Congress, especially 2.7 lakh Muslims, 2.3 lakh Meenas and over 2 lakh Brahmins. Although Gujjars have traditionally supported the BJP, many believe that Gunjal’s defection will give the Congress a larger share of their votes. Apart from this, Sachin Pilot has put all his efforts behind Gunjal. However, Birla’s track record and local roots place him in a strong position. Gunjal’s dispute with Congress MLA Shanti Dhariwal and lack of support from a section of Congress workers are also at play.
Jodhpur
This clash may have been initially reported to be in favor of BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. However, anti-incumbency after a 10-year tenure as MP, poor relations with local MLAs and a Rajput challenger in the form of Congress’s Karan Singh Uchiarda have created tough competition for the Jal Shakti minister. Uchiyarada, contesting his first election, has centered his campaign around promises that Shekhawat did not keep, particularly piped water supply to households in the dry zone. Ahead of voting on April 26, Shekhawat has sought to turn the contest into a fight to protect ‘Sanatan Dharma’ and secure international borders. However, the fight will depend on which side the prominent Rajputs and Bishnois vote for. Although pollsters still put Shekhawat in the lead, he may have to fight by a much narrower margin as his rival has kept him on his toes.
barmer
Instead of the traditional Congress versus BJP fight, Barmer, located in the middle of the Thar Desert, is set for a triangular contest this time with the entry of 26-year-old Ravinder Bhati, who is contesting as an independent. Bhati’s ‘bhashan’ and flamboyant style has not only enthralled the youth but has also made the traditionalists crazy, becoming a tough challenge to the BJP and Congress. BJP has again fielded its sitting MP Kailash Choudhary, while Congress has fielded Umedaram Beniwal, who recently came from RLP. Bhati, a local Rajput, has challenged the two Jats and his ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ has transformed from an election campaign into a mass movement drawing massive crowds. Barmer has a mix of Jats, Rajputs, minorities, Scheduled Castes and other communities. Due to the considerable influence of Jat leaders, both Congress and BJP have to face challenges. The result is yet to be seen.
Banswara
Banswara, one of the most closely contested seats, has seen dramatic fluctuations since the announcement of Lok Sabha elections. The five-month-old organization – Bharat Adivasi Party – has taken the region by storm. The Congress’s initial choice for this seat fell out with the BJP and its subsequent candidate, Arvind Damor, refused to withdraw his name from the draw, even though his party announced an alliance with the BAP at the last minute, leading to Three major contenders remained in the fray.
A tough contest seems to be between India/BAP’s Rajkumar Rot and BJP’s Mahendrajit Malviya from Congress. The tribal-dominated seat has been in the center of attention not only because of Congress’ errors but also because of PM Modi’s fiery speech last week, where he accused Congress of planning to “snatch” it from Hindu homes and redistribute it to Muslims. Was accused of. Although this statement was made in a constituency where families had built up considerable reserves on their own silver, little attention seems to have been paid to it, and the issues that matter to young people are Employment and better infrastructure.
Churu
Voting in Churu on April 19 was around 64%, the second highest among the 12 seats that went to polls in the first phase, and 6 percentage points higher than the state average. The contest erupted into a clash between Congress candidate Rahul Kaswan and former MLA Rajendra Rathore, a supporter of the BJP candidate, turning it into a caste conflict between Jats and Rajputs. In place of outgoing BJP MP Kaswan, the saffron party gave a chance to Paralympic gold medalist Devendra Jhajharia. Kaswan accused Rathod (both then in BJP) of influencing the decision, as Rathod had held the MP responsible for his defeat in the assembly elections four months earlier. Taking advantage of the opportunity, the Congress took Kaswan to its side and fielded him from Churu, and he directed most of his criticism towards Rathod rather than Jhajharia. Despite PM Modi addressing a rally here, uncertainty remains over the election result.
Nagaur
Located in the Jat heartland, Nagaur witnessed a fierce battle between rival factions of the Mirdha family, long a political giant in Rajasthan under the Congress banner. The feud, which has been going on since the 1970s, has intensified in the past few years, prompting Jats to seek alternative leadership. The change prompted former Mirdha supporter Hanuman Beniwal, who now leads the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, to form an alliance with the Congress. Beniwal’s challenger is Jyoti Mirdha, who joined the BJP ahead of the 2023 assembly elections, which she lost. In Nagaur, the contest was mainly between Jyoti and Beniwal, with Congress MLA Harendra Mirdha supporting Beniwal. The campaign highlighted generational divisions, with Jyoti’s uncle Richpal, who joined the BJP, appealing to nostalgia and Beniwal focusing on the youth. Tension led to sporadic violence on polling day on 19 April. Over 57% voting was recorded in the constituency. In 2019, Beniwal defeated Jyoti and formed an alliance with the BJP – then with the Congress.
jhunjhunu
Jhunjhunu’s political scene was long dominated by Congress sis Ram Ola, a former Union minister who had the remarkable talent of remembering all his voters by their first names. Ola won five consecutive parliamentary elections for the Congress from 1996 to 2009. After his demise in December 2013, the BJP managed to regain the Lok Sabha seat, but faced challenges and had to change candidates in all subsequent elections. This time the competition has intensified with Congress fielding Sis Ram’s son and sitting Jhunjhunu MLA Brijendra Singh Ola as its candidate. The BJP has given the ticket to former MLA Shubhakaran Choudhary, replacing outgoing MP Narendra Kumar, who faced criticism for a controversial comment about Rajputs, who are a key support base for the BJP. Voting on 19 April recorded a 53% turnout, leading to speculation about the reluctance of the BJP’s core voters to engage in the electoral process.
