Countries could use it to resolve major differences over whether to raise the world’s annual carbon emissions target at a United Nations meeting in New York next week. Climate FinanceBut uncertainty remains US Elections Next year’s progress could be at risk United Nations Climate Summit in November.
Negotiators told Reuters that countries were reluctant to clarify their positions before knowing who will win the US presidential election on November 5. climate policy For the world’s largest economy – and biggest polluter – for the next four years.
But negotiators and observers warned that by waiting until November for an answer, countries could jeopardise the chance of reaching a new agreement before the world’s current $100 billion financing pledge expires at the end of this year.
“Elections are at the core of the math of global climate negotiations,” said Michai Robertson, finance negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States.
Governments are analysing different scenarios for a possible victory by Vice President Kamala Harris, who along with President Joe Biden helped pass the largest domestic climate spending bill in US history, or former President Donald Trump, who is a climate change denier and wants to promote fossil fuels. They are also considering a third scenario, with the US stuck in limbo for months because of an uncertain or delayed election result.
“There’s an unspoken understanding that U.S. election uncertainty is influencing countries’ positions,” Robertson said. While some wealthy countries have said they will offer more money — they’re not saying how much more and instead want to “wait to see which direction the U.S. will take.”
Hard target
This week’s United Nations General Assembly is the last all-country conference before the UN General Assembly. COP29 The climate summit begins on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan – less than a week after the US vote.
But agreeing on a new target and increasing the number of donors is proving difficult. Too high a target could mean countries fail to pay the full amount again, leading to tensions and mistrust among developing countries that depend on these funds.
If the target is set too low, many people will be left insecure and deprived. Global Warming Simon Steele, the head of the UN climate agency, has estimated that trillions of dollars would be needed annually to help poor countries adopt clean energy and prepare for a warming world.
A senior official in Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency warned that failure to set a new target before the start of 2025 could jeopardise future climate talks.
The COP29 official told Reuters that Azerbaijan does not even want to consider the possibility of failure.
Different goals
Regardless of who wins the US vote, this year’s US climate negotiators can already make limited promises, though a Harris presidency would ensure greater consistency.
“Negotiators work for the current administration, not for the future,” said former U.S. Rep. Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead the country’s negotiations at the Paris climate summit in 2015.
As a presidential candidate, Harris has said she supports Biden’s stance on climate negotiations, including his pledge to contribute $3 billion to the global Green Climate Fund at COP28 in Dubai last year.
Neither Biden nor Harris have offered any new funding targets, but U.S. negotiators have said fast-growing economies such as China or Gulf oil-producing countries should contribute funds. In the past, China and some Gulf countries have said they should be exempted as developing countries.
On the other hand, Trump has vowed to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement, as well as from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which drives global climate efforts and negotiations among its 198 member nations. Only a handful of countries, including Iran, Libya and Yemen, have pulled out of the UNFCCC.
Marrakesh Surprise
With both the US election and the UN climate summit scheduled for November, this year’s election uncertainty is not unique.
Disputed US elections in 2004 coincided with a climate summit that year, which failed to produce an agreement, forcing talks to be moved to a special session in Bonn, Germany, five months later.
The next big upset came just a year after the landmark Paris Agreement was signed, when U.S. climate negotiators were stunned at a U.N. summit in Marrakech when Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the presidency.
“The U.S. delegation that was there was scattered, and negotiators were confused,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at climate think tank E3G who has attended every COP.
However, this year the situation is different. Negotiators said there is new urgency in the climate fight, as rising global temperatures have already led to climate disasters and extremes.
Climate negotiators are also better preparing themselves for unexpected outcomes, said Paul Bodnar, sustainable finance director at the Bezos Earth Fund, who served as a U.S. negotiator under former President Barack Obama.
He said, “The difference between now and 2016 is that in 2016 it was a big surprise.” After the Trump administration retreated from the global climate effort, Bodnar formed a coalition among American states and cities to maintain a strong US presence in global climate talks.
Negotiators told Reuters that countries were reluctant to clarify their positions before knowing who will win the US presidential election on November 5. climate policy For the world’s largest economy – and biggest polluter – for the next four years.
But negotiators and observers warned that by waiting until November for an answer, countries could jeopardise the chance of reaching a new agreement before the world’s current $100 billion financing pledge expires at the end of this year.
“Elections are at the core of the math of global climate negotiations,” said Michai Robertson, finance negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States.
Governments are analysing different scenarios for a possible victory by Vice President Kamala Harris, who along with President Joe Biden helped pass the largest domestic climate spending bill in US history, or former President Donald Trump, who is a climate change denier and wants to promote fossil fuels. They are also considering a third scenario, with the US stuck in limbo for months because of an uncertain or delayed election result.
“There’s an unspoken understanding that U.S. election uncertainty is influencing countries’ positions,” Robertson said. While some wealthy countries have said they will offer more money — they’re not saying how much more and instead want to “wait to see which direction the U.S. will take.”
Hard target
This week’s United Nations General Assembly is the last all-country conference before the UN General Assembly. COP29 The climate summit begins on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan – less than a week after the US vote.
But agreeing on a new target and increasing the number of donors is proving difficult. Too high a target could mean countries fail to pay the full amount again, leading to tensions and mistrust among developing countries that depend on these funds.
If the target is set too low, many people will be left insecure and deprived. Global Warming Simon Steele, the head of the UN climate agency, has estimated that trillions of dollars would be needed annually to help poor countries adopt clean energy and prepare for a warming world.
A senior official in Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency warned that failure to set a new target before the start of 2025 could jeopardise future climate talks.
The COP29 official told Reuters that Azerbaijan does not even want to consider the possibility of failure.
Different goals
Regardless of who wins the US vote, this year’s US climate negotiators can already make limited promises, though a Harris presidency would ensure greater consistency.
“Negotiators work for the current administration, not for the future,” said former U.S. Rep. Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead the country’s negotiations at the Paris climate summit in 2015.
As a presidential candidate, Harris has said she supports Biden’s stance on climate negotiations, including his pledge to contribute $3 billion to the global Green Climate Fund at COP28 in Dubai last year.
Neither Biden nor Harris have offered any new funding targets, but U.S. negotiators have said fast-growing economies such as China or Gulf oil-producing countries should contribute funds. In the past, China and some Gulf countries have said they should be exempted as developing countries.
On the other hand, Trump has vowed to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement, as well as from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which drives global climate efforts and negotiations among its 198 member nations. Only a handful of countries, including Iran, Libya and Yemen, have pulled out of the UNFCCC.
Marrakesh Surprise
With both the US election and the UN climate summit scheduled for November, this year’s election uncertainty is not unique.
Disputed US elections in 2004 coincided with a climate summit that year, which failed to produce an agreement, forcing talks to be moved to a special session in Bonn, Germany, five months later.
The next big upset came just a year after the landmark Paris Agreement was signed, when U.S. climate negotiators were stunned at a U.N. summit in Marrakech when Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the presidency.
“The U.S. delegation that was there was scattered, and negotiators were confused,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at climate think tank E3G who has attended every COP.
However, this year the situation is different. Negotiators said there is new urgency in the climate fight, as rising global temperatures have already led to climate disasters and extremes.
Climate negotiators are also better preparing themselves for unexpected outcomes, said Paul Bodnar, sustainable finance director at the Bezos Earth Fund, who served as a U.S. negotiator under former President Barack Obama.
He said, “The difference between now and 2016 is that in 2016 it was a big surprise.” After the Trump administration retreated from the global climate effort, Bodnar formed a coalition among American states and cities to maintain a strong US presence in global climate talks.
