Democratic victory in Indiana. Republican victory in New Mexico. And an election where Missouri was decided by less than 4,000 votes.
They have all happened in the last twenty years.
These results are a little higher than today’s general knowledge questions (the answers are 2008, 2004 and again 2008). At the time, they raised eyebrows and changed our understanding of voters.
Surprises happen during election week. And when the national race looks so close, an unexpected change could decide who wins the White House.
Harris still leads Trump by 270, but it’s anyone’s game
Vice President Harris still has the lead in this week’s forecast. It is estimated that Harris will secure at least 241 Electoral College votes compared to Trump’s 219.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Forecasts.
His gains are no bigger than September, and as this column mentionedBattleground states are usually – and most often – won and lost simultaneously. The forecast calls for 78 votes in six toss-up states, enough to give either candidate a win on election night.
National polls show a tight race: A Quinnipiac survey Harris and former President Trump are tied with likely voters at 48%-48%, while Marist Is Candidates are at 50%-48%, which is within the margin of sampling error in the survey.
Fox News power rankings: Trump leads on two top issues
No poll shows Trump slipping with national voters. Other recent surveys showed that point value of corrosion After the presidential debate in September.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Map.
Battleground state elections have been rare. ,hurricane helen devastated communities in Georgia and North Carolina, and hurricane milton Will make landfall in Florida soon. This will affect the accuracy of voting in these areas.)
Overall, this race is still anyone’s game.
All eyes are on the October surprise
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance debated a week ago in New York City. Vance had mostly broken the character that Democrats had built for him, while Walz walked out of the gate floundering.
A flash pole No candidate was shown winning on the night. As always, let’s wait for the results of several surveys conducted in the weeks after the debate to properly assess the polling impact.
This was the only scheduled event that could surprise voters this month. (Owned by Fox News Media Proposed The second Harris-Trump debate later in October.)
Four weeks until election night.
Undoubtedly, it is the unexpected events of past years that have further contributed to the reshaping of the race. And two categories of incidents have already resurfaced.
- severe weather: Hurricane Sandy struck the Northeast in late October 2012. President Obama’s collaboration with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was a historic moment. This year, Helen and Milton are testing the candidates. Trump visited Georgia and North Carolina last week and Harris was in Asheville with Governor Roy Cooper over the weekend.
- foreign policy: A video of Osama bin Laden four days before the 2004 election refocused attention on the race to 9/11, national security, and America’s war on terrorism. Yesterday marked one year since the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel and the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia; Both are reminders of global instability during the Biden administration.
Fox News Poll: Voters cite higher prices as biggest motivator for voting
Polarization will limit the impact of these events on horse racing. But keep an eye on independents for Harris and Trump in the coming weeks. those voters Prepared 5% of voters in 2020, and they broke for President Biden by 15 points; Recent polls have put Harris in the ballparkTrump needs to overcome that to possibly win the race.
Two states that may surprise in November
Fox News Power Rankings Likely D and Likely R Race.
There are nine “potential” races on the Power Rankings map. The two that will have the biggest impact on the race are Florida and Virginia.
Former President Trump improved his performance Florida In the 2020 presidential election, their margin reached nearly 372,000 votes.
This is a 3.4-point win, or their second-closest win of the cycle. (The toss-up in the rankings was closest to North Carolina, which it won by 1.3 points.)
Florida is likely ranked R in the power rankings.
Republicans have strong advantages. The state’s white working-class and senior voters lean toward Trump, while its large Hispanic population, particularly the Cuban and Venezuelan communities, has shifted in recent years.
The GOP won big at every level in the midterms and gained over 1 million voter registrations, and the most obvious thing is that the Democratic Party is not making significant investments.
Democrats hope that a competitive Senate race, where incumbent Republican Rick Scott has personally spent more than $8 million, means the presidential election is closer than people think. Florida is also one of three competing states with an abortion measure on the ballot.
It will take a tough night for Harris to flip the Sunshine State. It will also be the first state to go blue after the battleground state.
Florida remains at Potential R in the rankings.
Trump’s victory in Virginia This would also be shocking, especially since Biden won this state by more than 10 points in 2020.
Virginia is potentially ranked D in the power rankings.
The state has a higher proportion of black, suburban and college-educated voters than the rest of the country, and all three groups help Democrats increase margins. While Republicans talked up Virginia after the presidential debate in June, the race has changed, and neither party is making a big investment in the state today.
Harris ahead in Virginia.
Some polls show the race is far from over for the GOP. A survey A September poll of registered voters from Virginia Commonwealth University put Harris at 47% and Trump at 37%. A Washington Post survey First This month Harris had 50% and Trump had 42%.
Still, it would be a blow in the other direction for Old Dominion to reject Harris. Virginia remains a potential D race.
four weeks until election night
So far 15 lakh voters have cast their votes.
The countdown to election night continues and more than 15 lakh voters have cast their votes. Early voting has now started:
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Harris ticket is issued media tour While Trump will hold a rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania this week. GOP has done surprisingly good There in recent years.
