Several recently released polls show the Senate race has tightened in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., She is fighting for her seat in a state that could go in favor of former President Donald Trump in the presidential race.
A Marist poll released Thursday showed Wisconsin likely voters giving 51% for Baldwin and 48% for Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde. Quinnipiac Survey Similarly, the Democratic candidate was leading Hovde by only a few points, 51% vs. 47%, and an AARP poll showed Baldwin at 50% and the Republican candidate at 47%, with 3% undecided.
In AARP’s survey Among voters over 50, Hovde edged Baldwin, 50% to 49%.
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Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde will face off in the November election. (Getty Images)
With the days ticking down to the general election, and now less than seven weeks away, Hovde has continued to grow his identity, and voters have begun to pay more and more attention to their chosen candidates. That’s after the latest polls show a close contest for Baldwin’s Senate seat, even though she is an incumbent candidate.
in the vote before May QuinnipiacHovde received 42% of the vote, while Baldwin received 54%, a double-digit margin between the two. In early August, he was at 44% to the incumbent Democrat’s 51%, according to one report. New York Times/Siena College Survey. The latest data continue that trend, as Hovde appears to be gaining ground among Wisconsin voters.
The Senate race is considered to “lean Democrat” by top political analysts. Cook Political ReportDespite the decreasing gap.
The closely watched survey, conducted by three separate organizations, also revealed that Baldwin is facing heightened scrutiny over his years-long relationship with Morgan Stanley private wealth adviser Maria Brisbane. He is not obligated under Senate rules to reveal any information about Brisbane’s clients or finances because the two are not married.
Groups supporting Hovde and Republicans have pointed to his running mate’s position as a potential conflict of interest and called for an investigation. Baldwin released his own ad, calling the allegations “completely false.”
Notably, Wisconsin is a toss-up state. Fox News Power Rankings The presidential election forecast gives neither Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris any significant edge in the contest. It also has significance in the Senate race, as split-ticket voting is becoming increasingly rare.
Hovde has Trump’s support. (John Hart/Wisconsin State Journal via AP, File)
“Wisconsin is often a pivotal state in the Electoral College count,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, whose new poll showed Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%. “2024 is no exception and it’s shaping up to be a tight contest.”
Baldwin has lost some ground in recent polls. (Drew Angerer)
During the 2016 election, every single Senate race went in the same direction their state voted for president. In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only instance of a Senate race going differently from the state’s presidential choice. Collins has established herself as a true moderate in the upper chamber, which many attribute to her victory.
Both Trump and Harris are vying to win Wisconsin. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
In Baldwin’s case, he voted with President Biden more than 99% of the time at the start of the 118th Congress, according to the report. five thirty eightCollins’s alienation from his Republican Party colleagues was far more prominent than Baldwin’s alienation from the Democrats, which was virtually nonexistent.
Hovde also has the support of Trump, who could give a boost to the Republican Senate candidate’s campaign if he succeeds in defeating Harris in Wisconsin.
The latest Quinnipiac survey was conducted Sept. 12-16 using random phone calls with live interviewers to 1,075 likely voters in Wisconsin. It had a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The AARP survey was taken Sept. 11-14, with live interviewers speaking to 1,052 likely voters. The margin of error was ±4.0% for the survey of Wisconsin voters and ±3.5% for the sample of voters over age 50. The Marist survey conducted a phone, text and online survey of 1,431 likely voters in the state Sept. 12-17. The margin of error was +/- 3.6%.
