Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislative leaders strongly oppose it An anti-retail theft measure is on the November ballot. But they are being ignored by California voters, who overwhelmingly support the proposal.
Maybe the voters don’t know about the governor and Strong opposition from MPs. Or maybe they know and don’t care. They’re following their own instincts and thinking that California — again — is too easy for the bad guys.
The pendulum is clearly swinging from left to center on crime and incarceration. Three decades ago California was on the right with its war on drugs and tough three-strikes sentences for repeat offenders. Then we gradually moved to the left by dramatically reducing penalties. Opinions keep changing.
The support numbers are amazing Proposition 36, The bill, sponsored by the California District Attorneys Association, would increase penalties for theft and drug-related crimes and impose required treatment for repeat offenders.
The initiative is ahead by an astonishing 45 percentage points. According to a new survey of likely voters by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California: 71% to 26%, with only 3% undecided.
This is unprecedented for a controversial ballot measure.
While this is controversial among politicians, not among voters.
“I was surprised by the level of support,” says Mark Baldassare, a pollster at the Public Policy Institute of California.
But he also warns: “Proposals are not like candidate races. It’s possible to fall down the line in them. And the campaign for and against 36 hasn’t really started yet. It’s easier for people to say ‘no’ to a proposal than ‘yes’. Especially when someone comes out and points out a fatal flaw.”
Sure. But don’t bet on it. Opponents of Proposition 36 have a steep hill to climb to win.
It leads among every demographic group, including Democrats: 63% to 33%. Self-described liberals support it 56% to 41%.
Baldassare said his survey found that of the 10 state ballot measures, voters consider Proposition 36 by far the most important.
Another independent poll conducted last month by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies also found the measure has a strong edge: 56% vs. 23%, with 21% undecided.
IGS pollster Mark DiCamillo cited the “huge visibility” of retail theft – caught on camera or witnessed in person by voters – as a reason for Proposition 36’s overwhelming support.
“What voters are seeing is insulting to them.” DiCamillo told Times reporter Mackenzie Mace. “And they’re linking it to the approval of Proposition 47.”
The proposal moved California to the left on criminal sentencing 10 years ago. Pressure had mounted on federal courts to reduce overcrowding in prisons and jails. The measure passed outright, reducing some serious crimes to less punishable offenses — including shoplifting when the value of the stolen goods was less than $950.
It’s hard to make arrests in misdemeanor cases because the police must have witnesses to the crime or a warrant from a judge. Anyway, judges began releasing petty thieves. So, the police stopped acting on complaints of theft in stores. Merchants stopped reporting the crimes. And thefts increased.
PPIC researchers recently reported on a one-year study of Proposition 47’s effects.
“Under Proposition 47, the number of inmates in jails and prisons declined substantially, as did arrests for drug and property crimes, as some offenses were reclassified from serious crimes to minor offenses,” the report states.
But it said the pandemic also contributed to the lower apprehensions. The researchers argued that as people stayed home to prevent the spread of Covid, “encounters with police were fewer, resulting in fewer arrests.”
In any case, public pressure mounted on Sacramento Democrats to do something – and they did nothing for several years. Perhaps they thought the growing opposition to 47 would die down on its own. But it didn’t.
Newsom was one of Proposition 47’s most vocal original advocates and has remained a staunch supporter of it.
“We don’t need to go back to the broken policies of the last century,” he stressed. “Mass incarceration has been proven ineffective and is not the solution.”
Newsom’s initial response included trying to remove Proposition 36 from the ballot. It failed in an awkward way, leaving legislative leaders upset with the governor.
Proposition 36 would roll back portions of Proposition 47. Governor supports legislative package Their goal was to curb retail theft without making significant changes to Proposition No. 47. But they crafted a silly “poison pill” that would have automatically eliminated the Democrats’ own anti-crime legislation if Proposition No. 36 was approved by voters.
The aim was to force the sponsors of Proposition 36 to admit defeat and accept the Legislature’s offer. But Democrats rebelled against the governor’s bizarre plan and refused to put the lethal pill in their package.
The legislature ultimately passed 13 bills Newsom and Democratic lawmakers hope it will satisfy voters’ demands to do more to combat looting and shoplifting in California.
“The bills they passed make some good points, but overall they’re half measures,” says Gregory Totten, chief executive of the California District Attorneys Association. “Our law (36) says the consequences for theft should be made more severe.”
The initiative would impose harsher penalties for the sale of deadly fentanyl and treat it the same as other hard drugs like heroin and cocaine. Some people caught possessing hard drugs could be sentenced to treatment only.
Outside Sacramento, some prominent Democrats have listened to voters, read the surveys and are supporting Proposition 36. These include Mayors London Breed of San Francisco, Todd Gloria of San Diego and Matt Mahan of San Jose.
But Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg, a former state Senate leader who has spent his life fighting for treatment for the drug-addicted, homeless and mentally ill, opposes Proposition 36.
He says 36 makes a “false promise” of treatment. Steinberg predicts it will fall short because it focuses on law enforcement, not treating addicts.
But so far, Newsom and Sacramento Democrats haven’t been able to move anyone away from Proposition 36. Voters are moving in the opposite direction.
