A American think tanks Warns that China can control Taiwan even without a direct invasion by isolating it, crippling its economy, and forcing it to bend to Beijing’s will through “grey zone” tactics.
According to CNN, this strategy could deny Taiwan access to essential supplies like energy and ports, without China ever firing a shot.The report released by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that Beijing has options other than a full-scale invasion or military blockade to achieve its goals.
Chinese Leader Xi JinpingChina’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan has fueled fears that the Communist Party may follow through on its promise to take control of the self-ruled island. China’s cool response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further fueled these concerns. Analysts and military strategists typically consider two main options available to China: a full-scale invasion or a blockade. However, CSIS suggests that a third approach—quarantine—may be more challenging for the United States and other democracies to counter.
CSIS report show that ‘Grey Zone Strategy‘, China could employ its coast guard, maritime militia and other agencies to isolate Taiwan. This could include cutting off access to Taiwan’s ports and blocking the delivery of vital supplies. “China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, raising fears that tensions could escalate into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of invasion, but Beijing also has options to coerce, punish or occupy Taiwan,” the report said.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun issued a stern warning to those who support Taiwan independence. “We will take firm actions to prevent Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” Dong said, speaking through a translator. He criticized “external interference forces” for selling weapons to Taiwan and maintaining “illegal official contacts” with the island.
In recent times, China’s conflict with Taiwan is increasing. China Coast Guard The ships clashed with Philippine navy boats this week. Videos showed Beijing’s troops threatening Filipinos with axes and other sharp weapons, with Manila reporting that one of its soldiers had a thumb cut off in the confrontation instigated by China. The level of violence is significantly escalating from previous incidents near Second Thomas Shoal, for which both Beijing and Manila claimed responsibility.
China’s military and economic threats toward Taiwan have increased even more under Xi Jinping’s rule. The ruling Communist Party calls Taiwan its own and vows to “reunify” it with force if necessary. However, the CSIS report notes that Beijing has strong options it can use to avoid directly involving the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Instead, these options could put Taiwan or its supporters, such as the United States, in a position to launch a military conflict to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy.
China’s Coast Guard is considered a law enforcement agency, just like coast guards around the world. This allows it to regulate shipping around Taiwan in a quarantine rather than a blockade, which is considered an act of war under international law. “A quarantine is a law enforcement-led operation that regulates maritime or air traffic within a specific area, while a blockade is primarily military in nature,” the report elaborates. “The quarantine carried out by China’s Coast Guard is not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” and would put the US in a challenging position.
Below Taiwan Relations ActWashington is legally required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, including defensive weapons. President Joe Biden has said several times that he would use US troops to defend Taiwan, a stance that appears to be a departure from Washington’s previous policy of “strategic ambiguity.” However, if US military ships or aircraft interfere with an action characterized by China as a law enforcement operation, the US could be seen as initiating military hostilities.
China’s maritime capabilities far outweigh Taiwan’s. The Chinese Coast Guard has 150 sea vessels and 400 small vessels, comparable to the PLA Navy, the world’s largest navy. In contrast, Taiwan’s Coast Guard has just 10 sea vessels and about 160 small vessels, not enough to effectively cope with quarantine efforts. The report said limited search and seizure actions by Chinese authorities could also deter commercial operators from serving Taiwan, impacting its economy.
The impact on Taiwan’s air traffic would be just as significant. A warning to halt some flights by Chinese aircraft could have a broad deterrent effect, and China regularly flies military aircraft around the island. In the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. on Friday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported that 36 Chinese military aircraft had entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Unlike a blockade, the quarantine would not close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait, allowing China to avoid claims of obstructing international shipping. “If the quarantine is viewed as a law enforcement operation, China could easily declare the end of the operation and claim its objectives have been met,” the report indicated.
China does not even need to label its actions as a “quarantine” to isolate Taiwan. A chilling effect on shipping could be achieved by requiring customs declarations for ships before arriving in Taiwan and enforcing compliance. “Chinese law enforcement vessels would be authorized to board ships, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against non-compliant ships,” the report said.
By focusing on Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s busiest port, which handles 57% of Taiwan’s maritime imports and most energy imports, the island could become even more isolated.
However, outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report also highlighted several potential issues for China.
Carl Schuster, former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, suggests that maintaining the quarantine would be costly and time-consuming. “Taipei is not going to give up in less than 60 days,” Schuster asks. “Can Beijing sustain the effort and potential international response for that long?”
Efforts to change the status quo could also hurt China’s foreign trade. Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, points to the economic challenges already facing the Chinese Communist Party, including the struggle to recover from isolation due to Covid-19, falling growth rates and new trade restrictions.
Isolating Taiwan would have global economic repercussions given the island’s role in global supply chains, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. While most nations diplomatically recognise Beijing rather than Taiwan, the island has fostered informal ties with major Western democracies, strengthening these ties amid growing threats from Beijing.
“Historical evidence suggests that even severe blockades have limited coercive value, and limited quarantines can result in a rally around the flag effect,” says Siddharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Under pressure, the Taiwanese government could also declare independence, which Beijing has repeatedly warned could lead to armed conflict. “Then (the Communist Party) will have the option of either escalating tensions or suffering a major setback,” Kaushal warns.
For China, patience is key to achieving its goal of “reunification.” Escalation, let alone invasion, is also not “cost-efficient,” Patalano says, because war not only costs lives but also destroys national assets.
