Iran’s options dwindle as it prepares retaliation for Nasrallah’s death

In form of Death of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah Confirmed, the immediate question is not whether Iran will respond, but how.

Hezbollah is the creation of the Islamic Republic, built on decades of effort and billions of dollars of support. Formed in 1982 by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah Remains the primary proxy of governance.

Israeli military says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in Beirut attack

Relations between the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali KhameneiAnd Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, was almost family – like father and son. But Nasrallah’s recent mistakes, including intelligence failures and the assassinations of senior commanders, have left Khamenei to manage the fallout. His death has now been added to it.

Iran’s leadership cannot sit idly by while Hezbollah endures these levels of humiliation and damage. Doing so would not only weaken or destroy its most important proxy, but would signal the beginning of the unraveling of its entire regional strategy of eliminating the State of Israel, empowering Islamic groups, and expelling US forces from the Middle East. It is possible ,

Given that this revelation cannot be allowed, Khamenei and his regime have three options to consider.

Iran’s leadership cannot sit idly by while Hezbollah endures these levels of humiliation and damage.

First, provide logistical advice and propaganda support, since the last time there was a direct war between Hezbollah and Israel was in 2006. Ismail Qani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force – an expert in unconventional warfare and military intelligence – and his team, like Qani’s predecessor, would be sent into Hezbollah’s underground war rooms to command and control the Iranian proxy militants, who now Are left. The late Qasim Suleimani did this almost two decades ago. This time, Qaani would also coordinate proxy attacks against Israel from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, although unlike in 2006, it is doubtful that this would change the mentality of the post-October 7 Israeli government, whose actions in recent weeks have Hezbollah has been hit hard. ,

The second option is to escalate the conflict through its proxies to set fire to the area. Based on the idea of ​​de-escalating tensions, this means the IRGC and its proxies will target the interests of the US, Europe and Arab states in the Middle East in hopes of putting external pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Leave. Targets would include oil refineries, commercial shipping, and western military positions throughout the region.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei looks inside a uranium plant. (Getty Images)

Beyond the Middle East, the IRGC will redouble its efforts to wage a campaign of terror against the international Jewish community. They did so in Thailand, India, Cyprus and Bulgaria in 2010, and from October 7, Mossad reportedly Thwarted more than 50 Iran-backed attacks against Jews abroad. The regime may calculate that targeting Jewish citizens abroad could be enough of a reaction to force Netanyahu to step down.

The third option is to attack Israel directly. This would certainly satisfy the most radical constituencies of the IRGC and its proxies, who were already critical of Tehran’s reluctance to directly attack Tel Aviv. New intelligence from Israel and the US has suggested that Hezbollah has urged Iran to intervene directly, but if Khamenei and the IRGC opt for direct attacks, they would have to be far more significant than the symbolic attacks of April this year. Will need to happen. Whether the IRGC can penetrate Israeli defense systems is another matter, but direct Israeli retaliation against IRGC positions in Iran would be almost certain and is an outcome the regime wishes to avoid.

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Which way will Ayatollah’s thumb be? The IRGC’s asymmetric doctrine and military infrastructure suggests that the likely scenario is a combination of the first two options: providing military assistance while creating instability and chaos in the region and beyond.

However, as Khamenei considers his options, he is doing so against a backdrop of economic crisis and a deeply unhappy population. Any weakness in Iran’s economy – including the blow of a $500 billion infrastructure deficit – could fuel further anger among Iranians toward their deeply unpopular rulers. The blow to the regime is welcomed by many domestically, as shown by recent reactions to the killing of senior IRGC commanders, and disagreements arising from poor foreign policy choices could lead to further internal opposition and the Supreme Leader. But can increase the pressure.

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A combination of domestic and international pressure that would undoubtedly come with a strategy of destabilization and chaos – especially under Donald Trump’s presidency – could prove costly for the Ayatollah and his regime. Since Nasrallah has already lost, no matter which path he chooses, Khamenei will suffer even more losses.