A new coronavirus subtype is gaining momentum and drawing more attention as a potential threat in late autumn and winter — a development that threatens to reverse recent promising transmission trends and is prompting doctors to renew their calls for residents to get an updated vaccine.
Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, said XEC, which was first detected in Germany, is spreading rapidly in Western Europe. Like almost all coronavirus strains that have emerged in the past few years, this one belongs to this group. The giant Omicron family – and a hybrid between two previously documented subvariants, K.P.3 and K.S.1.1.
Previous surges have “moved from Western Europe to the East Coast and then to the West Coast of the US,” Hudson said. “So if this one grows even more rapidly as we move into the colder weather months, this will likely be the variant that potentially becomes dominant.”
XEC has not yet been widely seen on a national level. till a descendant of KP.3.1.1, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention FLiRT sub-versionsIt is the most prevalent strain across the country. For the two-week period ending Sept. 14, KP.3.1.1 is estimated to have comprised 52.7% of the country’s coronavirus samples.
In comparison, XEC is not yet being tracked on the CDC’s variant website. A subvariant needs to make up an estimated 1% or more of coronavirus cases nationwide to qualify.
But there are Estimate Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco, said XEC accounts for 13% of coronavirus samples in Germany and 7% in Britain.
“We’ll have to see how things progress. If this continues, we’ll probably start seeing it more around like November, December time,” Hudson said. “So like after Halloween — when the weather probably gets cooler here, people start going indoors more often — that’s when we could see it potentially taking hold.”
Any autumn or winter resurgence, which has become a reliable event since the emergence of COVID-19, will be followed by Long-lasting summer boom Which surprised doctors and experts with its strength.
One good thing, however, is that the timing and intensity of the surge in COVID-19 cases over the summer likely indicates that it may take a few months for many people to become susceptible to reinfection, Chin-Hong said.
last winter Covid peak in California The worst situation in terms of virus levels in wastewater was in the first week of January.
After a surprisingly rapid summer surge, COVID is now Declining The CDC said Friday that death rates may be leveling off or perhaps declining in 22 states, including California and Texas, as well as the District of Columbia.
Covid trends are stable or indeterminate in another 22 states, including Florida and New York. Covid trends are projected to be rising or possibly rising in New Jersey, Washington and Massachusetts, and there was no data for the remaining three states.
Still, new Covid infections remain relatively high in many parts of the country. The C.D.C. said Friday that coronavirus levels in wastewater are still considered “high” or “very high” in 40 states, including California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio. They were classified as “low” or “minimal” in six states, including New York, Michigan, Nevada and Hawaii.
In Los Angeles County, coronavirus indicators are trending downward. For the 10-day period ending Sept. 7, the most recent data available, coronavirus levels in wastewater were at 56% of last winter’s peak. That’s down from the 10-day period ending Aug. 24, when viral levels were at 75% of last winter’s peak.
There were an average of 239 coronavirus cases per day in the week ending September 15, down 31% from the previous week. Officially reported coronavirus cases are lower, as they don’t take into account at-home tests or the fact that many people aren’t getting tested at all when they’re sick. But the trends are still useful in determining how the COVID wave is progressing.
The share of emergency department visits classified as coronavirus-related in LA County was 2.8% for the week ending Sept. 15, down from 3.5% the previous week.
average Number of deaths due to COVID-19However, cases are rising — an expected development given the rise in illness and the delay in reporting deaths. LA County recorded an average of 4.9 Covid deaths per day for the week ending Aug. 27, up from the previous week’s number of 4.3.
Covid levels are also declining in San Francisco Bay Area wastewater. The Santa Clara County Public Health Department said coronavirus levels were considered moderate in the sewersheds of San Jose and Palo Alto, while those in Sunnyvale and Gilroy were low.
The rate of positive coronavirus tests in California is declining. In the week ending Sept. 16, 8.9% of reported coronavirus tests — typically performed in medical facilities — returned a positive result. The seasonal peak was According to the latest data, it stood at 12.8% in the week ended August 10.
It’s still unclear how bad this winter’s respiratory virus season will be. This isn’t the only game in townHealth officials are also closely monitoring the flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.
In late August, the C.D.C. Predictable This year’s fall and winter weather will either be similar to last year’s or perhaps slightly less powerful. But the agency warned that this forecast could be overly optimistic if certain assumptions are wrong — such as if fewer people than expected are vaccinated.
Chin-Hong said the situation may improve because people still have some immunity from the flu and RSV that spread over the past few winters. In addition, vaccination campaigns have been launched to help with this. vaccines against RSV, which became available last year.
Still, every winter brings its own risk of respiratory illness. For example, if a different type of flu spreads than the one included in the vaccine, the vaccine may be less effective.
Hudson said experience from some parts of the Southern Hemisphere during winter suggests that the respiratory virus season can be active here.
“The flu season in Australia was quite strong and early, and we’re already starting to see some cases of flu in the US, which is also quite early,” Hudson said.
The CDC recommends that all children 6 months and older get the new COVID-19 and flu vaccines. These vaccines are widely available, and the best time The CDC says the deadline for vaccinations is September and October.
After corona virus infection, people Consider According to the CDC, one must wait three months to get the latest COVID vaccine. But people can also choose to get it as soon as they feel better.
“I’m always hopeful. And if people get vaccinated — this is the perfect time to get vaccinated against the flu, get the new COVID shot — then we can potentially mitigate what will certainly be a more normal fall-and-winter surge. But I think there’s no telling yet how bad it’s going to be,” Hudson said.
Getting vaccinated “means fewer days sick and more time with our loved ones. We are stronger when we are protected from all respiratory illnesses,” Dr. Tomas Aragon, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. statement,
Officials say older or immunocompromised people who haven’t been vaccinated in more than a year are most at risk for severe Covid illness and death.
data According to the CDC, the survey shows that people who got last year’s updated Covid vaccine were 54% less likely to get the disease between mid-September and January 2023.
According to the CDC, a flu vaccine that’s well-matched to the viruses that are circulating can also reduce the chance of getting sick enough to need a visit to the doctor by 40% to 60%. Said,
There are needle-free options for getting the flu vaccine, such as FluMist, which has been available for several years. nasal spray for nonpregnant people ages 2 to 49. On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration allowed FluMist for at-home use — meaning adults can administer the vaccine to themselves or their children.
A prescription will still be required for the at-home treatment option, which is expected to be available from late 2025.
The C.D.C. says COVID remains a bigger threat to public health than the flu. At least 55,000 COVID-19 deaths have been reported nationally since Oct. 1. At least 25,000 flu deaths are estimated during that same time period. Flu death estimates are expected to be updated in October or November.
The CDC recommends RSV vaccination for all adults age 75 and older, as well as those ages 60 to 74 who are at higher risk for severe illness. However, the RSV vaccine is not annual, so people who got vaccinated last year do not need to get another vaccine at this time.
An RSV vaccine is also available for pregnant mothers between 32 and 36 weeks of pregnancy to protect their fetus. RSV antibodies are also available for infants and some young children.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said it will again offer four free COVID tests by mail for households. You can register here covidtest.gov It will begin at the end of September.
In addition to vaccination, California health officials urged people to take other steps to prevent getting sick and infecting others. These include staying home when sick, getting tested for COVID and flu when sick, wearing a mask in indoor public spaces, washing hands, covering mouths when coughing and sneezing, and keeping indoor spaces ventilated.
