Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Russia for the first time since the Ukraine war began

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on his first visit to Russia since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on Monday.
• India’s relations with Russia have become even more strained since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India has maintained a neutral stance towards the conflict and advocated a peaceful solution. Russia has drawn closer to India’s rival China.
• Russia is an important trading partner and defense supplier for India. One researcher said Russian gear accounts for about 60% of India’s military equipment. More than 40% of India’s oil imports come from Russia, according to analysts.

India’s prime minister begins a two-day visit to Russia on Monday, his first since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a war that has complicated relations between the two longtime partners and brought Russia closer to India’s rival China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit will include meetings with the following: President Vladimir PutinThey last met in Russia in 2019 in the Russian Far Eastern port of Vladivostok. The two leaders will meet in person in Uzbekistan in September 2022 at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation bloc.

Russia has had strong ties with India since the Cold War, and New Delhi’s importance as a major trading partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. China and India have become major buyers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies that closed most Western markets to Russian exports.

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India under Modi has refrained from condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine, while stressing the need for a peaceful solution.

However, the partnership between Moscow and New Delhi has become strained since Russia began developing closer ties with India’s main rival China due to the hostilities in Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that Modi stayed away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit held in Kazakhstan last week.

Chittig Bajpai, senior South Asia research fellow at UK-based Chatham House, said India is increasingly isolated from forums where Russia and China play prominent roles.

“This is evident from India’s relatively low-key chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation last year and now Modi’s decision not to attend the summit this year,” Bajpai said.

A clash along the disputed China-India border in June 2020 dramatically altered their already strained relationship as rival troops fought with stones, sticks and fists. At least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed. Tensions remain despite talks.

These tensions are also becoming visible in New Delhi’s attitude towards Moscow.

“Russia has had good relations with China.” A matter of concern for India “The move comes in the context of China’s growing aggression in the region,” D. Bala Venkatesh Varma, India’s former ambassador to Russia, told The Associated Press.

But Modi would also like to continue close ties with Russia, which is an important trading partner and major defense supplier to India.

India has become a major buyer of Russian oil since Western sanctions halted Russian oil exports after the Ukraine war began. India now gets more than 40% of its oil imports from Russia, according to analysts.

India is also heavily dependent on Russia for military supplies, but with fighting in Ukraine affecting Moscow’s supply lines, India is diversifying its defence purchases and buying more from the US, Israel, France and Italy.

“Defence cooperation will clearly be a priority area,” Bajpai said, adding that 60% of India’s military equipment and systems “are still of Russian origin.”

“We have seen some delays in the delivery of spare parts after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “I believe the two countries are about to sign a military logistics agreement, which will pave the way for greater defense exchanges.”

India has taken a neutral stance, neither condemning nor supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine, and calling for negotiations to end the fighting. This in turn has bolstered Putin’s efforts to counter what he calls the West’s dominance over global affairs.

Putin, who faces an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court over the war in Ukraine, has had relatively few foreign trips in recent years, so Modi’s visit could help the Russian leader improve his image.

“We’re seeing Putin go on a memory trip — you know, he was in Vietnam, he was in North Korea,” said Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe, and Asia Studies. “In my view, he’s trying to show that he’s not beholden to China, that he has options, that Russia is still a great power,

Alexander Gabuev, head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Putin’s interactions on the world stage show he is “not isolated” and that Russia is not a country that can be ignored.

Trade development will also figure prominently in the talks, particularly the move to develop a sea corridor between India’s major port Chennai and Vladivostok, the gateway to Russia’s Far East.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra told reporters on Friday that strong energy cooperation has led to rapid growth in India-Russia trade, which is set to reach close to $65 billion in fiscal year 2023-24.

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Kwatra said that in the financial year 2023-24, imports from Russia will reach $ 60 billion and exports from India will reach $ 4 billion. India’s financial year runs from April to March.

He said India is trying to correct the trade imbalance with Russia by increasing its exports. India’s top exports to Russia include medicines and pharmaceutical products, telecommunications equipment, iron and steel, marine products and machinery.

India’s top imports from Russia include crude oil and petroleum products, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, fertilizers, vegetable oils, gold and silver.