From the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 to the ouster of Imran Khan as Prime Minister in Pakistan in April 2022, and from mass protests in Sri Lanka forcing Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country in July 2022 to the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh that has already forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign, the political dynamics in South Asia have completely reversed in just three years.
Afghanistan: Taliban take over after US leaves
The political turmoil in Afghanistan began in 2021 with the Taliban’s rapid military offensive, which culminated in their capture of Kabul on August 15. This marked the end of the US-backed Afghan government, which had been in place since the US invasion in 2001.
The offensive began on May 1, 2021, coinciding with the withdrawal of US troops, and rapidly escalated as the Taliban captured key provincial capitals and regions across the country.
The fall of Kabul occurred with little resistance, resulting in the flight of President Ashraf Ghani and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan once again.
Even US intelligence and defense agencies were surprised by how quickly the Taliban recaptured the country
Since coming to power, Afghanistan has been facing a serious humanitarian crisis and its relations with Pakistan have been deteriorating due to terrorism-related incidents. Islamabad has repeatedly accused Kabul of harboring terrorist organizations that have been carrying out large-scale and deadly attacks in the border areas of Pakistan.
The economy has declined significantly, estimated to have fallen by 30% since the Taliban returned to power. More than 28 million people, or two-thirds of the population, are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, while 17 million are facing acute hunger.
The Taliban’s harsh interpretation of Islamic law has led to severe restrictions on women’s rights, including bans on education and employment, further worsening the economic situation.
The response of the international community has been largely critical, with many countries imposing sanctions and not recognising the Taliban government. Although the Indian government has not yet officially recognised the Taliban regime as the government of Afghanistan, trade relations have remained stable.
Pakistan: Imran Khan steps down amid anti-army protests
In Pakistan, the political landscape changed dramatically with the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan from office in April 2022. Khan, who came to power in 2018, was ousted through a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, seen by many as the culmination of political maneuvering by the military and opposition parties.
Khánh’s relations with the military, which initially supported him, deteriorated over a variety of issues, including his attempts to establish civilian control over military appointments and foreign policy decisions.
The withdrawal of support by the military was a major factor in his political downfall, as it has traditionally played a key role in Pakistan’s governance. His ouster was followed by a flurry of legal challenges and corruption allegations, which Khan and his supporters claim were politically motivated.
Khan’s political battle intensified after his removal from office. In August 2023, he was arrested on charges of corruption and inciting violence against the military, following which his supporters staged massive protests.
The political atmosphere in Pakistan remains tense, with Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) facing massive repression.
Pakistan’s economy is in shambles, struggling with high inflation, energy shortages, a devalued currency and a debt crisis, caused largely by heavy debt taken from China for projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative.
Political instability has further complicated economic reform efforts, with international investors concerned. The Shahbaz Sharif government has received financial aid from the IMF, but the conditions attached to such aid require stringent economic reforms, leading to growing public discontent.
Sri Lanka: Rajapaksa forced to flee due to massive protests
In July 2022, Sri Lanka witnessed unprecedented mass protests, forcing the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
The protests were sparked by widespread discontent over the government’s mishandling of the economy, which was in crisis due to a combination of factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, rising global fuel prices, mounting debt to China, and mismanagement of public resources.
The economic crisis in Sri Lanka manifested itself in severe shortages of essential commodities, including food, fuel, and medicine.
Inflation skyrocketed, and the government imposed austerity measures such as power cuts and fuel rationing, further angering the public.
The protests began peacefully but grew into a massive movement demanding Rajapaksa’s resignation, culminating in attacks on government buildings and ultimately Rajapaksa’s flight from the country.
With Rajapaksa’s departure, the new government led by Ranil Wickremesinghe faces the challenging task of tackling the economic crisis and restoring public confidence.
The government has sought aid from international financial institutions and implemented austerity measures to stabilize the economy. However, public discontent remains high and protests continue as citizens demand accountability and transparency from their leaders.
On September 21, presidential elections will be held for the first time after unrest in the country.
Bangladesh: Hasina resigned, fled to India
Bangladesh was plunged into a political crisis on 5 August 2024 when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina abruptly fled to India after weeks of nationwide protests turned violent, leaving at least 300 people dead.
The protests, initially started by students opposing a government employment quota system, grew into wider demonstrations against Hasina’s administration over allegations of corruption, economic mismanagement and a crackdown on dissent. Rising inflation and economic challenges similar to those in neighbouring countries further fuelled public discontent.
On the day of her resignation, Hasina reportedly fled the country as protesters marched towards her residence, violating a nationwide curfew.
Following this, Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman announced that a provisional government would be formed to restore order.
President Mohammad Shahabuddin on Tuesday announced the dissolution of the country’s parliament to form an interim administration.
In further developments, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Khaleda Zia was released from jail.
78-year-old Zia, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, is hospitalised due to ill health. In 2018, she was found guilty of corruption and sentenced to 17 years in prison.
There had been a long-running feud between him and Hasina and she was accused of abusing her position by stealing donations worth approximately $250,000 meant for a trust for an orphanage.
The situation in the country remains tense as authorities try to form an interim government.
Historically, Zia and the BNP have been seen as less friendly towards India than Hasina and her Awami League party.
The BNP’s anti-India stance is believed to be inspired by party founder Ziaur Rahman and his desire to keep Bangladesh away from India’s influence. The party has historically been close to Pakistan and China, with the ISI reportedly supporting the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh to install a pro-Pakistan government during BNP rule.
