On October 1, 2024, China celebrates the 75th anniversary of communist rule, a milestone that surpasses the Soviet Union’s 74-year tenure.
running news
- Despite this important milestone, the Chinese government did not participate in major celebrations, except for the flag-raising ceremony at Tiananmen Square.
- This may be because it is the 75th anniversary of
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) comes amid questions over the stability of China’s political system and whether it could face a collapse similar to the Soviet Union. - Expected, Chinese President
Xi Jinping The CCP is not focused on its achievements over the past 75 years but is more concerned about the future of the party and the country.
why it matters
- According to a report in the Economist, fear of Soviet-style collapse keeps Xi up at night, and his obsession with maintaining strong control over the CCP is a major theme in his speeches.
- China has indeed outlived the Soviet Union in its years of Communist rule, but Xi, who has appointed himself ‘President for Life’, is well aware that longevity is no guarantee of stability.
- The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, which unfolded against a backdrop of economic stagnation and political dysfunction, cast a long shadow over China’s leadership.
- Xi’s party faces its own weaknesses, exacerbated by declining economic growth and public discontent.
- with the memory of
soviet collapse Rising to prominence, Xi has put party loyalty above everything else, including economic development.
big picture
- The collapse of the Soviet Union has been a frequent topic in Xi’s speeches, media campaigns and party meetings. After 12 years in power, Xi is busy maintaining internal unity and stemming ideological drift.
- In his view, the collapse of the Soviet Union was not just caused by economic mismanagement, but by the loss of the party’s ideological and organizational discipline. The Economist reports that Nikita Khrushchev’s 1956 “secret speech” denouncing Stalin’s personality cult is seen by Xi as the moment when the Soviet Communist Party began to move toward weakness and eventual dissolution. Had given.
- Xi is determined to avoid such a fate. Under his leadership, China has seen an unprecedented crackdown on dissent, from the repression of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement to mass jailings of people.
Uyghur Muslims InXinjiang At the same time, he has doubled down on the party’s role in every aspect of society, from tightening controls on private enterprise to increasing censorship of the media and the Internet. - Over the past few years, Xi’s focus has shifted from promoting economic growth to ensuring absolute political loyalty, an approach that many argue is stifling China’s economic potential.
- Nevertheless, Xi consistently removed officials at all levels of government, from high-ranking Communist Party members, known as “tigers”, to small bureaucrats, known as “flies”, using Xi’s own blunt language. Have been. The scale of these purges resulted in the removal of millions of officials during his tenure.
what is he saying
- Xi’s speeches repeatedly mentioned the need for vigilance to prevent the fallacy that he believes led to the Soviet collapse. Xi said at a party congress in 2022, “We must always remain alert and determined to deal with the special challenges faced by a big party like ours so as to maintain the people’s support and remain as the long-term ruling party.” So that our position can be strengthened.” ” Since that speech, the phrase “the special challenges of a big party” has become a staple of CCP propaganda. This has been reiterated in party documents, academic papers and even a two-part state television documentary devoted to the topic of preventing the collapse, the Economist reports.
- Another revealing statement by Xi came during a classified speech to the CCP Central Committee in January 2023. In a partially released speech in March, he warned that “a fortress can be broken most easily from within. “We are the only ones who can defeat us.”
- This fear of internal collapse reflects Xi’s belief that external threats are secondary to the threats posed by internal division and loss of party discipline. While most analysts agree that the CCP does not currently face immediate internal divisions, the prospect of factionalism clearly worries Xi. His actions – from the removal of senior officials to ideological purges – are aimed at preventing any such divisions from taking root.
- As the Economist reports, Xi’s frequent mentions of Soviet history are not merely rhetorical devices; They serve to warn party members about the dangers of complacency. In 2021, around the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, a five-part documentary was broadcast across China that blamed Khrushchev’s condemnation of Stalin for igniting “historical nihilism” within the Soviet Party. The documentary argued that once the party began to question its past, its future was doomed. This narrative has been reinforced in countless party meetings and propaganda efforts aimed at reminding Chinese officials of the stakes involved in maintaining ideological purity and party discipline.
between the lines
- While Xi is concerned about the party’s internal stability, China’s economic trajectory presents a more immediate concern. The country’s economy, once the engine of its global rise, has entered a period of uncertainty. The faltering property market, high youth unemployment and a declining population are fueling a sense of pessimism prevalent in Chinese society. Many of China’s younger generation are becoming disillusioned with the promise of the “China Dream” and are adopting a more defeatist approach, often expressed in terms such as “lying” (doing the minimum) or “letting it rot” (accepting hopelessness). is expressed in. Future).
- This sense of disillusionment poses a significant threat to the CCP’s long-standing social contract with the Chinese people, which is based on the Party’s ability to provide economic prosperity in exchange for political consent. As growth slows and job prospects diminish, especially for recent graduates, protests over labor issues and housing have become more frequent.
- Furthermore, Xi’s economic policies, which prioritize state control over market forces, have raised concerns among foreign investors and local businesses alike. His focus on building up China’s manufacturing capacity and reducing dependence on foreign markets, while politically expedient, is putting further pressure on the country’s already struggling economy. Many economists believe that China’s current economic model is unsustainable and that a shift toward consumption-led growth is necessary to prevent long-term sustainability. However, Xi’s commitment to party control makes such a change impossible.
what will happen next
Like his Soviet predecessors, Xi appears reluctant to abandon the state-run economic model that once fueled China’s boom.
Xi has linked China’s economic and political survival to technological dominance and national security. This strategy has led to increasing tensions with the United States and its allies, raising fears of a new Cold War. Domestically, the CCP’s tight grip on the private sector, especially technology and real estate, has unnerved investors and deepened public frustration.
In recent weeks, China has tried to stimulate the economy and announced a number of measures. Stimulus measures, including a bold package aimed at boosting consumption and investment, provided some relief, with stock markets registering significant gains.
Yet most economists agree that these steps fail to address the deeper structural issues plaguing China’s economy, such as rising debt and the declining competitiveness of its labor force.
As China looks towards the centenary of Communist rule in 2049, the country’s future is anything but certain. Xi Jinping’s refusal to groom a successor or establish clear mechanisms for a leadership transition raises concerns about what will happen when he eventually steps down or passes away. The lack of a clear succession plan echoes the instability that plagued the Soviet Union during its final years, when internal power struggles hastened its collapse.
While Xi’s emphasis on party loyalty and ideological purity may help consolidate his control in the short term, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will enable China to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union in the long run. The next 25 years will be a crucial test of the CCP’s resilience, and the shadow of Soviet collapse will continue to loom over Xi’s leadership.
(with inputs from agencies)
