Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. (AI image for representation only.)
The possibility of Iran building a nuclear bomb is not a question of distant speculation but a matter of immediate geopolitical concern, especially as tensions between Israel and Iran have risen in the wake of high-profile killings by Hamas. Hezbollah Leader.
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- On October 1, 2024, Iran fired more than 200 missiles at Israel, in what was largely seen as a symbolic show of force. The missiles were intercepted with little damage, but the attack underlined rising tensions between the two countries. israeli prime minister
benjamin netanyahu Israel responded swiftly, promising that Iran would “make it pay”, while US President Joe Biden cautioned against an overly aggressive response, urging Israel to act “proportionately”. - It is the second significant Iranian missile attack this year, following a similar attack in April. Israel intercepted most of the projectiles with its advanced missile defense systems, but the psychological and political impact of these attacks is profound.
- Israel now faces a dilemma about how to respond – whether to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could spark a regional war, or continue its more aggressive efforts to target Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere. The restrained approach can be continued.
why it matters
- Iran’s missile attacks against Israel, following the assassination of key leaders such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, indicate that Tehran is under significant pressure.
axis of resistance Which includes Iran-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, they have suffered a severe blow. Ali Waze of the International Crisis Group says Iran’s missile attacks represent a series of humiliations at the hands of Israel. Nevertheless, given Israel’s strong defense systems, these missile attacks are at best symbolic. - Iran’s leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is also suffering from a loss of credibility across the region. Losing top allies in Lebanon and Gaza has prompted Tehran to retaliate militarily, but with limited success. The missile barrage in April and the recent 200-missile attack intercepted by Israel have been largely ineffective. It seems that Iran is playing for survival.
- As a result, Iranian government radicals may push the regime to take a risky gamble and attempt to amass a nuclear weapon.
- If Iran develops nuclear weapons, it would dramatically change the balance of power in the Middle East and increase the risk of large-scale war.
- Israel, which has long expressed concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, faces an unprecedented threat on its borders.
- This situation also has global implications, as countries such as the US and its allies could be drawn into a broader conflict, especially given their long-term commitments to Israel’s security.
zoom in
- Israel has long considered Iran’s nuclear program an existential threat. If it believed Iran was on the verge of developing a bomb, it might be forced to take action – possibly by launching air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the risks of such a move are high. Iran has spread its nuclear infrastructure across the country, with key facilities deeply buried, making a successful attack difficult and requiring extensive military coordination.
- To complicate matters further, Israel is already fighting on two fronts: against Hamas in Gaza, and against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Opening a third front with Iran could deplete Israeli military resources and increase the risk of Hezbollah launching a more aggressive counteroffensive from Lebanon.
How quickly can Iran make a nuclear bomb?
- Iran’s nuclear program has been the subject of international tension for decades, but its progress has accelerated following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). Since America’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, Iran has gradually increased its steps.
uranium enrichment Reducing the so-called “breakout time” – the period required to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. According to various reports, this breakout time is now estimated to be only a few months, maybe even a few weeks. - Iranian officials insist that their program is peaceful, but the level of uranium enrichment suggests otherwise. Enrichment at more than 60% – well above the JCPOA limit – suggests the potential to create weapons-grade uranium at 90%.
- According to some reports, Iran’s nuclear program has advanced to the point where “breakout time” – the time needed to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb – has decreased to a mere few weeks. A report published in August by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based private organization, claimed, “Iran can now rapidly detonate within days, using only its deeply buried Fordo facility. “
- However, according to a New York Times article, some nuclear experts believe Iran will need months, possibly up to a year, to develop a nuclear weapon rather than just weeks.
- Dr. Houston G. Wood, a retired professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of Virginia and an expert on nuclear centrifuges and nuclear issues, told the NYT: “I don’t think there is any danger of an explosion in Iran this year.” Nuclear weapons.”
- “It will take months, not weeks,” said Siegfried S. Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico.
- However, nuclear weapons production involves much more than uranium enrichment. Iran would still need to develop the technology to design, test, and deploy a nuclear device. Experts suggest that although Iran may soon have enough material to build a bomb, the full weaponization process, including the creation of a deliverable warhead, could take a year or more.
what are they saying
- Some experts argue that Iran’s leadership may be seeking nuclear capability as leverage, but may be cautious about rushing to complete a weapon due to potential international repercussions. “I don’t think Iran wants a major regional war,” John Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told AFP. However, as Israeli attacks have weakened its alliances and proxy groups across the region, Iran may find that the nuclear option is one of the few cards it has left to play.
- Ali Waze, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that “Failing to respond to these Israeli attacks could undermine Iran’s credibility with its allies, but moving too quickly on the nuclear front could harm Israel or the US.” “There may be military intervention.”
between the lines
- Tehran is likely aware that openly developing nuclear weapons would risk preemptive strikes by Israel or even the US-led coalition. Nevertheless, the possibility of using its nuclear advances as a bargaining tool to extract economic and political concessions cannot be ruled out.
- Furthermore, Israeli air defenses, including Iron Dome and David’s Sling, have intercepted most Iranian missile attacks, keeping direct damage relatively low. US military intelligence expert Kay Campbell told AFP that “It appears that Iran is deliberately staying below the Israeli air defense saturation point.” It signals that Iran aims to send a political message rather than cause mass casualties, signaling restraint while still building up its military strength.
what will happen next
- The United States, under President Joe Biden, has walked a fine line between supporting Israel’s right to self-defense and preventing a broader regional war. In response to Iran’s latest missile attack, Biden stressed the need for a “proportional” response while strongly rejecting any potential Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. When Biden was asked whether he would support an Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuclear sites, he said, “The answer is no.”
- Washington knows that an attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would trigger a broader conflict that could draw global powers. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in constant touch with European allies and is warning Israel against turning the conflict into a full-scale regional war. The international community is eager to prevent a new wave of instability, especially given strained global energy markets. As a major oil producer, Iran has the potential to disrupt the flow of crude oil, which could cause a shock to global economies.
- Despite Biden’s objections, Israel may eventually take matters into its own hands, especially if Iran’s nuclear program gets close to a weapon. Some analysts speculate that Israel could launch a surgical strike, but the risks are too great. Iran’s facilities are not only spread across different sites, but many are also fortified underground, complicating efforts to neutralize them in a single attack.
- After all, the question of how quickly Iran could build a nuclear bomb looms large over the region, especially with the Israel-Iran conflict. While Tehran appears far away from creating a fully operational weapon, the timeline is slipping dangerously short. Iran’s enrichment program puts it at the cusp of breakout potential, and in the tense environment of the Middle East, the next few weeks or months could mark a turning point.
(with inputs from agencies)
