Therefore, it is always important to wait till the end of the match to see the true nature of the actual reality (phrase). coined (written by respected Times of India columnist Jug Suraiya) His fiction is contrary to reality.
Elections are not fought on paper, and one should not prejudge or assume that the electorate has already made up its mind. These shocking developments remind us why we should wait until the fat lady sings to do our analysis.
Winners
Lok Sabha Elections
assembly elections
1)
If there is one man who can be considered the MVP of the election, it is Chandrababu Naidu, who must be patting himself on the back for a number of wise decisions. Jailed by the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy government in the Skill Development scam case, he was released on October 31, 2024. Eight months later, he is perhaps the most important ally for the BJP in the NDA, which is set to cross the majority mark thanks to its alliance with the TDP. Naidu was instrumental in forging an alliance with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena and the BJP. Under the seat sharing between the NDA allies, the TDP was allotted 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, while the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats. Meanwhile, the Jana Sena contested two Lok Sabha and 21 assembly seats. In the Andhra Assembly election, the TDP-led alliance is leading in 160 of the 175 seats. The alliance is leading in 21 out of 25 seats in the Lok Sabha, making Naidu, who was part of the UPA alliance in 2019, one of the most important allies of the BJP this time.
2)
In two consecutive elections, it seemed that the BJP was difficult to defeat in Uttar Pradesh. People believed that the BJP would strengthen its position in 2019 as well, even if it did not perform better thanks to the inauguration of the Ram temple. The final figures show that there is a tough competition between the BJP and the SP.
Akhilesh’s SP, the cornerstone of the Bharatiya Janata Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh, is currently leading in 35 seats, while the Congress is ahead in 7 seats. The mantra of Indian politics has always been that the road to Delhi goes through Uttar Pradesh and the journey of the NDA-3 has certainly been even more tumultuous by Akhilesh Yadav and the SP. During the 2017 assembly elections, the unofficial anthem of the Congress-SP alliance was “UP ke ladke” and it may have taken six years to materialise, but it looks like it has finally happened. If things stay the same, they could do even better than 2004.
3) Uddhav Thackeray
Maharashtra politics has not been the same since 2019, when Uddhav Thackeray and the Shiv Sena broke away from the BJP and joined the MVA. It was the biggest breakup since the Beatles with major political upheaval. Since then, Uddhav Thackeray has built his own personal brand that is a stark contrast to his father’s fiery and sulphurous personality, with many praising his calm demeanour The government has taken several steps to deal with the Covid-19 crisis in Maharashtra.
However, the MVA government fell when Eknath Shinde, a one-time protégé of Anand Dighe, split the Shiv Sena, and eventually gained control of the party symbol as well.
This was a big blow to Uddhav Thackeray, who is synonymous with his father’s party. However, as far as voters are concerned, it seems that Uddhav Thackeray is the true heir to the Shiv Sena legacy. At the time of writing, the three parties of the MVA are leading in 28 out of 48 seats and whatever the final count, all eyes will be on Uddhav Thackeray when the Maharashtra Assembly elections come next year.
4)
Throughout his career, Nitish Kumar has made a habit of switching alliances, playing the weather signal reserved for his friend Ram Vilas Paswan since the JP days. Ahead of the elections, Nitish Kumar changed the script once again when he quit the India Bloc even though he was one of its founding members. As the final numbers stand, the JD(U), along with the TDP, could become crucial allies of the BJP going forward. The 14 seats that the JD(U) is leading in will prove to be absolutely crucial to giving the NDA a majority for the third time. At an event with PM Modi in Patna, Nitish Kumar had promised PM Modi that he would not succumb to any kind of pressure. Once again there was a change of heart. The Prime Minister laughed out loud at this, and would certainly hope that his friend-turned-enemy does not have a change of heart in the near future.
