According to the latest update from IMD, the system is located about 50 km south-southeast of Agra and 50 km north-northeast of Gwalior. It is expected to continue moving north-northeastwards and gradually weaken on Friday. However, its impact will be felt over a wide area before it dissipates.
Here is the forecast that the IMD has made for the states mentioned below:
Uttarakhand: Light to moderate rains are expected in the state from September 12 to 14, while heavy to very heavy rains may occur in some areas. This may lead to floods, landslides and waterlogging in vulnerable areas.
Uttar Pradesh: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in both eastern and western regions during this period. IMD has warned of moderate to heavy rainfall. Flood riskRainfall intensity may reach from 115.6 mm to 204.4 mm (very heavy) and may exceed 204.5 mm (extremely heavy), especially over western Uttar Pradesh.
Delhi: Apart from this, heavy rains are also likely in some areas of Delhi on September 12 and in western Uttar Pradesh on September 12 and 13.
Haryana: Light to moderate rainfall is expected, with heavy rainfall likely between September 12 and 15. Urban areas may face disruption due to waterlogging and possible flooding.
Rajasthan: Western Rajasthan is likely to receive heavy rainfall on September 12, while Eastern Rajasthan will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on September 12 and 13.
Madhya Pradesh: Heavy rain is expected on September 12, while moderate to heavy rains will continue over the next few days. This may lead to surface runoff and flooding in low-lying areas.
This depression follows a period of adequate rainfall over central India. From September 5 to 11, 2024, extremely heavy rainfall was recorded over Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh, while Gujarat and East Rajasthan received very heavy rainfall. The total rainfall over India during this period is 50.9 mm, which is 14% above the Long Period Average (LPA). The seasonal rainfall departure from June 1 to September 11, 2024 is +8% above the LPA.
Why was it not classified as a cyclone?
The current system is not classified as a cyclone as it does not meet the intensity criteria set for cyclones. Although it has produced significant rainfall and has the potential for severe weather, it lacks sustained high wind speeds and organized Cyclonic circulation Specificity of tropical cyclones.
Cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh: Depression over North India
According to the IMD, the depression that was earlier over northwest Madhya Pradesh has moved north-northeastwards at a speed of 10 km/h in the past six hours. As of 8:30 am on September 12, it was located over southwest Uttar Pradesh, near 27.0 degrees north latitude and 78.5 degrees east longitude, about 50 km east-southeast of Agra. It continued its movement towards the north-northeast, gaining speed of 13 km/h, and by 11:30 am, it was centered near 27.3 degrees north latitude and 78.7 degrees east longitude, about 70 km east-northeast of Agra, 90 km southeast of Aligarh, 130 km north-northeast of Gwalior and 140 km south-southwest of Bareilly. The system is expected to maintain its strength till September 12 before gradually weakening on September 13. Continuous monitoring is being done by Doppler weather radars located in Delhi and Lucknow.
An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over the lower and middle levels of the troposphere over southeastern Bangladesh and its neighbouring areas. A low pressure area is expected to develop over coastal Bangladesh and northern Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system is forecast to move slowly west-northwestwards, potentially intensifying into a depression over coastal West Bengal and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal within 48 hours.
Week 1: September 12 to 18
Isolated extremely heavy rains are forecast over Uttarakhand on September 12 and 13, while similar conditions are expected over West Uttar Pradesh on the 12th, while heavy rains will continue on the 13th. Other regions including Haryana, Chandigarh-Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan are likely to receive heavy rains at isolated places on the 12th. East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to receive heavy rains on the 16th and 17th, while Gangetic West Bengal is likely to receive rains on the 13th and 14th. Rains are also forecast over Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya between September 14 and 15. Apart from this, heavy rains are expected over Odisha on the 13th and 14th, while Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura may receive rains on the 12th and 13th.
Local flooding is expected in urban areas of these regions, especially in low-lying areas, which may lead to road closures and traffic disruptions. Heavy rainfall may also reduce visibility at times, which may affect travel. Minor damage to unpaved roads and weak structures is expected, especially in areas with heavy rainfall, while landslides and mudslides are possible in hilly areas. Flooding is also a risk in some river catchments; for more details, visit the Central Water Commission (CWC) website.
Week 2: September 19 to 25
Rainfall and flood risk over South India: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over coastal and south interior Karnataka, as well as Ghat areas of Tamil Nadu during this period.
Local flash floods and waterlogging are expected in urban areas, which may lead to road closures and increased travel time due to traffic delays. Possible landslides or mudslides in hilly areas, along with minor damage to kutcha roads and weak structures. Heavy rains may also affect standing crops and horticulture due to waterlogging in some areas. As in Week 1, some river catchment areas may be prone to flooding, and detailed information can be obtained from the CWC website.
