New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a landslide victory in Haryana, securing its highest ever number of seats and paving the way for a third consecutive term in power. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference (NC) and Congress The alliance emerged as the frontrunner in the race to form the government.
In the first elections held after the Lok Sabha elections in June, the BJP defied exit poll projections and analysts’ expectations. The Congress faced a serious lesson, while the National Conference won a clear victory, bringing the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.
According to the Election Commission, the BJP won 48 of the 90 seats in Haryana, setting the stage for a third consecutive term in power. In Jammu and Kashmir, it secured 29 out of 90 seats and the NC-Congress got an impressive 48 seats. BJP’s success in Haryana has served as a timely boost ahead of the upcoming Maharashtra, Jharkhand elections. On the other hand, the big setback for Congress has dashed its hopes of capitalizing on the gains made in the Lok Sabha elections.
Here are the highlights of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir election results:
huge incentive for PM Modi and BJP
Victory in Haryana is actually an anti-historic victory for PM Modi and BJP. The party has managed to recover from the below-expected performance in the 2024 general elections in the state and has also improved its seat tally from the 2019 assembly elections in Haryana. Winning for the third time in any state after being in power for 10 years is a remarkable achievement in itself. Doing this in Haryana, the pioneer of ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’ politics in India, is indeed a historic achievement.
Credit should be given to PM Modi and BJP for not losing hope after the 2024 general elections and fighting Haryana elections as per their plans and agenda. In fact, under the leadership of PM Modi and Amit Shah, BJP has completely changed the game of electoral politics; They fight to the end, even when the wind is blowing against the party. He has done the same in Haryana also.
BJP benefits in Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections
If there was any doubt about PM Modi and BJP winning the elections in difficult circumstances, then Haryana has completely removed it. BJP has won from a seemingly impossible situation. The respect was there even when both BJP and Congress won 5 seats each in the 2024 general elections. But now BJP has again established its dominance in Haryana.
Victory in Haryana will provide a huge boost and momentum to the saffron party in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. Sometimes, politics behaves like stock markets and a positive move can make the difference between victory and defeat. There is no doubt that Haryana will serve as a big morale boost for BJP workers in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
BJP’s mantra: ‘Change CM, keep the state intact’
BJP’s policy of changing candidates and changing CMs to avoid anti-incumbency wave seems to be successful once again.
Lately, “change the chief minister, keep the state” has become a default tactic of the BJP if it senses an anti-incumbency mood among the voters. For example, it implemented this strategy in Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Tripura. Out of these four states, BJP was successful in capturing three.
It seems that the ‘change CM, keep the state’ policy has helped BJP create history in Haryana. BJP has become the first party to score a hat-trick in the state.
BJP vs Congress: Same old story?
The rise of the BJP can be largely attributed to the decline of the Congress. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has had an overwhelming success in any direct fight with the Congress.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s strike rate against the Congress was over 90%, with both the parties in a direct contest.
However, Congress has tried to make the fight more respectable, especially since Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo visit. In the 2024 general elections, BJP’s strike rate was 70% less than that of Congress.
Furthermore, the fighting was getting worse assembly electionsIn the last two years, Congress had managed to win Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka in a direct fight with the saffron party.
It was said that Haryana was a losing election for Congress and the party has lost. Now BJP seems to be returning to its winning path against Congress.
There may not be a direct contest between these two parties in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, but BJP will find its chances wherever it is in a direct fight with Congress.
Congress: No first-counterpart in India block now?
After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress has clearly emerged as the main pole of opposition politics. In 2024, the Congress almost doubled its numbers from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the party was able to officially claim the post of Leader of the Opposition.
Today’s results will once again raise questions in the India Bloc regarding the place of Congress in opposition politics. To its credit, the Congress is still the only party that can claim a pan-India presence among the India block parties.
Till now Congress has government in three states Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. AAP is the only other opposition party which has governments in 2 states Punjab and Haryana.
