Will the Mahayuti win or the Maha Vikas Aghadi? With the BMC elections pending, this will be the first clear contest between the two groups.
Will the sympathy factor work for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar? Pawar Or will voters recognise the rebellion of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar and approve of what the opposition calls BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’? The answers to these questions will determine the immediate future of both rival alliances and the future of the key figures in them, as the state heads towards the assembly elections in October this year.
All eyes will be on Maharashtra, which sends the second-highest number of MPs (48) to the Lok Sabha after UP and is the only state where ‘Operation Lotus’ has worked twice by splitting two regional parties. The state which once had four major parties now has six of them with three-party alliances: the BJP-led Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
Lok Sabha Elections
assembly elections
In 2019, the saffron parties had won a landslide victory in Maharashtra, with the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena winning 41 of the 48 seats in the state. The undivided NCP won 4 seats and the Congress, which had ruled the state for decades, had to settle for one seat.
The rebel leaders, CM Eknath Shinde and Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar, have the lion’s share of MLAs, the party name and the election symbol. But have they managed to hold on to the party’s vote base? For the BJP, the result will also show whether this strategy of breaking up opposition parties can become a model for other states. The result will have an immediate impact on the assembly elections, which are just six months away.
The scorecard between the Mahayuti and MVA allies will redefine the power equations at the time of seat sharing for the state elections.
The faction that loses in the Shiv Sena and NCP may have to leave the party as ticket seekers will want to be on the winning side. This will raise questions about the long-term survival of that faction.
Before the elections, there was a conflict between the two alliances over seat sharing. In the Mahayuti, the BJP contested 28 seats, Shinde’s Shiv Sena 15, Ajit Pawar’s NCP 4 and his ally RSP contested one seat. Shinde performed more than his potential and managed to snatch Nashik, Mumbai South and Thane from the BJP, leaving the party workers upset.
Within the MVA, the UBT Sena contested 21 seats, the Congress 17 and the NCP(SP) 10. The Sena (UBT) insisted on contesting from Sangli and Mumbai South Central, causing trouble for the Congress, which had strong candidates in these seats. As a result, Congress’s potential candidate Vishal Patil is contesting as an independent from Sangli.
The split between the Shiv Sena and the NCP overshadowed other issues in the state, especially in their strongholds Mumbai and the sugar belt of western Maharashtra. The appeal of Prime Minister Modi or the popularity of the ruling party he faced was also a big factor. Other issues included price rise, unemployment, agrarian distress and the alleged exodus of industry from Maharashtra to Gujarat.
Resentment over the Maratha quota and the counter-integration of the OBC community is also expected to have an impact on the vote. The results will also reveal whether the allegations levelled by the opposition that the election results will lead to changes in the Constitution and affect the SC quota have proven to be true.
Tuesday’s results will impact the political future of Maharashtra’s key players. For CM Shinde, a win will help him retain the chair. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis needs a win to remain the main BJP leader in the state and dominate seat sharing within the Mahayuti for the assembly elections. For NCP’s Ajit Pawar, it is important that he scores against his uncle, especially in his stronghold Baramati, to stay on the political chessboard.
Both Uddhav and Sharad Pawar are fighting for survival, stripped of their MLAs, party name and election symbol. The Shiv Sena lost 40 of its 56 MLAs in the rebellion and Pawar’s party lost 41 of its 53 MLAs. Assembly Speaker Rahul Narvekar ruled out violation of the anti-defection law in both cases and declared the rebel group the “real” party. These decisions have been challenged in court.
And for the Congress, a win in this state, which it once ruled, is crucial for morale. Before the Lok Sabha elections, it lost its leaders Ashok Chavan and Milind Deora, who joined the BJP and the Sena and went on to win Rajya Sabha seats. It is important for the party to perform well in the Lok Sabha elections to keep its supporters united ahead of the assembly elections.
