The US is “sleepwalking” toward a global war against its top rivals, united under an axis of “malicious partnership”, and Experts are sounding the alarm bells Neither the US military nor the public is ready for World War III.
In late July, a body of non-governmental national security experts, first tasked by Congress in 2022 under the National Defense Strategy Commission, released an assessment of America’s overall security strategy, introduced by the Biden administration two years ago.
The commission found that decades later Because of post-Cold War policies that cut defense spending and decreased investment in the security sector, Washington DC is “not ready” to confront Beijing in open conflict, let alone a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
Chinese and Russian warships will participate in a joint naval exercise in the East China Sea on December 27, 2022. (Shu Wei/Xinhua via AP, File)
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The commission, composed of four Republicans and four Democrats who served under the Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations, wanted to make clear that the lack of preparation was not the fault of any one administration, but the failure of a generation of leaders to recognize and confront the growing threat posed by authoritarian countries. Explain the danger clearly For the American public.
The US and its allies face a threat not seen since World War II from global powers, experts say, as Europe faces the biggest land war on the continent since 1945 – a war in which Russia is getting help from China, Iran and North Korea.
The threat of a major war looms in the Middle East, not just between rogue militants or terrorist groups but between nation-states, and the possibility of open conflict in the Indo-Pacific region also remains a serious concern.
Ambassador Eric Edelman, who served as vice chair of the 2024 Commission and as co-chair or vice chair for prior commission reports, said, “There has been a general failure among our political class to educate the American public about the seriousness of these threats and the danger they pose.” briefing the reporters Organised by JINSA this week.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin look at each other as they shake hands ahead of their talks in Beijing, Thursday, May 16, 2024. (Sergey Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo AP, File)
“Historically, I’m sad to say, when we face challenges like this, we usually react only after a disaster has occurred,” he said, citing events such as Pearl Harbor and 9/11. “Maybe we can learn some different lessons from history.”
Experts pointed to declining defense spending — which has been steadily declining since 1952, when the U.S. allocated about 17% of its GDP to defense, compared to 3% today — and warned that this investment in security is not enough to adequately counter rivals such as China.
After reviewing declassified combat exercises, the commission found that if the US were to enter into an open conflict with Beijing, its weapons stockpile would likely run out within three to four weeks, despite Washington’s efforts to boost its weapons stockpile following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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U.S. Army Soldiers from the 3rd Battalion, 321st Field Artillery Regiment, 18th Field Artillery Brigade, from Fort Bragg North Carolina, conduct a live fire test of early versions of the Army Tactical Missile System at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, December 14, 2021. (John Hamilton/US Army via AP, File)
Some weapons, such as anti-ship missiles, last only a few days, and once expended, take years to replace.
Edelman explained that this is not a justification for cutting off military aid to Ukraine, and highlighted that a direct war against an adversary such as China or Russia would be extremely costly, let alone a global conflict not seen since the 20th century.
Battalion 120 Territorial Defence will take part in training exercises on March 16, 2024 in Chernobyl, Ukraine, near the Belarus border, as the war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for the past two years. (Photo: Gian Marco Benedetto/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“Preparing yourself for defense is essentially an attempt to prevent conflict,” Edelman said. “Whatever the cost of defense is, it will be negligible compared to the cost of war.”
The United States killed more than 1,000 American servicemen in 1945, near the end of World War II. 40% of GDP for its defense budget in 1943 and 1944, and the commission warned that modern wars, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Ukraine, are protracted conflicts.
“The United States should therefore prepare its military and industrial base for the possibility of a long-term conflict,” the commission’s report stated.
However, experts also warned that the solution to America’s preparedness for global power struggle cannot be found in simply pouring money into the defense budget but it also requires a “change in culture.”
Mara Rudman, commissioner and former deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs during the Clinton and Obama administrations, pointed to moves made by China over the past several decades that have given it an edge over the United States, including in its technology sector. Relationship Building in Latin America, Africa and more recently the Middle East.
A view is shown of facilities under construction at the Konchok deposit in western Tajikistan, owned by the Talco Gold Chinese-Tajik antimony and gold mining joint venture, on November 3, 2021. Talco Gold, which is jointly owned by Tajikistan’s state metals firm Talco and China’s Tibet Huayu Mining Co., plans to start commercial production of antimony, a metal used in batteries and fire retardants, from the Konchok deposit by October 2022. (Reuters/Nazarali Pirnazarov)
“He has spent the last 20 years building this project. Belt and Road Initiative“Making sure that they control the processing and mining of most of the critical minerals that we need for various weapons systems, but also for our phones and the kinds of cars that we need to manufacture, and for the batteries that we need at all levels,” he told reporters this week. “That’s something we have to overcome.”
There is growing pressure in the US from within Republican circles to stay away from international intervention, which Rise in separatism This is similar to the sentiment in America before World War II, and experts are warning that this needs to change if Americans don’t want to find themselves embroiled in another global war.
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“It’s going to require leadership, and it’s going to require educating the American public,” said Edelman, who served under the Bush administration.
Experts on the bipartisan commission agreed that the American people not only need to be better educated by their leadership, but they must also trust that they can make the best decisions for their country when properly informed.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (right) meets a delegation led by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu on September 14, 2024. The meeting comes days before the Russian official is scheduled to visit Iran. (KCNA via Reuters)
Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Trump campaign were briefed on the commission’s results by experts.
Although the White House and Harris campaign have not commented publicly on the findings, the former president’s response to the report appears to contradict what the commission urged. Former President Donald Trump called it “idiotic” during a rally in late August — leading experts to question whether Trump was properly briefed by his campaign.
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“I really think it’s impossible to read the report that they’ve put out and not believe that we as a nation … are sleepwalking toward a great and potentially historic disaster,” said John Hannah, the program’s host and JINSA’s Charles and Randy Wax Senior Fellow. “We’re not just on the verge of a national crisis — in many ways, we’re already deep in crisis.
“And right now we don’t have Churchill,” said Hanna, who also served during the Bush administration. “The Commission on National Defense Strategy has accomplished its mission. Now we need everybody across the country and in the corridors of power in Washington to do their part.”
