From pager blasts to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah: how Israel is creating a 'new Middle East'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Nasrallah’s death a “knockout punch”.

Israel’s military is celebrating what it says is a sustained campaign as a turning point in long-running conflicts in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Pager Blast: A Coldly Calculated Prelude

The campaign to assassinate Nasrallah began not in the skies, but in the most unexpected of places: pagers. In a remarkable display of technological and intelligence superiority, Israel escalated the conflict by detonating pagers and communications devices in Lebanon and Syria on September 17, killing more than 13 Hezbollah members and seriously injuring thousands. The scale of the blasts shocked Hezbollah’s networks, followed by almost simultaneous attacks that disabled communications channels.
Although Israel never officially claimed responsibility for the blasts, they set the stage for a more conventional bombing campaign, marking a frightening innovation in modern warfare.
Over the next 12 days, Israel launched an unprecedented series of attacks across Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah commanders, rocket launchers, and military installations. The strategic assassination culminated with Nasrallah’s death on 28 September, a move celebrated by Israeli officials as “long overdue”.
The killing of Nasrallah was by no means the first instance of Israel destroying high-profile targets since Hamas’ October 7 attack.
In July, a bomb blast in a Tehran guesthouse widely blamed on Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, followed soon after by another Israeli attack in Beirut that killed Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top operations chief.

why it matters

israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu Nasrallah’s death was called a “knockout punch” for “the main engine of Iran’s axis”, referring to the network of Iran-backed militias. middle east,
After almost a year of conflict that began with Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel last October, the Israeli army now claims to have defeated two of its most powerful enemies – Hamas.
According to a Bloomberg report, the enthusiasm in Israel, reflected in bold newspaper headlines proclaiming the “new Middle East”, has shifted the national mood from fear and uncertainty to triumph.
For Israel, Nasrallah’s death is seen as a defining moment. With a vast arsenal of missiles and deep ties to Iran, Hezbollah has long been one of the most significant threats facing Israel. “Israel changed the rules of the game,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security, told Bloomberg. “Once Hezbollah is paralyzed, the entire axis is also paralyzed. “Iran is unsafe.”
Hezbollah has been Iran’s most powerful proxy, serving as a vital element of its resistance against Israel. For decades, the group’s military strength and deep penetration of Lebanon’s political system made it a formidable opponent.
Nasrallah’s death now leaves a power vacuum within Hezbollah and its broader network of Iranian-backed militias across the region. From Gaza’s Hamas to Yemen’s Houthis, these groups have relied on Hezbollah’s military expertise and leadership in their resistance against Israel and other regional powers. A potential disruption in this network could significantly weaken Iran’s influence, altering the region’s balance of power.
However, the situation for Lebanon is far more uncertain. Weakening Hezbollah could lead to internal instability, especially as the country grapples with one of the world’s worst economic crises. “This is a disaster,” said Laila Al Amin, director of Mercy Corps in Lebanon, reflecting on the displacement of thousands of Lebanese civilians fleeing Israeli air strikes. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati warned that more than a million people could soon be displaced, the largest in the country’s history, adding another layer to the country’s already enormous challenges.

The Israel–Hezbollah conflict: a timeline.

big picture

Hezbollah’s dominance of Lebanese politics for more than two decades has left the country in a delicate balance. Despite being classified as a terrorist organization by the US and several Gulf countries, Hezbollah has maintained significant support among Lebanon’s Shia population, providing social services and acting as a parallel state within the country. However, Nasralla’s death has not only weakened the group militarily, but also shaken its position within Lebanon.
Israel’s almost continuous bombing of southern Lebanon has devastated the region. Entire towns have been reduced to rubble and the crisis of displacement is deepening by the day. As Hezbollah’s military capabilities decline, fears are growing that internal conflict could erupt in Lebanon, a country already torn by sectarian divisions and long-standing political instability.
According to reports, Hezbollah supporters in Beirut were seen reacting with tears and gunfire upon confirmation of Nasrallah’s death. Gunfire broke out overnight in the group’s stronghold of southern Beirut, bringing both grief and a sense of foreboding about what would happen next.
Even Hezbollah’s staunchest opponents are wary of the potential chaos created by Nasrallah’s death. “What will happen to us now?” said Yusra, a 60-year-old woman who fled the border town of Yarin after her home was destroyed by Israeli bombs. “I don’t know if it’s there anymore,” she said, now taking refuge in a school-shelter in Beirut. There is a growing fear of internal clashes between the country’s fractured political players – as seen in 2008 and 2021.

