with contenders like the current president Ranil Wickremesingheopposition leader Sajith Premadasaand leader of the National People’s Power Anura Kumara Dissanayake In this race, the stakes are high. Each candidate brings a different vision for Sri Lanka’s future and geopolitical strategies.
While India’s neighbours grapple with crises – from political unrest in Bangladesh to rising anti-India sentiment in the Maldives – the stability of its relations with Sri Lanka remains crucial to maintaining regional balance.
How are elections held in Sri Lanka?
In a unique system, each voter ranks three candidates in order of preference. Initially, only first preference votes are counted. If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes, he is immediately declared the winner.
However, if no one reaches this threshold, the election moves to a second stage. In this stage, only the top two candidates remain, and the ballots of the eliminated candidates are re-examined to see if the voters’ second or third preferences favor one of the remaining two contenders. These additional votes are added to the existing votes, and the candidate with the most votes is declared president.
In Sri Lanka’s political system, the president holds considerable power as head of state, government, cabinet, and armed forces. While the prime minister has some influence, particularly in the selection of cabinet members, the president remains the ultimate ruler of the country.
Who are the main candidates?
Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election is crucial, with 39 candidates vying to lead a country grappling with its worst financial crisis in decades. Here are five key players to keep an eye on in the upcoming election.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, 75Rajapaksa, the current president and six-time prime minister, took office after the resignation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Although his United National Party (UNP) is weak in Parliament, the support of more than 90 MPs strengthens his claim.
Sajith Premadasa, 57Opposition leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), advocates revising the $2.9 billion budget IMF Bailout to reduce taxes and lower the cost of living. As the son of a former president, Premadasa’s platform appeals to those who want economic relief and reform.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 55, The leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), has become popular for his anti-corruption stance and calls for state-driven economic reforms. Although his party has only three parliamentary seats, Dissanayake’s popularity is rising.
Namal Rajapaksa, 38Representing the influential Rajapaksa family and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). While the family legacy is large, Namal faces the challenge of distancing himself from the economic fallout associated with his uncle’s government.
Nuwan Bopage, 40, They draw support from the People’s Struggle Alliance, the anti-government protests that ousted Gotabaya from power. They oppose the IMF bailout, and advocate pro-poor policies and alternatives to international aid.
Key issues: Sri Lanka’s deep economic crisis
Sri Lanka’s election is taking place in the shadow of a deep economic crisis, which has become a focal point of this election. Once lauded as an economic success story in South Asia, the nation plunged into turmoil in 2022 due to unsustainable debt and the global fallout from the Covid pandemic. Essentials such as food, fuel and medicine became scarce, leading to widespread anger and a popular uprising that forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to leave the country. Many pointed fingers at the Rajapaksa family and blamed their policies for the collapse.
Inflation, which had risen to 70% in 2022, has since eased below 5%, and foreign reserves have improved. However, despite projected growth of 2% in 2024, these benefits have not trickled down to ordinary people. The cost of living is still high, and businesses and professionals continue to struggle under heavy taxation. While macroeconomic indicators show improvement, the reality remains tough for many Sri Lankans, making the economy a decisive factor in determining who will lead the country next.
Will the elections have no effect on India? Here’s one
With Sri Lanka set to hold a presidential election, the country’s foreign policy—particularly its relationship with India—is hanging in the balance. With several prominent candidates vying for the top post, the outcome of the election could redefine Colombo’s diplomatic trajectory with New Delhi. Each contender offers a different vision of Sri Lanka’s international role, with India sitting prominently at the crossroads.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leading the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, presents a fascinating challenge to Sri Lanka’s traditional foreign policy. Dissanayake, the head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), carries forward a political legacy rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideologies. For decades, the JVP has viewed India not as a friendly neighbour but as a potential supreme leader trying to exert undue influence on the island. The party’s staunch opposition to the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord, which brought Indian peacekeepers into Sri Lanka, further cemented its anti-India stance. Even today, the JVP criticises what it sees as Indian interference in Sri Lanka’s politics and economy.
Dissanayake’s rise has not gone unnoticed by India. In a surprise diplomatic gesture, senior Indian officials, including External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, welcomed the NPP leader to India for bilateral talks. While rolling out the red carpet may seem a contrast to the JVP’s historically hostile approach to India, it underscores India’s growing awareness of the changing political landscape in Sri Lanka. The question is whether Dissanayake, if elected, will soften his stance towards India, or will his leadership lead to renewed tensions between the two countries.
In contrast to Dissanayake’s militant past, another leading candidate, Sajith Premadasa, advocates a more nuanced approach. Premadasa, the son of the late Ranasinghe Premadasa, a staunch opponent of India’s peacekeeping forces in the 1980s, has taken a pragmatic approach.
Acknowledging India’s substantial support during Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis, he is an advocate of a balanced foreign policy. Premadasa sees Sri Lanka as a non-aligned nation that maintains strong ties with all major powers, including India, China and the US. His vision suggests a geopolitical strategy where Sri Lanka can engage India as a strategic partner without alienating other global players. But Premadasa’s challenge will be to ensure that this balancing act does not lead to confrontation with India, which is deeply concerned about China’s growing influence in the region.
Then there is the current President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has already earned a reputation for being India-friendly. After taking office last year, Wickremesinghe wasted no time in strengthening ties with New Delhi, embarking on a visit that resulted in enhanced cooperation between the two countries. India too views Wickremesinghe’s leadership favourably, as he aligns with New Delhi’s strategic goals, especially in the wake of China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka. China’s acquisition of the Hambantota port on a 99-year lease has raised concerns, particularly in India, over Beijing’s potential military activities in the Indian Ocean.
Why is Sri Lanka’s future important for India?
With political and economic turmoil across much of South Asia, Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has become even more important to India. The island nation is now one of India’s most important regional partners, especially when many of India’s neighbours are drifting away from its sphere of influence or facing internal strife.
The sudden departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India amid violent protests in Bangladesh was the end of an era. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh had been a reliable ally, acting as a buffer against religious extremism and anti-India sentiments.
Further complicating matters for India, the Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu, a leader who came to power with an anti-India campaign and has since urged the withdrawal of Indian troops. Although Muizzu attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, his actions indicate a tilt toward China, raising tensions over India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
Meanwhile, Myanmar is embroiled in civil war, with insurgents taking control of half of the country, and Afghanistan has been under Taliban rule since 2021. Pakistan is also facing political turmoil, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan ousted and the country’s economy in disarray.
This makes Sri Lanka’s presidential election extremely important for India – its outcome could significantly shape the island nation’s future relations with India, which faces a growing challenge in maintaining its dominance in the region.
