In a monastery beneath the snow-capped mountains in Northern India, a Buddhist monk is tasked with protecting Lord Shiva. Dalai Lama and is concerned about predicting the future of his people.
The Dalai Lama turns 89 on Saturday, and China insists it will choose his successor as Tibet’s main spiritual leader. That has left Tibet’s main state oracle medium pondering what might come next.
“His Holiness is the fourteenth Dalai Lama, then there will be a fifteenth, sixteenth, seventeenth,” said the medium, known as Nechung. “Countries change leaders and then the story ends. But in Tibet it works differently.”
tibetan buddhist They believe that learned monks are reincarnated as newborn babies after death. The Dalai Lama, who is currently recuperating from a medical procedure in the United States, has said he will clear up questions about succession – including whether and where he will be reborn – around his ninetieth birthday. As part of the reincarnation identification process, the medium will enter a trance to consult the oracle.
The current Dalai Lama is a charismatic figure who popularized Buddhism internationally and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for keeping the Tibetan cause alive in exile. Beijing sees him as a dangerous separatist, though he has embraced a “middle way” of peacefully seeking genuine autonomy and religious freedom within China.
The Dalai Lama turned 89 on Saturday. (AFP via Getty Images/File)
Any successor would be inexperienced and unknown on the global stage. That has raised concerns about whether the movement will slow down or become more fierce amid growing tensions between Beijing and Washington, which has long been a source of bipartisan support for Tibet’s government-in-exile, the Central Tibetan Administration.
The CTA and its partners in the West and India, which has hosted the Dalai Lama in the Himalayan foothills for more than six decades, are preparing for a future without his influential presence.
President Joe Biden The US is expected to soon sign a bill that will require the State Department to refute Chinese “misinformation” that Tibet, which was annexed by the People’s Republic of China in 1951, has been part of China since ancient times.
“China wants recognition that Tibet has been part of China throughout history, and this bill suggests it will be relatively easy for Tibet supporters to persuade Western governments to recognize this broad claim,” said Robert Barnett, a Tibet expert at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies.
US lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), met with the Dalai Lama last month to celebrate Congress’ passage of the bill, which CTA head Sikyong Penpa Tsering described as “a major achievement.”
The Sikyong, or political leader, told Reuters the bill is part of a strategic shift away from emphasising Chinese rights violations such as forced assimilation. He said since 2021, the CTA has lobbied two dozen countries, including the US, to publicly undermine Beijing’s narrative that Tibet has always been part of China.
With US support behind this strategy, he said, the exiles hope to push China to the negotiating table. “If every country keeps saying Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China, what reason is there for China to talk to us?”
The Chinese foreign ministry said in response to questions from Reuters that it was ready to discuss with the Dalai Lama about his “personal future” provided he “genuinely abandons his stance of dividing the motherland” and recognises Tibet as an inseparable part of China.
Tibetans take part in a protest march to mark the 65th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule, in the northern hill town of Dharamsala, India, March 10, 2024. (Reuters/Adnan Abidi/File)
Beijing, which has not held official talks with the Dalai Lama’s representatives since 2010, has also urged Biden not to sign the bill.
The office of the Dalai Lama, who has apologised for comments made in recent years about women and a young child, sent the Sikyong an interview request.
Succession questions
Most historians say Tibet was absorbed into the Mongol Empire during the 13th-14th century Yuan dynasty, which also covered much of present-day China. Beijing says it has established its sovereign claim, though scholars believe the relationship has varied considerably over the centuries and that remote Tibet has governed itself for much of the time.
The People’s Liberation Army entered Tibet in 1950 and declared its “peaceful liberation.” After a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, a young Dalai Lama fled into exile in India.
In 1995 atheist China and the Dalai Lama separately identified two boys as the Panchen Lama, the second most important Tibetan Buddhist leader. The Dalai Lama’s identity was taken away by Chinese authorities and he has not been seen since.
Many Buddhists view Beijing’s selection as illegitimate, though most expect a similar, parallel selection for the next Dalai Lama, as the Chinese government believes the Dalai Lama must be reincarnated, and must approve a successor.
In this photo shared by the Office of the Dalai Lama, U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, is greeted by Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama at the Tibetan leader’s residence in Dharamsala, India, June 19, 2024. (Tenzin Choejor/Dalai Lama Office, via AP)
During a visit to Dharamsala last month, U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, a Republican and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Chinese officials “have tried to interfere in the succession of the Dalai Lama, but we will not allow that to happen.”
India, whose troops clashed with China near the Tibetan Plateau in 2022, has been less vocal about its position on succession.
“The US doesn’t have to worry about border infiltration as much as India does,” said Donald Camp, a former top South Asia official at the US National Security Council.
But observers of Indian diplomacy say that as home to tens of thousands of Tibetans and a rising voice on the global stage, Delhi will be dragged into the fray. Aggressive commentators have already called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to meet the Dalai Lama to put pressure on China.
Delhi’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the succession, but its former ambassador to China, Ashok Kantha, said India “would not be comfortable with China attempting to control the process.”
“We have privately told the Chinese that the best option for them is to negotiate with the Dalai Lama and his representatives,” Kantha said. “After the fourteenth Dalai Lama, we don’t know what will happen.”
The respect the Dalai Lama enjoys among Tibetans in exile has kept frustrations and formal pressure for independence in check, though it is unclear whether this balance will be maintained after his death.
Sonam Tsering, general secretary of the Tibetan Youth Congress, said his advocacy group respects the middle way but, like many other young Tibetans, wants complete independence.
He said Tibetans are currently focusing on supporting the Dalai Lama in fulfilling his wish to return to his homeland before his death.
But, he added, “if the wish is not fulfilled, the emotional explosion that happens, the emotional challenges that happen, it’s very hard to think about.”
Sikyong said the CTA’s new emphasis on challenging China’s narrative has united pro-independence Tibetans with those following the middle path, as the historical status of Tibet is a matter of consensus.
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Thousands of Buddhists and well-wishers from around the world will gather on Saturday to pray and celebrate the longevity of a leader who represents their strongest hope for an eventual return to Tibet.
But time is running out for the Dalai Lama and his people.