5) Rahul Gandhi
For a long time, Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the Indian National Congress, has been under fire, often considered an object of ridicule, a man who can do nothing right. Everything he says is mocked. But, in the words of the only man to have won a Nobel, Oscar, Grammy and Pulitzer, times are changing. Two long Bharat Jodo Yatras, 107 Jan Sampark events and a stupendous effort by the scion of the Gandhi family will see the Congress perform its best in 10 years. The Congress is expected to get close to 100 seats, which may not be as many as his great grandfather, grandmother, father or mother won, but it is certainly an improvement and promises the BJP that winning elections is going to be tough.
the losers
1) Smriti Irani
A lot of column space was spent on Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Rae Bareli instead of his traditional seat of Amethi. Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh called Gandhi a “seasoned player of politics and chess” and said the move was taken after “careful deliberation”. Instead, the Gandhi family’s trusted lieutenant Kishori Lal Sharma was chosen to contest from the seat and is currently leading by a margin of over 82,000 votes against Irani. Five years ago, Irani surprised everyone by defeating Rahul Gandhi in the Gandhi family’s bastion. It looks like if the vote numbers hold, the Congress has managed to win back its family bastion.
2) Arvind Kejriwal
In 2012, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as one of the most talked about figures in Indian politics. The oxygen of publicity was due to several reasons, including the party’s presence in Delhi and its smart use of social media. Though one of the fastest growing parties in the country, Kejriwal will surely be disappointed with the party’s final tally. First, AAP’s performance in Delhi, where it had a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress, was disappointing and the BJP looked set to win all seven seats. In Punjab, AAP is leading in only three seats, a small comeback considering the fact that it recently won the assembly elections in the state. The party had promised to change politics at the time of its formation, but 12 years after its inception, the party’s roar certainly seems stronger than its bite and it has to make do as a minor player in the scheme of national politics.
3) Prajwal Revanna
In the last few weeks, Prajwal Revanna of the JD(S), who is also the grandson of former Prime Minister Deve Gowda and a sitting Lok Sabha MP from Hassan, left the country. Revanna left the country on April 26, even as hundreds of videos allegedly linked to him went viral. He is currently facing multiple cases of sexual assault by several women and is in the custody of the SIT. Many wondered whether a person who has been accused of such heinous crimes should be a public representative, but the election result has rendered that particular debate redundant. At the time of writing, Prajwal Revanna is losing by about 40,000 votes.
4) YS Jaganmohan Reddy
If Chandrababu Naidu is one of the MVPs of the election, Jagan Mohan Reddy is one of its biggest losers. Reddy has been under fire for Andhra Pradesh’s poor financial health as the state grapples with a massive debt of Rs 13.5 lakh crore for his welfare schemes. Sources reveal that voters were disappointed with a number of issues, including poor infrastructure, lack of drinking water, unstable electricity, hefty power bills and high prices of essential commodities. Looking back, the backward party’s policies also backfired, with its attempt to woo Muslims with 4% reservation and similar benefits to the Kapu community alienating voters. His decision to drop 14 sitting MPs and 37 MLAs from the candidate list also led to an exodus from the party. At the time of writing, the YSRCP is leading in only 13 assembly seats and four Lok Sabha seats, a dismal performance compared to their score last time (151 in the assembly and 22 in the Lok Sabha).
5) Exit polls
And finally, the biggest loser in the 2024 Lok Sabha election will without a doubt be the exit polls, which have about as much credibility as the parrots that sometimes come on TV stations to predict elections. Most exit polls had given the BJP a comfortable lead of over 350, with the most meaningful pollsters averaging 371. Reality shows they still haven’t crossed 300. This problem is known to most people who understand basic math, especially in a First-Past-the-Post system, which is often based on vote share, which can be wildly volatile when extrapolated. A prime example is the 2014 Lok Sabha election results where the BJP’s vote share only increased by 12.2PP, but their seat count increased by 166.
The opposition called these surveys Modi surveys. The opposition did not get the required number of seats, but the numbers were so low that some pollsters were seen shedding tears on live television. Coming back to our basic quantum mechanics trope, it is impossible to predict whether the cat is dead or alive until a box is opened. And doing so based on exit polls is dangerous.
