“We support Ukraine in its resistance to Russia’s aggressive war. Obviously, we will continue to do so,” a German government spokesman said after state elections in Saxony and Thuringia.
But is it really so “obvious” after the electoral success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)? Both parties want to stop military support to Ukraine and improve relations with Russia.
Although foreign policy decisions are not taken at state level, it was an important topic in the election campaign. Sahra Wagenknecht made the election a vote on war and peace, and Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, said: “These elections in the east will also decide whether this country abandons the path of war or moves further towards truce.”
‘Many people in the East fear the war will escalate’
The figures highlight the problem that the German government, which according to Chancellor Olaf Scholz intends to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary”, is grappling with this sentiment, particularly in eastern Germany.
According to this year’s Allensbach Security Report, 76% of respondents in the east fear that Germany could be dragged into a military conflict, while in the west the figure is 44%. In a July survey by pollster Infratest Dimap, 36% of respondents nationwide said arms supplies to Ukraine had gone “too far.” In the east, the figure was 50%.
“Many people in the east fear further arms supplies will escalate the war,” says Katja Hoyer, a historian from the eastern German state of Brandenburg who now lives in Britain. “In recent weeks, I have repeatedly heard the argument that Russia cannot be defeated by any means, and that further support for Ukraine will unnecessarily provoke it and delay the war.”
In an email to DW, he said he believed this view may also stem from East Germany’s experience under Soviet control. “The Soviet Union was one of two world powers; the reverence that was felt for the Soviet Union in the East has transferred to today’s Russia – and not so much to the West.” Furthermore, according to Hoyer, people’s view of the Soviet Union in the former East Germany was not entirely negative.
Saxony state Premier Michael Kretschmer reiterated this sentiment during the election campaign and has long called for a “stop” to the war in Ukraine. This has caused some consternation in his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, where many see Kretschmer’s demands as a betrayal of Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the CDU has found itself pushed into the hands of “two branches of the Kremlin,” CDU foreign policy expert Roderick Kiesewetter wrote in an email to DW, referring to the AfD and BSW.
Kiesewetter said, “Putting a ‘pause’ on the war would lead to massive war crimes in the occupied territories and to the deployment of troops by Western countries to protect the front lines; it would create a blueprint for other aggressor countries and result in millions more refugees and displaced persons fleeing to Germany and Western Europe.” He attributed this mood in the East to widespread “romanticization of Russia, distortion of history, and anti-American sentiment.”
And yet, Kretschmer managed to strike a chord with voters in Saxony. Possibly due to his criticism of the support for Ukraine, the CDU narrowly outpolled the right-wing AfD, which has no qualms about supporting Russia.
Coalition talks are stress test for CDU
In the upcoming coalition talks in Saxony and Thuringia, the question “What is your position on support for Ukraine?” will have very concrete consequences. In both states, there is a good chance that the CDU will lead the next government, but it will need coalition partners. The CDU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, but not with the BSW.
Before the elections, Wagenknecht made it clear that his party’s participation in the coalition would depend on the Ukraine issue. He said, “We will only be part of a state government that takes a clear stand for diplomacy and against preparations for war at the federal level.”
However, since the elections Wagenknecht has taken a softer stance. He has said that the state government that includes BSW should publicly state that it wants to see more “Diplomatic initiatives“The federal government has been urged to end the war in Ukraine and said it does not support the supply of arms to Kiev “on this scale.”
‘BSW is the long arm of the Kremlin’
Will the BSW be able to get its way? “This is not a big challenge in Saxony,” says historian Katja Hoyer. “Kretschmer spoke out clearly against the supply of arms from the very beginning.”
However, Hoyer believes the situation is different in Thuringia. There, the AfD emerged as the strongest party, 10 points ahead of the CDU. “BSW can and will put pressure on the CDU, which did not win the election,” Hoyer predicted. “About half of the voters there voted for either the AfD or BSW, which means for the Russia-friendly party. Even if Wagenknecht rejects it, a coalition of BSW and AfD would have a majority in the state parliament. This gives BSW considerable leverage to demand concessions from the CDU.”
On the other hand, Kiesewetter strongly advises against making concessions to the BSW. “The BSW is the long arm of the Kremlin and goes against all the values for which the Union (the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU) has traditionally stood: freedom and self-determination, peace through international law, democracy and a commitment to the West.” He added that cooperating with the BSW “would be tantamount to self-destruction.”
One way out might be for both sides to acknowledge that the states are not responsible for the situation in Ukraine, while vaguely committing themselves to peace efforts. However, at the federal level, the issue is by no means settled.
Public support for Ukraine is declining, especially in eastern Germany. The longer the war continues, the more difficult it will be for the German government to continue its policy of support. And the issue is likely to come up again in 2025, when federal elections are due on September 28.
