about two weeks later President Biden announced a sweeping executive order aimed at reducing the arrival of migrants at the southern border, the latest Fox News national poll found that a majority of voters approve of limiting the number of refugees entering the U.S. — and the idea seems even more favored when Biden’s name isn’t attached to the plan.
Additionally, Biden’s approval rating on immigration has risen 5 points since March and is now the highest in a year, while former President Trump’s ability to handle the issue has declined, leading to a tight race between the two veteran candidates.
(Biden’s) refugee ban
The survey, released Thursday, includes a split-sample test of support for a policy limiting the number of immigrants allowed to enter the country through asylum claims. Half of voters were asked what they thought of Biden’s executive order implementing the policy, and about 6 in 10 (57%) approved of the action, while about 4 in 10 (38%) disapproved.
The other half were asked about the proposal without Biden’s name or executive order. In this scenario, approval rises to 66% and only 3 in 10 (29%) disapprove. So, while voters approve of Biden’s plan by about 20 points, support rises by 37 points when he is not attached to it.
Depending on how the question is asked, there are differences by party, gender, age, and race. Men, white voters, voters aged 45 and older, and Republicans are all more likely to favor limiting the number of refugees when Biden’s name is not mentioned, while suburban women, Non-white voters and Democrats All are more likely to support the plan when the president is added. Voters under age 45 feel roughly the same whether the president is mentioned or not.
The popularity of Biden’s executive action has likely boosted his immigration approval rating: 35% approval vs. 30% in March. Still, 63% disapprove of his handling of the issue, leading to an overall negative rating of 28 points.
45% agreed with Biden’s overall job performance, while 55% disagreed.
Fox News Poll: Majority favors Israelis over Palestinians
The survey uses a uniform split-sample approach for testing Trump’s name impact On a proposal to exempt workers’ tips from federal income taxes. Trump said he would do so if elected during a campaign speech in Las Vegas on June 10. When Trump is attached to the plan, voters support it by 30 points (62% approve vs. 32% disapprove), but when his name is removed, that jumps to 39 points (68% vs. 29%).
The partisan divide here is stark — Democrats reject the proposal by 10 points when Trump is named, while they approve of it by 40 points when he is not. Republicans approve of the plan by 71 points when Trump is named, and by 46 points when he is not.
“The effect of partisan polarization on support for policies is clear,” says Republican pollster Darron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Most voters support limiting the number of refugees at the southern border and most people would like to exempt tips from income taxes, but a large portion of partisans can’t bring themselves to say they’re in favor of something if the candidate from the other party is behind it. Maybe Congress needs to make sponsorship of bills anonymous so we can get something done.”
Immigration and the 2024 race
Presidential race The contest remains close, even though Biden beat Trump in a hypothetical two-way contest for the first time since October (50% vs. 48%). Biden also has a 1-point lead in the extended ballot (43% Biden, 42% Trump, 10% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Cornel West and Jill Stein).
Voters say this election will be centered more on issues (59%) than character (29%), so the fact that more than half of voters say immigration (52%) will be extremely important to their vote means something.
Still, while immigration ranks high on voters’ list of priorities, it’s not at the top. The most important issues are the future of American democracy (68%) and the economy (66%), followed by stability and normality (58%), immigration and healthcare (52% each). Next up are abortion (47% extremely important) and guns (45%), while the lowest tier falls below 40%: standing up to elite interests (37%), climate change (33%), and the Israel-Hamas war (32%).
Three-quarters of Republicans consider immigration extremely important; the only issue that ranks higher for them is the economy. For Democrats and independents, immigration doesn’t even make it into their top five issues.
Trump is preferred on two of the top five issues, including immigration, where he is better than Trump by 9 points. Still, this is down from +15 points in May. He is also trusted on the economy, but his lead has also narrowed since May (from +13 to +5). Trump is preferred by 4 points on the Israel-Hamas war.
Biden leads on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6) and holds substantial leads on less important issues like climate change (+20) and abortion (+13). Neither has a clear edge on stability/normalcy (Biden +3), elite interests (Biden +2) and guns (Trump +2).
“The fact that a majority approved Biden’s executive order restricting refugees is significant,” says Anderson. “If Biden can keep quiet Trump’s Advantages on Immigration And on the economy, Trump loses the strength of his two key issues, which resonate beyond his base.”
Despite some tilt toward Biden, the immigration issue remains crucial to Trump’s prospects. And while immigration falls in the middle when it comes to the importance of issues, those who consider it extremely important to them support Trump by 37 points.
But here, too, there is some troubling news for the former president: 1 in 10 voters who feel Trump would handle immigration better support Biden in vote preference. Trump may be helped by the enthusiasm of Republican voters in general and “immigration voters” in particular.
Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump contest since May
Overall, two-thirds of voters are highly motivated to vote this year, but more Republicans (74%) than Democrats (64%) feel this way. Among highly motivated voters, 6 in 10 say immigration will be extremely important to their vote and think Trump could handle it better.
Split Sample Question Glossary and Methodology Statement
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Here are the wordings of the split sample questions asked in a Fox News national survey in June. Half of the respondents were asked Sample A and half were asked Sample B:
(Division A) Do you approve or disapprove of President Biden’s immigration executive order limiting the number of refugees allowed into the U.S. across the southern border?
| approve | rejected | (Don’t know) | |
| 14-17 June 24 | 57% | 38 | 4 |
(Division B) Do you favor or not limit the number of refugees entering the United States through the southern border?
| approve | rejected | (Don’t know) | |
| 14-17 June 24 | 66% | 29 | 5 |
(Division A) Do you agree or disagree with former President Trump’s proposal to eliminate the federal tax on tips paid to workers?
| approve | rejected | (Don’t know) | |
| 14-17 June 24 | 62% | 32 | 6 |
(Division B) Do you favor eliminating federal taxes on tips paid to workers or not?
| approve | rejected | (Don’t know) | |
| 14-17 June 24 | 68% | 29 | 3 |
This Fox News survey, conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), involved interviews with a sample of 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from the national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (130) and cellphones (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Results based on split samples have a margin of sampling error of ± 4 percentage points. The sampling error associated with subgroup results is greater. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can affect results.
