hurricane milton is likely to have a serious impact on Tampa Bay The area tightens back up as it moves toward Florida’s Gulf Coast category 5 hurricaneForecasts predict landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday, with storm surge between 10 and 15 feet and winds up to 165 mph.
It would be the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa in more than a century, threatening an area already vulnerable due to geography. urban developmentand long lasting effects hurricane helen Just two weeks ago.
The Tampa Bay area’s susceptibility to storms, particularly the surges that accompany them, has long been recognized. The region’s population boom, its coastal geography, and the lack of direct strikes since 1921 have created a dangerous situation where a major storm could cause unprecedented damage.
geography and storm surge Threat
The geographic layout of Tampa Bay makes the area highly vulnerable to devastating hurricanes. The shape of the bay, with a narrow mouth opening toward the Gulf of Mexico, acts like a funnel, concentrating storm-driven water inland.
“The way Tampa Bay is set up, it’s almost certain that there’s going to be a surge in the bay,” said Neil Dorst, a meteorologist. NOAAThe Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory told the Wall Street Journal.
A shallow continental shelf extends off the coast, further exacerbating this surge. Shallow water allows storms to “pile up” water rather than disperse it, leading to higher and more destructive storm surges. According to a report by the NY Post, MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel compared storm waves to tsunamis, saying, “Storm waves are physically similar to tsunamis, but they form on the surface of the ocean instead of on the moving ocean floor.” Are formed due to wind.”
Due to these factors, even moderately strong storms can cause catastrophic flooding in Tampa. An expected rise of up to 15 feet in Milton could flood vast swaths of the area, where 50% of the population lives at elevations below 10 feet. Such an increase would be nearly double what the area experienced during Hurricane Helene.
Population growth and infrastructure weaknesses
In the century since the last direct hit by a major hurricane in 1921, Tampa Bay has grown into a densely populated metropolitan area with more than 3 million residents. Most of this surge has occurred in low-lying areas, increasing the potential for damage and loss of life from storm surges. A 2015 study by risk modelers Karen Clark & Company labeled Tampa as the most vulnerable city in the US to storm surge flooding, estimating that about a third of its residents live in storm surge-prone areas.
Billions of dollars in private and public investment have been spent to develop Tampa’s waterfront, much of which is located in flood-prone areas. “It’s a recipe for a huge storm-surge disaster,” Jeff Masters, a former NOAA hurricane scientist, told the WSJ.
Furthermore, much of the area’s infrastructure is not built to withstand a storm of Milton’s intensity. Although new construction adheres to Florida’s stringent building codes, which must withstand hurricane-force winds, many older structures, especially those built before these rules went into effect, are far more unsafe. These areas have not faced a direct hurricane hit in more than 100 years and may not be prepared for the potential destruction from winds and flooding.
Impact of back-to-back hurricanes: Helen and Milton
The Tampa Bay area is still recovering from damage caused by Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. Although Helene made landfall north of Tampa, the storm produced a storm surge of over six feet, causing significant damage in the area.
Houses in low-lying areas were flooded, with floodwaters reaching halfway up the front doors. Piles of debris, including waterlogged furniture, appliances, and ruined drywall, still lined the streets.
Hurricane Milton, following closely behind Helene, poses a more significant threat. With the predicted surge potentially reaching twice that of Helene, many worry that Milton’s winds will turn remaining debris into dangerous projectiles, further complicating an already dangerous situation.
Isaac Longley, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, said that Helene had removed dunes and barrier protection along the coast, leaving the area exposed to Milton’s destructive force. The combined effects of back-to-back storms could devastate both the region’s infrastructure and its recovery efforts.
unusual path and intense intensity
The trajectory of Hurricane Milton is also contributing to concerns. Most Atlantic hurricanes travel from east to west, but Milton is taking an unusual path, moving east-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico. This rarefied path gives the storm more time to gather energy from the warm Gulf waters, which is currently fueling its rapid intensification.
“Milton is turning upside down and is projected to cross the entire length of the Gulf, giving it plenty of time to refuel in warm waters,” Masters said.
The size of the storm is also worrying. As Milton approaches the coast, its wind field is expected to double in size, significantly increasing the risk of storm surge and high winds. This increases the potential impact area, spreading destruction to hundreds of miles of coastline north and south of Tampa Bay.
black swan scenario
Experts have long warned of the possibility of a “black swan” storm for Tampa. A 2010 study of a hypothetical Category 5 hurricane by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council estimated 2,000 deaths and $250 billion in damage if such a hurricane were to hit the city of Tampa with winds and storm surge similar to Milton’s current forecast. Is.
“The storm in Tampa is the worst Black Swan scenario that experts have been concerned about for years,” Emanuel said.
With Milton on its way to Tampa Bay and the area still vulnerable to Hurricane Helene, officials are urging residents to heed evacuation orders. As President Joe Biden emphasized, “This is a matter of life and death.”
Milton could test Tampa Bay’s resiliency in ways the region has not experienced in more than a century, underscoring its vulnerability to major storms. The combination of geographic factors, urban development, and long-term damage from past hurricanes has placed the region at extreme risk. The real test will come when Milton hits the ground.
(with inputs from agencies)