But is it really so “obvious” after the electoral success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)? Both parties want to stop military support to Ukraine and improve relations with Russia.
Although foreign policy decisions are not taken at state level, it was an important topic in the election campaign. Sahra Wagenknecht made the election a vote on war and peace, and Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, said: “These elections in the east will also decide whether this country abandons the path of war or moves further towards truce.”
‘Many people in the East fear the war will escalate’
The figures highlight the problem that the German government, which according to Chancellor Olaf Scholz intends to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary”, is grappling with this sentiment, particularly in eastern Germany.
According to this year’s Allensbach Security Report, 76% of respondents in the east fear that Germany could be dragged into a military conflict, while in the west the figure is 44%. In a July survey by pollster Infratest Dimap, 36% of respondents nationwide said arms supplies to Ukraine had gone “too far.” In the east, the figure was 50%.
“Many people in the east fear further arms supplies will escalate the war,” says Katja Hoyer, a historian from the eastern German state of Brandenburg who now lives in Britain. “In recent weeks, I have repeatedly heard the argument that Russia cannot be defeated by any means, and that further support for Ukraine will unnecessarily provoke it and delay the war.”
In an email to DW, he said he believed this view may also stem from East Germany’s experience under Soviet control. “The Soviet Union was one of two world powers; the reverence that was felt for the Soviet Union in the East has transferred to today’s Russia – and not so much to the West.” Furthermore, according to Hoyer, people’s view of the Soviet Union in the former East Germany was not entirely negative.
Saxony state Premier Michael Kretschmer reiterated this sentiment during the election campaign and has long called for a “stop” to the war in Ukraine. This has caused some consternation in his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, where many see Kretschmer’s demands as a betrayal of Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the CDU has found itself pushed into the hands of “two branches of the Kremlin,” CDU foreign policy expert Roderick Kiesewetter wrote in an email to DW, referring to the AfD and BSW.
Kiesewetter said, “Putting a ‘pause’ on the war would lead to massive war crimes in the occupied territories and to the deployment of troops by Western countries to protect the front lines; it would create a blueprint for other aggressor countries and result in millions more refugees and displaced persons fleeing to Germany and Western Europe.” He attributed this mood in the East to widespread “romanticization of Russia, distortion of history, and anti-American sentiment.”
And yet, Kretschmer managed to strike a chord with voters in Saxony. Possibly due to his criticism of the support for Ukraine, the CDU narrowly outpolled the right-wing AfD, which has no qualms about supporting Russia.
Coalition talks are stress test for CDU
In the upcoming coalition talks in Saxony and Thuringia, the question “What is your position on support for Ukraine?” will have very concrete consequences. In both states, there is a good chance that the CDU will lead the next government, but it will need coalition partners. The CDU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, but not with the BSW.
Before the elections, Wagenknecht made it clear that his party’s participation in the coalition would depend on the Ukraine issue. He said, “We will only be part of a state government that takes a clear stand for diplomacy and against preparations for war at the federal level.”
However, since the elections Wagenknecht has taken a softer stance. He has said that the state government that includes BSW should publicly state that it wants to see more “Diplomatic initiatives“The federal government has been urged to end the war in Ukraine and said it does not support the supply of arms to Kiev “on this scale.”
‘BSW is the long arm of the Kremlin’
Will the BSW be able to get its way? “This is not a big challenge in Saxony,” says historian Katja Hoyer. “Kretschmer spoke out clearly against the supply of arms from the very beginning.”
However, Hoyer believes the situation is different in Thuringia. There, the AfD emerged as the strongest party, 10 points ahead of the CDU. “BSW can and will put pressure on the CDU, which did not win the election,” Hoyer predicted. “About half of the voters there voted for either the AfD or BSW, which means for the Russia-friendly party. Even if Wagenknecht rejects it, a coalition of BSW and AfD would have a majority in the state parliament. This gives BSW considerable leverage to demand concessions from the CDU.”
On the other hand, Kiesewetter strongly advises against making concessions to the BSW. “The BSW is the long arm of the Kremlin and goes against all the values for which the Union (the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU) has traditionally stood: freedom and self-determination, peace through international law, democracy and a commitment to the West.” He added that cooperating with the BSW “would be tantamount to self-destruction.”
One way out might be for both sides to acknowledge that the states are not responsible for the situation in Ukraine, while vaguely committing themselves to peace efforts. However, at the federal level, the issue is by no means settled.
Public support for Ukraine is declining, especially in eastern Germany. The longer the war continues, the more difficult it will be for the German government to continue its policy of support. And the issue is likely to come up again in 2025, when federal elections are due on September 28.