Sikar
There is a close contest between the Congress and the BJP on this Jat dominated seat, part of the semi-arid Shekhawati region of the state. Sikar is one of the two seats in Rajasthan where India has fielded a joint candidate. CPM’s Amra Ram is not only eyeing reviving his party’s fortunes but also hoping to regain lost ground at the center of farmer politics. India is banking on anti-incumbency against two-time BJP MP Sumedhanand Saraswati. It is also a prestige seat for state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra, who has recently emerged as the party’s strongest Jat leader in the state. It is believed that India is in a strong position as a result of his and Amra Ram’s personal popularity. Farmers have been at the forefront of the movement in both the areas. There is also anger at the grassroots level against the Agneepath scheme of short-term recruitment in an area with deep links with the armed forces. Many coaching centers that prepare youth for army recruitment examinations have been closed, leading to halt in economic activities and reducing the BJP’s prospects.
Dausa
Traditionally ‘pilot-ed’ by the Congress, Dausa, which had defected to the BJP in the last decade, is showing signs of change. This year’s Meena-versus-Meena clash – the Congress has fielded five-time MLA and former state minister Murli Lal Meena against the BJP’s former MLA and state minister Kanhaiya Lal Meena – has brought prestige to former deputy CM Sachin Pilot. It has been presented as a battle. The Congress last won Dausa in 2004, when it elected 27-year-old Sachin Pilot. In 2009, in the first election held after delimitation, Kirori Lal Meena won as an independent. Harish Meena and Jaskaur Meena won for BJP in 2014 and 2019 respectively. Kirori Lal Meena has since moved to BJP and is a cabinet minister in the Bhajan Lal Sharma government. With Pilot’s aggressive campaigning in Dausa and Kirori Lal Meena embarrassing the BJP more than once by alleging corruption in government schemes, local conditions have changed, making for a tough contest till the end.
quota
Like BJP, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla is also hoping for a hat-trick. However, BJP leader Prahlad Gunjal, who recently joined the Congress, has leveled the playing field. Gunjal Gunjal, who won the Kota North Assembly seat twice on BJP ticket, has been a staunch supporter of former CM Vasundhara Raje. Gunjal’s entry has created a pitched battle in the ‘Hadoti’ constituency, where the Congress was struggling to find a suitable contender against Birla. Raje’s absence from the BJP campaign is being seen as an indirect support for Gunjal. With 20.9 lakh voters in Kota, Gunjal is targeting the traditional support base of the Congress, especially 2.7 lakh Muslims, 2.3 lakh Meenas and over 2 lakh Brahmins. Although Gujjars have traditionally supported the BJP, many believe that Gunjal’s defection will give the Congress a larger share of their votes. Apart from this, Sachin Pilot has put all his efforts behind Gunjal. However, Birla’s track record and local roots place him in a strong position. Gunjal’s dispute with Congress MLA Shanti Dhariwal and lack of support from a section of Congress workers are also at play.
Jodhpur
This clash may have been initially reported to be in favor of BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. However, anti-incumbency after a 10-year tenure as MP, poor relations with local MLAs and a Rajput challenger in the form of Congress’s Karan Singh Uchiarda have created tough competition for the Jal Shakti minister. Uchiyarada, contesting his first election, has centered his campaign around promises that Shekhawat did not keep, particularly piped water supply to households in the dry zone. Ahead of voting on April 26, Shekhawat has sought to turn the contest into a fight to protect ‘Sanatan Dharma’ and secure international borders. However, the fight will depend on which side the prominent Rajputs and Bishnois vote for. Although pollsters still put Shekhawat in the lead, he may have to fight by a much narrower margin as his rival has kept him on his toes.
barmer
Instead of the traditional Congress versus BJP fight, Barmer, located in the middle of the Thar Desert, is set for a triangular contest this time with the entry of 26-year-old Ravinder Bhati, who is contesting as an independent. Bhati’s ‘bhashan’ and flamboyant style has not only enthralled the youth but has also made the traditionalists crazy, becoming a tough challenge to the BJP and Congress. BJP has again fielded its sitting MP Kailash Choudhary, while Congress has fielded Umedaram Beniwal, who recently came from RLP. Bhati, a local Rajput, has challenged the two Jats and his ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ has transformed from an election campaign into a mass movement drawing massive crowds. Barmer has a mix of Jats, Rajputs, minorities, Scheduled Castes and other communities. Due to the considerable influence of Jat leaders, both Congress and BJP have to face challenges. The result is yet to be seen.
Banswara
Banswara, one of the most closely contested seats, has seen dramatic fluctuations since the announcement of Lok Sabha elections. The five-month-old organization – Bharat Adivasi Party – has taken the region by storm. The Congress’s initial choice for this seat fell out with the BJP and its subsequent candidate, Arvind Damor, refused to withdraw his name from the draw, even though his party announced an alliance with the BAP at the last minute, leading to Three major contenders remained in the fray.
A tough contest seems to be between India/BAP’s Rajkumar Rot and BJP’s Mahendrajit Malviya from Congress. The tribal-dominated seat has been in the center of attention not only because of Congress’ errors but also because of PM Modi’s fiery speech last week, where he accused Congress of planning to “snatch” it from Hindu homes and redistribute it to Muslims. Was accused of. Although this statement was made in a constituency where families had built up considerable reserves on their own silver, little attention seems to have been paid to it, and the issues that matter to young people are Employment and better infrastructure.
