President Joe Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical contest against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views about the economy are on the rise — reaching their highest level ever for a Joe Biden presidency, according to a new national poll from Fox News.
The presidential race has changed by 3 points since May. Last month, Trump was ahead by 1 point, while today Biden is ahead by 2 points: 50%-48%. That’s within the margin of error.
In addition to improved assessments of the economy, several other events may have influenced the small changes in vote preference since the May survey, including Trump’s accusations of hush money. Hunter Biden convicted in gun casePositive US jobs report, and Biden’s immigration executive order.
Biden’s current 50% support is his best this election cycle; he hasn’t been ahead of Trump since October 2023, and that was only by 1 point (49-48%).
The expanded ballot also saw a 4-point shift. When other potential candidates are included, Biden leads Trump by 1 point (43-42%), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 10% and Cornel West and Jill Stein at 2% each. Last month, Trump was ahead of Biden by 3 points (43-40%).
Trump performs well among men (+15), rural voters (+17), white men without a degree (+30) and white evangelical Christians (+46). Biden has strong support among voters age 65 and older (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23) and white women with a college degree (+28).
Fox News poll: Trump has 51% support in Arizona, up from 49% in March
Biden has the support of 73% of black voters. Before the November 2020 election, he had the support of 79%, while as of the November 2020 poll, he won blacks with 91% support. 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis,
New poll shows nearly all parties remain loyal, as 95% of Democrats are with Biden and 95% are against him Republicans support Trump,
The key takeaway is that independents prefer Biden by 9 points, a change from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. While a similar number of independents say leadership (59%) and integrity (58%) are extremely important to their vote decision, they are more likely to say Biden has integrity, while Trump is a strong leader, by only 11 points. More on those qualities later.
“The underlying demographic trends that define the race remain in place,” says Republican pollster Darron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant drops from 2020 in support among young voters and African Americans.”
trump retains more of his 2020 voters Trump leads Biden in head-to-head (by 1 point) and extended ballot (+3), and new voters favor him in both 2-way (by 4 points) and 5-way (+6). Voters who have not participated in the four most recent general elections are defined as new voters.
Three-quarters of voters say who wins the presidential election “matters a lot” to them, and they prefer Biden over Trump by 5 points. More women than men (by 7 points) think the outcome matters a lot, as do more voters aged 65+ than younger voters (+24) – this could be a big help for Biden if it happens.
While it’s too early to see results among likely voters, Trump holds a 3-point lead over Biden among the two-thirds of voters who say they feel “extremely” motivated to vote this year.
Among double-haters (those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump), Biden leads by 11 points in a 2-way race, and they favor Kennedy (35%) and Biden (27%) more than Trump (21%) in a 5-way race.
On an individual level, majorities have an unfavorable opinion of Trump (57% unfavorable), Kamala Harris (57%), Biden (56%), and Kennedy (51%). 46% have an unfavorable opinion of Jill Biden and 72% have an unfavorable opinion of Hunter Biden.
Among Democrats, 84% have a positive view of Biden, 82% of the First Lady, 77% of Harris, and 35% of Hunter, while 86% of Republicans have a favorable view of Trump.
Are people feeling better about the economy?
Although the survey showed an improvement in the economic ratings, the overall sentiment is still negative.
One-third of voters, 32%, say the economy is in excellent or good shape — the highest of Joe Biden’s presidency. The previous high was 30% last month (and September 2021).
Fifty-nine percent say they are moving forward or stable financially, up 5 points from last summer, and 44 percent feel optimistic about the economy, up 9 points from 2023.
Economic sentiment may be improving, but it’s far from booming: A 56% majority is pessimistic about the economy, 4 in 10 say they are falling behind financially, and two-thirds describe economic conditions as only fair or poor (68%).
More positive views about the economy, no matter how modest, helps. Biden’s job ratings: A record 37% approve of his handling of inflation and 41% approve of the economy – the highest in 2 years. About a third give him positive marks on immigration (35%, up from 30% last month) and the Israel-Hamas war (32% approval).
Overall, 45% of voters like the job Biden is doing as president and 55% disapprove. While this is unchanged from last month, these are his best marks since January 2023.
Today, 34 percent of people are satisfied with what is going on in the country. That’s up 2 points from a year ago and the highest in the past three years, but it’s still 11 points lower than when Biden took office in 2021.
Is this election about candidates or issues?
By a 59-29% margin, voters say this election is more about who can handle the issues better than the character of the candidates. Republicans are nearly 20 points more likely than Democrats and independents to say it’s about the issues. About 4 in 10 Democrats and independents think it’s about character, while only 2 in 10 Republicans think so.
A majority say leadership (66%) and integrity (61%) will be extremely important to their vote, while less than half say so about age and mental soundness (45%).
More voters believe Trump is mentally healthy (by 7 points) and that he is a strong leader (+10), while Biden leads in honesty (by 10 points) and empathy (+6).
The two most important issues to voters are the future of American democracy and the economy. Stability and normalcy are next, followed by immigration and healthcare. About half say abortion and guns will be extremely important to their vote, while about a third feel the same about standing up against elite interests, climate change, and the Israel-Hamas war.
Voters trust Trump more on two of the top five issues: immigration (by 9 points) and the economy (+5). However, these are smaller than the advantages he enjoyed in May (+15 immigration and +13 economy). He also prioritizes tackling the Israel-Hamas war (+4). Biden is more trusted to do a better job on healthcare (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6), while his biggest advantages are on the somewhat lesser priorities of abortion (+13) and climate change (+20). Neither candidate has a clear edge on stability and normality (Biden +3), standing up to elite interests (Biden +2), or guns (Trump +2).
“This poll hasn’t changed much since May, but it’s enough to make it a welcome poll for Biden,” says Anderson. “Improvements in vote preference are one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw a significant reduction in Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden maintained his advantage on abortion and health care. If voters don’t view Trump as significantly better on the economy and immigration, the justification for putting him back into office will become very unclear for some voters.”
What is happening with RFK Jr?
Kennedy’s personal favorability rating has risen from positive territory by 3 points to negative territory by 11 points. A majority of 51% have an unfavorable view of him.
Meanwhile, his support in the 5-way presidential race has dropped by 1 point every month, from 15% in November 2023 to 10% today. That’s a remarkable trend, even if the difference is within the margin of error.
His supporters are evenly split between Biden and Trump in the two-way race, at 47% each.
The number of those supporting Biden (9%) and Trump (10%) in the expanded ballot is roughly equal, with the majority shifting toward Kennedy. West and Stein siphoned more support from Biden (5%) than Trump (2%).
Pol-Puri
Three in 10 voters say debate performances will be extremely important to their vote for president, and by a 5-point margin more believe Trump will win next week’s debate. Slightly more Democrats (9%) believe Trump will win, while Republicans (6%) say the same about Biden.
The survey asked voters what comes to mind when they hear about threats to the future of American democracy and, by a wide margin, more people think of these threats as the end of certain “rights and liberties” than the end of “free and fair elections” (53-30%), and that’s true for Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
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By a 23-point margin, more people believe Hunter Biden’s gun trial (79%) was fair than Trump’s hush-money trial (56%). Four percent say Hunter’s conviction led them to change their support to Trump or a third-party candidate in the presidential race, while 5% say Trump’s conviction caused them to change their support to Biden or someone else.
click here Top Line And Crosstabs
This Fox News survey, conducted June 14-17, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from the national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (130) and cellphones (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. The sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can affect results. Weights are typically applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondents’ demographics represent the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
