Here’s the election prediction from one nonpartisan expert: Californians will be so excited about Kamala Harris that they may vote in record numbers.
Of course, the strong Democratic turnout will help candidates on the party’s ticket. Especially in crucial congressional races. Which could determine control of the US House of Representatives.
But what’s so exciting about Harris?
First, She’s also from California, Mark Baldassare, senior pollster, says California Public Policy Institute.will be proud of home state.
Second — and more importantly — she would be the first female president. He says voters “would like to be part of history”.
So, other than electing a Democrat and retiring Disgusting Donald Trump, Baldassare predicts that Californians will be exceptionally motivated to vote for Harris because “she’s from their own state and they can vote for the first female president.”
OK, let’s look at the history.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first female presidential candidate of a major party. She lost to Trump in California. But the turnout for the presidential election here was mediocre: 75% of registered voters cast a ballot.
California has produced two presidents, both Republicans: Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Both carried the state.
When Nixon was elected president in 1968, voter turnout was very high – about 86%. But this was mainly due to public anger at the Johnson administration’s unleashing of the Vietnam War and fatigue with civil unrest.
When Reagan was elected in 1980, California had a good turnout – 77% – but it was nothing extraordinary.
However, that was a long time ago for voting. Nowadays, it’s very easy to vote in California – a sharp contrast to the voter suppression in red states.
Because of this simplicity, nearly 22 million Californians are currently registered to vote — that’s 82% of the state’s eligible population.
Voter registration is practically automatic. The process starts every time you deal with the DMV or fill out a change of address form. Every registered voter is sent a ballot with a postage-free return envelope. There’s plenty of time to fill it out. Voting begins a month before election day.
And despite MAGA’s conspiracy theories and lies, there is no evidence of any significant voter fraud.
Not just Democrats, “Republicans are going to turn out in big numbers,” predicts Baldassare. “They want to make noise — go out and make a statement.”
Republican voters will also be inspired by Harris — but in the opposite way than Democrats.
People wear face coverings while waiting in line to vote in Norwalk in 2020. Voter turnout was very high in California amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
(Frederick J. Brown / AFP / Getty Images)
In addition, citizens will be flooded with media campaign coverage, which will capture their attention.
“We are ready for a historic turnout,” Baldassare insisted.
In a PPIC blog post last week, Baldassare noted that a record 17.8 million Californians voted in 2020. That was the time Joe Biden out-polled then-President Trump, who whined and lied about the vote count.
About 81% of registered voters and 71% of eligible adults in California turned out to vote. Baldassare wrote that the record for votes cast on November 5 “may be broken.”
But two other political experts I spoke to are skeptical.
“We’ll see good turnout, but I’m not sure it’ll be as high as 2020,” says Mindy Romero, director of the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy.
He doubts California voters will care that Harris is a homegrown one: a former San Francisco district attorney, state attorney general and U.S. senator.
“People will pay more attention to this race because Harris is running,” Romero says. “But I don’t know how much it will be because she’s from California. Most Californians know her as the vice president, not as a Californian.”
I suspect Harris is getting a lot of positive attention because she’s not the aging Biden. And Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by about 2-to-1 in California, are drawn to the race because the outrageous Trump is impossible to ignore.
Romero also cites a 2020 motivator for many Democrats that isn’t as intense today: the Black Lives Matter movement, which was inspired by the killing of George Floyd, an African American man, by a white policeman in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It resulted in nationwide protests, some of which turned ugly.
“It politicized the environment and highlighted racial and justice issues,” she recalls.
Romero says unlike this year, in 2020 a lot of public and private money was spent to encourage people across the US to vote because election officials feared lockdowns due to the pandemic would lead to low voter turnout. But the opposite happened.
“COVID lockdowns caused voters to turn out in record numbers,” says Paul Mitchell, an election data analyst who runs Political Data Inc.
He explains: “Remember how bored we were? People were taking their ballots to the drop-off boxes because it was the first time they’d left the house in a week.”
“Turnout this year will be very high, but it’s hard to say it will be higher than 2020. I think 80% is the limit,” says Mitchell.
However, he predicts a record turnout of young people, as more young people have registered. “We’ve seen a big increase in voter registration,” he says.
“We’ve done everything any state can do to make voting easier.”
He added, “No, it’s not like that at all.”
“If we could vote online, it would be a big deal,” he says. “But people are still scared about (potential hacking). It’s kind of crazy. We trust online banking. But we’re stuck with our voting system.”
Yes, but that would likely turn out a massive turnout of voters in California in early October — one that would likely favor Harris, a native.