According to CNN, this strategy could deny Taiwan access to essential supplies like energy and ports, without China ever firing a shot.The report released by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that Beijing has options other than a full-scale invasion or military blockade to achieve its goals.
Chinese Leader Xi JinpingChina’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan has fueled fears that the Communist Party may follow through on its promise to take control of the self-ruled island. China’s cool response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further fueled these concerns. Analysts and military strategists typically consider two main options available to China: a full-scale invasion or a blockade. However, CSIS suggests that a third approach—quarantine—may be more challenging for the United States and other democracies to counter.
CSIS report show that ‘Grey Zone Strategy‘, China could employ its coast guard, maritime militia and other agencies to isolate Taiwan. This could include cutting off access to Taiwan’s ports and blocking the delivery of vital supplies. “China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, raising fears that tensions could escalate into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of invasion, but Beijing also has options to coerce, punish or occupy Taiwan,” the report said.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun issued a stern warning to those who support Taiwan independence. “We will take firm actions to prevent Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” Dong said, speaking through a translator. He criticized “external interference forces” for selling weapons to Taiwan and maintaining “illegal official contacts” with the island.
In recent times, China’s conflict with Taiwan is increasing. China Coast Guard The ships clashed with Philippine navy boats this week. Videos showed Beijing’s troops threatening Filipinos with axes and other sharp weapons, with Manila reporting that one of its soldiers had a thumb cut off in the confrontation instigated by China. The level of violence is significantly escalating from previous incidents near Second Thomas Shoal, for which both Beijing and Manila claimed responsibility.
China’s military and economic threats toward Taiwan have increased even more under Xi Jinping’s rule. The ruling Communist Party calls Taiwan its own and vows to “reunify” it with force if necessary. However, the CSIS report notes that Beijing has strong options it can use to avoid directly involving the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Instead, these options could put Taiwan or its supporters, such as the United States, in a position to launch a military conflict to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy.
China’s Coast Guard is considered a law enforcement agency, just like coast guards around the world. This allows it to regulate shipping around Taiwan in a quarantine rather than a blockade, which is considered an act of war under international law. “A quarantine is a law enforcement-led operation that regulates maritime or air traffic within a specific area, while a blockade is primarily military in nature,” the report elaborates. “The quarantine carried out by China’s Coast Guard is not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” and would put the US in a challenging position.
Below Taiwan Relations ActWashington is legally required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, including defensive weapons. President Joe Biden has said several times that he would use US troops to defend Taiwan, a stance that appears to be a departure from Washington’s previous policy of “strategic ambiguity.” However, if US military ships or aircraft interfere with an action characterized by China as a law enforcement operation, the US could be seen as initiating military hostilities.
China’s maritime capabilities far outweigh Taiwan’s. The Chinese Coast Guard has 150 sea vessels and 400 small vessels, comparable to the PLA Navy, the world’s largest navy. In contrast, Taiwan’s Coast Guard has just 10 sea vessels and about 160 small vessels, not enough to effectively cope with quarantine efforts. The report said limited search and seizure actions by Chinese authorities could also deter commercial operators from serving Taiwan, impacting its economy.
The impact on Taiwan’s air traffic would be just as significant. A warning to halt some flights by Chinese aircraft could have a broad deterrent effect, and China regularly flies military aircraft around the island. In the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. on Friday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported that 36 Chinese military aircraft had entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Unlike a blockade, the quarantine would not close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait, allowing China to avoid claims of obstructing international shipping. “If the quarantine is viewed as a law enforcement operation, China could easily declare the end of the operation and claim its objectives have been met,” the report indicated.
China does not even need to label its actions as a “quarantine” to isolate Taiwan. A chilling effect on shipping could be achieved by requiring customs declarations for ships before arriving in Taiwan and enforcing compliance. “Chinese law enforcement vessels would be authorized to board ships, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against non-compliant ships,” the report said.
By focusing on Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s busiest port, which handles 57% of Taiwan’s maritime imports and most energy imports, the island could become even more isolated.
However, outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report also highlighted several potential issues for China.
Carl Schuster, former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, suggests that maintaining the quarantine would be costly and time-consuming. “Taipei is not going to give up in less than 60 days,” Schuster asks. “Can Beijing sustain the effort and potential international response for that long?”
Efforts to change the status quo could also hurt China’s foreign trade. Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, points to the economic challenges already facing the Chinese Communist Party, including the struggle to recover from isolation due to Covid-19, falling growth rates and new trade restrictions.
Isolating Taiwan would have global economic repercussions given the island’s role in global supply chains, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. While most nations diplomatically recognise Beijing rather than Taiwan, the island has fostered informal ties with major Western democracies, strengthening these ties amid growing threats from Beijing.
“Historical evidence suggests that even severe blockades have limited coercive value, and limited quarantines can result in a rally around the flag effect,” says Siddharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Under pressure, the Taiwanese government could also declare independence, which Beijing has repeatedly warned could lead to armed conflict. “Then (the Communist Party) will have the option of either escalating tensions or suffering a major setback,” Kaushal warns.
For China, patience is key to achieving its goal of “reunification.” Escalation, let alone invasion, is also not “cost-efficient,” Patalano says, because war not only costs lives but also destroys national assets.