Nevertheless, regional parties will now try to drive a hard bargain with the Congress in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Index of opposition unity: why it matters
It seems that BJP has benefited from the division of votes among the opposition parties in Haryana. The decision of Congress and AAP to contest elections separately has gone in favor of the saffron party. Although AAP has managed to get only 1.7% votes in Haryana, it could have made a big difference if the party had fought in alliance with the Congress. In a close contest, even a difference of one percent vote share can have a huge impact on the election results. If a party’s vote-seat conversion ratio is not high, even a 1% decline in vote share could lead to a loss of about 60 seats, as happened with the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
INLD-BSP and JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance in Haryana has further complicated the opposition field. There were many independent candidates then, who contributed to the division of opposition votes in their own ways. Overall, the low index of opposition unity has worked well in favor of the BJP in the Haryana elections.
divided voting is here to stay
Over the past few years, voters have increasingly embraced the policy of a horse over a course. They are voting differently in national, assembly and local elections. Haryana’s results are the latest indicator of this trend. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both BJP and Congress won 5 seats. This was a huge boost for the Congress as the party did not win any seats in the 2019 general elections. Based on its Lok Sabha performance, the Congress was hoping to make a comeback in Haryana, especially after 10 years of BJP rule in the state.
But, voters chose to hold elections separately from the Lok Sabha elections. In a way, this is a sign of maturing and deepening of democracy in India. State elections are separate from Lok Sabha elections. They are more localized and require micro management. Candidates and local issues matter more to voters in assembly elections than in Lok Sabha elections.
In Haryana, the BJP is a clear beneficiary of this split-voting trend. No two elections are alike, but the party should be wary of this trend for the Delhi Assembly elections.
Aam Aadmi Party has suffered a setback in Haryana
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on Tuesday suffered a crushing defeat in the Haryana state elections, the home state of party leader Arvind Kejriwal. Most of the AAP candidates also had to forfeit their deposits. The party managed to secure only 1.79 percent of the total vote share, although it had contested all 90 seats.
The disappointing results are a blow to Kejriwal, who was featured prominently as the face of the party’s campaign with the slogan ‘Haryana ka Lal’. The results come just days after Kejriwal resigned as Delhi CM and now he faces another hurdle as Delhi elections are just four months away. The results have also sparked debate over whether the party made a mistake by not allying with the Congress for the state elections.
The party was successful in opening its account in Jammu and Kashmir as its candidate Mehraj Malik defeated BJP’s Gajay Singh Rana by 4,538 votes from Doda seat.
Leadership crisis in Congress and time to rethink strategy
Despite anti-incumbency wave, protests by farmers, wrestlers and schemes like ‘Agniveer’, Congress failed to take back Haryana from BJP. Although exit polls had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress, the party failed to convert the Lok Sabha momentum into numbers. The party needs to rethink its strategy to contest the assembly elections, especially given the infighting.
The party high command has faced a tough time in addressing leadership claims after the victory in states like Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana where the Congress is in power.
In Karnataka, the Congress leadership had to work hard to resolve the tussle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar for the top post in May last year. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress high command faced a similar dilemma in choosing between two strong contenders – Sukhwinder Singh Sukku and Pratibha Singh, wife of the party’s former chief minister, late Virbhadra Singh. Telangana has also given tense moments to the Congress leadership after the party comes to power in the state in December 2023. Revanth Reddy, who had been at the forefront of the campaign, was announced as the CM post after two days of suspense as his rivals lobbied hard for it. Top job.
In fact, Rajasthan is perhaps the biggest example of how the rivalry between two state leaders has put the Congress leadership to the test and put the party on the back foot. The party chose Ashok Gehlot as chief minister after winning the state in 2018, ignoring the claims of then state chief Sachin Pilot. While the Congress high command managed to persuade Sachin, no lasting agreement was reached between the two leaders and the party eventually lost the state to the BJP in 2023.
Time for exit polls to come out?
Almost all the exit polls in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections turned out to be completely wrong. He may have got the direction right but the overall results were clearly contrary to his predictions.
In the latest round, the headlines after the exit polls were: Clear win for Congress in Haryana and NC-Congress lead in Jammu and Kashmir. Actual results show: Historic mandate for BJP in Haryana and clear victory for NC-Congress in Jammu and Kashmir.
So, to further damage his reputation, the exit polls have got both the trends and the margins in Haryana completely wrong. He got some relief in Jammu and Kashmir, where the results were in line with his predictions. But exit polls need to seriously revisit their methodology and sample selection.
The next round of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand may prove to be more decisive for the entire enterprise of exit and opinion polls.
