FRANCE — Experts say when France goes to the polls this Sunday, the results will likely reflect an unprecedented rightward swing that could lead to the country’s most conservative parliament since its independence after World War II.
The reasons for this are – unhappiness with immigration, the weak economy, the crisis in the cost of living and dissatisfaction with the current centrist government, especially among young voters.
“Right now, the biggest shift to the right is happening in France,” Mathieu Tyrmand, an advisor to conservative political candidates and parties across Europe, told Fox News Digital. “This is the work of democracy—people are very angry and won’t take it anymore.”
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Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally group in the National Assembly, joined Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), at the final rally before the recent European Parliament election on June 9. (Photo: Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images) (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Tyrmond continued, “ people of france They are fed up that their Paris leadership is living like the EU’s plutocrats while their cities burn, youth unemployment remains high, crime is rising, racist attacks and violence against native French people persist.”
These are the same factors that led the right-wing National Rally to win 31.4% of the vote, the largest share of any French party in EU elections earlier this month. That National Rally, founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972, has reinvented itself in the past few years under the leadership of Le Pen’s daughter Marine, and now with the help of Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old president.
Many French voters are concerned about the arrival of more than 320,000 undocumented immigrants last year. “It has more to do with instability and violence than immigrants taking jobs away from French people,” says Leo Barinko, a Paris-based senior economist at Oxford Economics. “You have crimes that have been in the headlines related to immigrants; that’s why immigration is being rejected. Some of these incidents include terrorist attacks, murders and assaults. Another factor tilting voters against more immigration is the cost it imposes on taxpayers for social benefits,” he told Fox News Digital.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech in Paris on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. President Emmanuel Macron is addressing French voters on Wednesday for the first time since he called for a national election following his party’s crushing defeat in the European elections. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)
The threat of violence may be one of the factors motivating young voters to demand the deportation of some immigrants. There is so much passion around the topic that some musicians created a song distributed on social media sites that has become popular among Gen-Z, that is, people aged 11-26. The lyrics include “I won’t go, yes, you will. And sooner than you think.”
economy Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party The U.S. hasn’t fared well either. A drop in the cost of living after the invasion of Ukraine pushed inflation to 6.3% in February last year and then fell to 2.1% recently. Youth unemployment remains at double-digit levels. Also, housing construction has slowed over the past decade, making it more expensive for young people to rent. “If you have a drop in the cost of living, whoever is in charge is going to have to bear the cost,” says Konstantinos Venetis, director of global macro at TS Lombard in London. “Essentially, when you get complaints from voters, whoever is waiting to come into power benefits.”
Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National (RN) and leader of the electoral list, poses for a selfie with supporters during a campaign rally for the European elections in Montbéliard, eastern France, March 22, 2024. (Photo: Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images) (Photo: Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images)
However, Venetis says France’s economy is certainly no worse than other major EU countries such as Germany and Italy, and is probably even better. “This is supposed to be the year the economy bottoms out,” he says, meaning economic growth is likely to improve. He says this is likely to be fueled by more government spending, perhaps even at the EU level.
Nevertheless, many young voters and those living in rural areas voted heavily for the National Rally in the European Union election earlier this month, and there seems no reason to expect a different result this time. “There were very few places where the far right wasn’t in the first place,” Barinkou said. Places that didn’t lean right included Paris, which fits with the long-standing narrative that people working in professional jobs in big urban cities tend to take progressive political stances, he says.
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French riot police use tear gas to disperse protesters during a pro-Palestinian rally at Republic Square in Paris, France, on October 12, 2023. (Photo by Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The potentially passionate youth vote for the National Rally may be partly driven by the youthful Bardella, who not only communicates His views on TikTok But he’s also barely older than many in the Gen-Z group. “I’m not surprised he’s popular with young voters,” says Marc Chandler.C“I remember young people being excited about former President Barack Obama being one of the youngest U.S. presidents,” the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York told Fox News Digital.
Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at banking company Brown Brothers Harriman, tells Fox News Digital that if a National Rally-led parliament comes to power, France is unlikely to exit the EU or the single-currency eurozone. “If the right-wing comes to power, the dynamics between France and the EU will be a little more complicated, but there will be no threat to the monetary union,” he says.
Firefighters extinguish burning vehicles during clashes between protesters and police following the death of Nahel Merzouk, in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, France. ( Reuters/Stephanie Lecocq)
Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen is plotting a victory, suggesting that Bardella, as prime minister, should be involved in military defense decisions. While nominally the French president is the head of the armed forces, The constitution states, “The Prime Minister is responsible for national security.”
The French parliamentary system requires up to two rounds of voting. If no single party gets an absolute majority in the first ballot, the top two parties will compete in a second ballot. If necessary, a second ballot will be held on July 7. Polls as of Friday showed the National Rally could get 37% of the vote.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
