Welcome to the second edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of the top international news. The stories are moving at a very fast pace. Iran launches a major missile attack against Israel, Ukraine is getting increased military aid from the US, China again promises the unification of Taiwan, Japan gets a new leader, and Morocco scores another victory. Is of. So let’s get down to it:
Iran’s missile attack on Israel: Iran launched massive missile attacks against Israel, which it said were retaliation for the Israeli killing Hezbollah Major Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and an IRGC commander. About 200 missiles were fired, including for the first time a hypersonic Fatah missile, a large number of which actually evaded Israeli air defenses and hit their targets. Although there was no major damage in Israel, there was damage to military airports and civilian infrastructure.
The attack came shortly after Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon with the stated goal of eliminating Hezbollah. But here’s a twist: The Lebanese government has now revealed that both Hezbollah and Israel had agreed to the US-France proposed ceasefire before Nasrallah was killed in a major airstrike in Tel Aviv. If so, it would impact Iran’s decision to launch an attack against Israel. After all, Tehran had shown restraint when Hamas’s Haniyeh was killed by a bomb in Tehran. It can no longer be seen standing idle as Israel has ousted its regional representatives one by one.
That said, neither Iran nor Israel – let alone the US and the larger international community – want things to get out of control. Like in April when Iran launched another bombardment of missiles on Israel, this time Tehran had telegraphed the attack well in advance – the message was sent to the Americans through the Iranian Embassy in Switzerland. True, Israel has said it will make Iran pay for the latest attack. But America certainly does not want things to deteriorate. Thus, Israel’s response is likely to be measured. Also, Tel Aviv is now focusing on its Lebanon operations. Hezbollah is not Hamas. Its firepower is much greater and it is preparing for an Israeli attack. The last time Israeli forces went to Lebanon in 2006, Tel Aviv did not fare well. Even though Nasrallah has been eliminated, Hezbollah’s fighting arm remains formidable. And unlike Hamas, the Shia group is not without a state.
But here’s a question for the US: Can it really be an honest broker of peace if on the one hand it tries to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah, and on the other hand praises the elimination of the Hezbollah chief? After all, Hezbollah is a parliamentary faction in Lebanon. At worst, the whole episode shows how little influence Washington has over Benjamin Netanyahu today.
Ukraine got a boost: In a big boost to Ukraine’s military, the US announced $8 billion in new military aid, which will include a long-range bomb, known as the Joint Standoff Weapon. These long-range weapons are exactly what Ukraine needs to turn the tide of the war. But Kiev’s Western partners have been much slower to fulfill them. Additionally, the US has imposed a ban on the use of such long-range weapons, depriving Ukrainian forces of the ability to attack Russian military targets inside Russia. But Moscow, free from such sanctions, is using those Russian military assets and bases to attack Ukrainian cities, civilian infrastructure, and Ukraine’s energy systems. As a result, with numbers and odds being against them, Ukrainian forces had to make a tactical retreat, as was recently witnessed in the border town of Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces are also facing difficult conditions in Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Given this situation, Ukraine needs two things – joint air defense with neighboring European countries, and fast delivery of weapons. If these two conditions are met, Ukraine will be in a position of sufficient strength and meaningful peace negotiations can take place to end the war. The world must understand that allowing Russia to slow down is not creating favorable conditions for negotiations. Standing with Ukraine is working for Ukraine.
Xi promises reunification: Chinese President Xi Jinping promised reunification with Taiwan on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Reintegrating Taiwan into ‘Mainland China’ has become Xi’s favorite topic. This is despite the fact that the Chinese Communist Party has never set foot on Taiwan. At the same time, Taiwan today has a thriving democracy and Taiwanese people, especially the youth, want nothing to do with Beijing. In fact, current Taiwanese President William Lai has been ridiculously labeled as a ‘separatist’ by Beijing.
True, China has not ruled out using force to subdue Taiwan. But at present there seems to be no possibility of a full-scale Chinese attack on Taiwan. First, Taiwan is making much-needed reforms to its military. Second, the US is increasingly transferring weapons platforms and military-technical know-how to the island nation. And third, regional countries have begun contingency preparations for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. At the same time, China has seen how deeply Russia has become entrenched in Ukraine. He will definitely think a hundred times before launching a direct attack against Taiwan.
However, China is draining its power for a very different reason. And this applies to India also. My assessment is that China is keeping open the option of a limited attack on Taiwan or India in 2027, at the time of the next Chinese Communist Party Congress. If Xi is still in complete control and everything is going according to his plan, he will do nothing. But if an internal Communist Party moves to remove him, or if China’s economy deteriorates, he may try to remove him and increase support for his leadership through nationalist sentiment by attacking Taiwan or India in a limited way. Will try. Since thousands of Indian and Chinese troops are still facing each other in the high Himalayas, another border skirmish is possible. Xi will see – if he needs to – whether he needs such a border skirmish with India or a limited move against Taiwan to ensure his re-election in 2027. Both New Delhi and Taipei need to prepare accordingly.
Ishiba becomes the new Prime Minister of Japan: Shigeru Ishiba Became the new Prime Minister of Japan at a critical time for the nation. Ishiba won the ruling LDP’s internal leadership election, which was seen as a faction-free election. Ishiba is an interesting personality. He has previously clashed with LDP leaders on policy matters and is known for holding views contrary to the party. For example, he favors allowing gay marriage and reforming Japan’s marital naming law that forces married couples to share a surname – something that is limited to Japanese women.
Similarly, one of Ishiba’s more radical views is his support for an Asian NATO. He has said that the fate that Ukraine is facing today may also be faced by Asia tomorrow without a collective security system. He is clearly pointing to the threat from an increasingly assertive China. An Asian NATO that guarantees mutual defense would serve Japan well, given that its constitution places limits on its military. At the same time, there are a substantial number of Asian countries that are concerned about the Chinese threat.
However, China still remains the largest trading partner and increasingly the largest investor for many East Asian countries. Therefore, attitudes about China are also classified. However, under Xi Jinping, China has become unpredictable and is not averse to using nationalist sentiments to increase support for the communist regime. This is a slippery slope that can lead to miscalculation, especially on Taiwan. Therefore, some form of mutual defense arrangement in Asia, if not an Asian NATO, will become increasingly important. An extended quad-plus anyone?
Rabat’s hand strengthened: Denmark has become the latest European nation to recognize Morocco’s autonomy plan vis-à-vis the Moroccan Sahara issue. It will be recalled that the Moroccan Sahara issue is a topic left over from the colonization process of Africa. This part of the Sahara was a Spanish exclave until 1975. But the region had historical ties with Morocco and the famous Green March had seen Moroccans peacefully reunify the region. But due to its geopolitical rivalry with Morocco, Algeria has continued to support the Polisario Front separatist group and its Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. The latter is recognized by neither the United Nations nor the Arab League.
In short, Algeria uses the Polisario to exert strategic control over Morocco. But this strategy is failing. In 2020, the US recognized Morocco’s autonomy plan – meaningful autonomy for the Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty – and recognized Rabat’s status in practice. Subsequently, the US and several countries have opened their consulates in Moroccan resort cities such as Dakhla and Laayoune. This US support for Morocco’s position was reiterated this week when Washington again stressed that Morocco’s autonomy plan was “serious, credible and realistic”. And earlier this year, even France, a key player in Francophone Africa, recognized Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only viable solution to the Sahara issue.
It is pertinent to note here that Algeria is supported by Russia and Morocco has military ties with the US. With the current geopolitical confrontation between Washington and Moscow, Rabat’s strengthening hand has considerable strategic implications in Africa and beyond.