what are they saying

According to Middle East expert James Dorsey, Nasrallah’s killing is a serious warning to Israel’s opponents. “The killing of Nasrallah is the icing on the cake,” he told AFP. “If you’re Iran, if you’re Syria, if you’re the Houthis, if you’re an Iraqi Shia group and obviously many other groups in the Middle East, you have to pay very close attention to your security.”
According to an Israeli security official, many rulers in the region were grateful that Israel was going after terrorist groups. The Israeli security official said, “The region is monitoring the war… They are watching very, very carefully.” “They know we’re fighting their fight now.”
Meanwhile, across Israel’s political spectrum, opinions vary on the attacks and their broader implications. Some Israeli moderates, while supporting the military’s efforts, are pushing for a diplomatic solution. “It is time for a settlement,” the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper wrote in an editorial, advocating for diplomatic talks that could lead to the return of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and reduce the possibility of further escalation. “
However, voices on the right are urging the Israeli military to continue its offensive. “Israel would do well not to focus too much on its achievements,” wrote Yoav Limor in the conservative Israel Hayom newspaper. He warned that only through further military action, including a possible ground invasion of Lebanon, could Israel ensure its security.
For Netanyahu, Nasrallah’s death and the broader military campaign against Hezbollah represent a confirmation of his long-standing hardline stance on Israel’s enemies. In a fiery speech at the UN General Assembly last week, Netanyahu declared that Israel had “settled the score” with Nasrallah and that the region was on the cusp of “a historic turning point”.
Netanyahu said, “We are winning. We are determined to continue attacking our enemies, to return our residents to their homes, and to bring back all our hostages. We do not forget them even for a moment.”

between the lines

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah has been the deadliest since a 34-day war between the two sides in 2006, and Nasrallah’s death is the most significant blow since the group’s founding. But the broader effects of the assassination reach beyond Lebanon’s borders.
Iran, Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, now faces a strategic dilemma. For years, Hezbollah has served as Iran’s deterrent against Israeli aggression. Its missile stockpile and military capabilities were designed to counter any Israeli attempt to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now, with Hezbollah weakened, Iran must decide whether to retaliate or realign its strategy.
So far, Iran’s response has been muted. President Massoud Pezeshkian has stopped short of threatening direct retaliation, warning that there will be consequences for Nasrallah’s death. Yet Tehran appears cautious, unwilling to further escalate tensions at a time when its own economy is under pressure due to international sanctions.
According to Vali Nasr, a former high-ranking State Department adviser and current professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, it is unlikely that Tehran will take direct steps to support Hezbollah.
“Iran is not ready yet because it is not the right time,” Vali Nasr told the Wall Street Journal. “But a right time will come.”
Iran’s reluctance to immediately retaliate may also be due to broader geopolitical changes taking place in the region. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led states, which have historically been at odds with Iran, have been quietly supporting Israel’s moves against Hezbollah, viewing the group as a destabilizing force in the region. While Saudi Arabia has publicly called for peace, its silence over Nasrallah’s death signals a shift in regional dynamics.

what will happen next

The question remains whether Israel will launch a ground invasion of Lebanon. While Israeli forces have achieved significant success from the air, many military analysts believe that ground operations may be necessary to completely destroy Hezbollah’s remaining military infrastructure. However, a ground war would be risky, potentially drawing Israel into a protracted conflict reminiscent of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
For Lebanon, the immediate concern is survival. The country, already struggling with economic collapse, is now facing the largest displacement crisis in its history. Humanitarian organizations have warned that shelters are becoming increasingly overcrowded, and the situation is becoming dire with no functioning government to coordinate relief efforts.
The wider area is also on edge. The weakening of Hezbollah could embolden other anti-Iranian forces in the Middle East, from Syria to Iraq, to challenge Tehran’s influence. At the same time, the void left by Nasrallah’s death could give rise to new power struggles within Hezbollah and even within Lebanon.

(with inputs from agencies)