Former President Trump Trump maintained his slight lead in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, which showed Trump with 251 electoral college votes while President Biden had 241.
According to the prediction, the contest is between four states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Four other states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina, are also highly competitive.
But there is one state that could prove crucial to Trump’s victory.
Polling shows the contest is close and tight
Trump ahead of Biden The latest Fox News poll has it ahead by just one point; the margin of error in that result is high.
Most high-quality polls since the last forecast are showing the same result: a one- or two-point lead for either Biden or Trump, within each survey’s margin of error.
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However, it is too early to say whether Trump’s conviction in a criminal case for falsifying business records will have any impact on the race. vote A survey done by Marist a week before the decision suggests that won’t be the case.
Trump is leading by mid-to-high single-digit margins in battleground states, and especially in the closest Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada).
The contest is particularly close in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), where Trump’s lead is typically within one or two points.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still the wild card in this race. He received the support of 17% of registered voters. The Marquette Survey two weeks ago.
Most polls show him receiving roughly equal support from both parties, though Republican voters tend to view him more favorably.
Why might Trump win?
Trump’s continued lead is good news for the former president’s campaign.
He is making significant inroads among traditionally Democratic groups, especially young, Hispanic and Black voters.
as new Fox News Power Rankings Issues Tracker According to polls released today, voters believe Trump is the right person to handle the economy and the border, two of the three major issues in this election. Voters also say Trump is more mentally and physically fit to handle the job.
Biden has a slight edge on abortion policy, and voters say he is more honest than Trump.
Biden’s policy troubles are unlikely to go away before November: Prices are too high under his administration, large numbers of illegal immigrants will enter the country, and the population will continue to age.
and late The Democrats’ Argument Voters are just waking up to this election, the first runoff election in 70 years. Voters are well aware of these candidates and their ideas.
Why might Biden win?
On election night, the only math that matters is the race to 270 electoral college votes.
In an election with no surprises in other states, Biden could retain the presidency by retaining Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There are also reasons to think that support for Biden among young and minority voters could strengthen as November approaches.
According to a Fox News poll Recent analysis revealed“In April 2020, Biden was at 66% among blacks and 52% among Hispanics. According to a November 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis, he ultimately won both groups with much wider percentages of 91% and 63%, respectively.”
Close elections also depend on voter turnout.
Biden has strong support from college-educated voters, a very reliable voter group, and he also leads on the issue of abortion.
This issue is not only rated as a top deal-breaker issue Latest Fox Pollbut it is highly likely to get a separate spot on the ballot in Arizona, which is seen as a toss-up state in this forecast.
Nebraska’s 2nd District could be key to Trump’s victory
If Biden holds the Rust Belt states and there are no other surprises, he could win another four years.
What will the surprise be like?
The most likely candidate is Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district.
If Biden retains Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as every other state he won in the 2020 election, the incumbent president will take home 270 electoral college votes. This is the minimum number of votes needed to win an election.
One of these 270 votes is Nebraska’s 2nd District.
(Maine and Nebraska are the only states that award Electoral College votes to the winner of the statewide vote and to the winner of a similar vote separated by congressional district.)
If Trump wins that district, It’s an even race Each will get 269 electoral votes.
Ties are resolved in the U.S. House, where each state gets one vote. If Republicans control a majority of seats in a state, a Republican member will cast the vote for that state.
Assuming the Electoral College vote matches the results, and Republicans do not suffer heavy losses in the House in the next election, and electors in every Republican-led state support Trump, he will be the likely winner of the Electoral College contest.
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Nebraska’s 2nd district has voted for two Democratic and two Republican presidents in the last four elections:
- In 2020, Biden won with 51.95% while Trump won with 45.45%.
- In 2016, Trump won with 47.16% of the vote while Clinton got 44.92%.
- In 2012, Romney won with 52.85% of the vote while Obama got 45.70%.
- In 2008, Obama won with 49.97% of the vote while McCain got 48.75%.
Omaha and its suburbs make up a significant portion of the district’s population, and that city has a very high proportion of people with a college education, making the district one of the most favorable areas for Biden in a heavily Republican state.
Both parties are eyeing this part of the state, and are predicted to invest heavily in it as November approaches.
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Nebraska is moving from Probable D to Lean D in this forecast.
