After months of public optimism about the prospects for a ceasefire, Biden administration officials have grown pessimistic about the prospects for an end to the war between Israel and Hamas.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby acknowledged to reporters on Wednesday that “we are no closer to that goal than we were a week ago.” He described the prospects for a full agreement as “scary.”
“No agreement is in the near future,” one U.S. official said. The Wall Street Journal. “I’m not sure it’ll ever get done.”
Israelis point fingers Hamas Arab officials blame Israel for the killing of six hostages, including an American citizen, earlier this month Explosive pagers and walkie-talkies And air strikes were aimed at killing Hezbollah fighters, making a multi-front war more likely.
“There is no chance of that happening now,” said one Arab official after the recent campaign against Hezbollah. “Everyone is in a position to wait until after the election. The results will determine what may happen in the next administration.”
Members of the Quick Reaction Unit responding to Hezbollah rocket attacks on Kibbutz Manara. (Kibbutz Manara Rapid Response Unit)
For Biden, a former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who has worked in diplomacy, failure to secure a deal would be a major blow to his legacy. It would mean a major challenge to his presidency. Chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan There was initially false hope that as war rages across the Middle East, peace – and the return of some 250 people taken hostage by Hamas on October 7 – was just around the corner.
Along with the recent attacks on Hezbollah, officials told the Journal another major reason for pessimism: the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel would be asked to release in order to repatriate its hostages.
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin told Fox News Digital he is less pessimistic about the prospects for a deal.
“Nobody has walked away from the negotiating table. They have not said their work is done. Qatar and Egypt are still engaging with us in these talks. The three-step agreed framework is still in place,” he said.
“The obstacles are on the implementation side, not the design side,” he said, adding that negotiations were still ongoing over which prisoners would be released, how their security would be guaranteed and what would be done with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Israel attacks Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
“These implementation issues keep coming up,” he said. “That’s where you hear Hamas increasing its demands, adding new names, expecting more. And that’s where you hear Israel, you know, demanding the Philadelphia corridor, which is suddenly out of the discussion, right? They both want as many benefits and advantages on their side as possible, which is why negotiators are frustrated.”
As the Biden administration tries to find ways to move forward on the agreement, public comments that had raised hope for months are now clashing with some private sentiment that ceasefire efforts are futile.
July 19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken He said that a ceasefire agreement would be reached in the near future.
“I believe we are inside the 10-yard line and moving toward the goal line of achieving an agreement that will lead to a ceasefire, bring hostages back home, and put us on a better path to building lasting peace and stability,” Blinken said.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Egypt this week to continue discussions on a ceasefire. (Egypt Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images)
On August 17, President Biden said he felt “optimistic” that a deal could be reached. “We are closer than we’ve ever been,” he said, adding that he was sending Blinken to Israel to continue “intensive efforts to get this deal done.”
On August 19, Blinken said Israel had “accepted the proposal” and that the next step was for Hamas to agree.
“The next important statement is for Hamas to say ‘yes,’ and then for all the expert negotiators to come together in the coming days to work on a clear understanding to implement the agreement,” Blinken said at a news conference in Tel Aviv.
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“This is a defining moment, perhaps the best, perhaps the last chance to bring the hostages home, to get a ceasefire and put everyone on a better path to lasting peace and security.”
But these comments came a day after Hamas said they would not agree to the proposal. They objected to Israel’s control over the Rafah and Philadelphia corridors, as Israeli Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu had demanded.
Then on September 2, Biden claimed the US was “very close” to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would lead to the release of the hostages. Asked why he was optimistic despite other deals failing, he said, “There is always hope.”
Also this week, Blinken expressed optimism about an agreement, though he warned after the pager explosion that “rising tensions” threatened to hamper progress.
“It is imperative that all parties avoid any actions that could escalate the conflict,” Blinken said at a news conference in Egypt.
President Biden has long claimed a ceasefire is near — even as officials privately express doubts. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)
He said his focus was on an agreement that would bring peace on all fronts, including Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Blinken said 15 of the 18 paragraphs of the agreement had been agreed upon by all parties.
He blamed the long wait for exchange of messages between the sides for hindering the talks.
“We’ve seen that in the intervening time, you can have an incident, an incident — something that makes the process more difficult, that threatens to slow it down, to stop it, to derail it — and anything of that nature, by definition, is probably not good in terms of achieving the outcome that we want, which is a ceasefire,” Blinken said.
After Egypt, he went to Paris To discuss the possibilities of an agreement with their European counterparts.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met the families of seven other victims on Wednesday. American hostages At a meeting held in Gaza, the families said they “expressed disappointment at the lack of concrete progress” to Sullivan.
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On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah described the pager attacks as a “declaration of war” in a televised address and said strikes against Israel would continue until the war with Gaza ended. Similarly, Israel’s defense minister vowed to continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, aiming to halt the group’s rocket and missile attacks so that some 70,000 Israelis living in the northern border region could return home.
