A new poll conducted after last week’s debate reveals Vice President Kamala Harris He holds a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Wisconsin.
Harris has 48% support among likely voters in Wisconsin. With Trump The vice president’s three-point margin over the former president at 45% in the AARP poll, conducted Sept. 11-14 and released Wednesday, is within the survey’s overall sampling error of plus or minus four points.
Democratic-turned-independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who suspended his campaign last month and endorsed Trump — received 2% support in the poll, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1%. One percent said they would support another candidate, while 2% were undecided.
A Wisconsin judge on Monday denied Kennedy’s request to remove his name from the presidential ballot, ruling that state law requires candidates to remain on the ballot unless they die.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump will debate on September 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Harris’s overall lead includes an 11-point lead among independent voters, as well as an 11-point lead among women voters, while Trump has a 7-point lead among men.
The survey also indicated a geographic divide, with Harris leading significantly among urban and suburban voters, while Trump had a large lead among rural voters.
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The poll also reported that “the gap in educational attainment is huge, with Trump leading non-college voters by 10 points, but Harris leading among college+ voters by 24 points.”
When third-party and independent presidential candidates are removed from the questionnaire, the poll shows Harris has support at 49% and Trump at 48%, with 3% of candidates still undecided.
Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, hold a campaign rally in Milwaukee on August 20, 2024. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)
The AARP survey is the fourth straight survey conducted this month In Wisconsin to point out Harris with a slight edge.
Wisconsin, along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, managed to decide the outcome of the 2020 election between Trump and President Biden by a very narrow margin. Furthermore, these seven states will likely determine whether Harris or Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.
The Badger State, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, are the three Rust Belt states that form the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”
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The party won the three states for 25 consecutive years until Trump won them by narrow margins in the 2016 election to enter the White House.
Four years later, in 2020, Biden won all three states by narrow margins, bringing them back into the Democrats’ fold and defeating Trump.
Both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates have made repeated visits to the state this summer.
Trump most recently held a rally in Mosinee a week and a half ago. Harris will return to Wisconsin on Friday to hold a rally in the state capital, Madison.
Former President Trump departs from a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport in Mosinee, Wisconsin on September 7, 2024. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, held a campaign event in Eau Claire on Tuesday, and his Democratic counterpart, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, visited Superior last weekend.
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In addition to the battle for the White House, there’s also a crucial Senate race taking place in Wisconsin that will likely decide whether Republicans can win back a majority in the House.
According to the poll, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% – 47%, with 3% undecided.
The new AARP survey in Wisconsin was conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (Republican) and Impact Research (Democrat). The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, including a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters.
