- In February 2023, the Philippines government decided to change tactics and go public with its encounters with the Chinese military, in order to generate international support and awareness, as well as force Beijing to face reputational consequences.
- The publicity surrounding China’s actions and Manila’s deepening military alliance with the United States have limited Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea, but the risk of Chinese economic retaliation and American intervention has increased.
- The main point of dispute between China and the Philippines is sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where clashes have occurred involving aggressive maneuvers and water splashes.
The senior Philippine officials gathered in the Presidential Situation Room in February last year were faced with a tough choice.
Military and intelligence officials watched as coast guard officials showed images of a military-grade laser that the agency said was aimed by China at a Philippine ship in disputed waters days ago.
Eduardo Ano, the national security adviser and chairman of the South China Sea taskforce, had to decide whether to risk Beijing’s displeasure by releasing the photos or avoid further upsetting its giant neighbour.
“The public has a right to know. Publish the pictures,” the retired general told officials.
The meeting, previously kept secret, was a defining moment as Manila launched a propaganda campaign to escalate regional tensions. Dispute in the South China SeaWhere tensions have rapidly escalated, with ships being rammed, water cannon being used, and resulting diplomatic protests.
“This was a turning point and the transparency policy was born,” National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya, who attended the meeting and recalled the conversation, told Reuters. “The goal was ultimately to cause serious damage to Beijing’s reputation, image and prestige.”
An aerial view of the BRP Sierra Madre is shown on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on March 9, 2023. The Philippine Navy intentionally ran the ship ashore in 1999 to bolster Manila’s sovereignty claims over the shoal. (Reuters/File Photo)
Malaya said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had instructed officials to make the dispute “civil and international,” which they achieved by using the coast guard and regularly including foreign journalists on missions. “This became a key component of building international support for the Philippines, because our audience is also foreign governments,” he said.
This account of the Philippines’ policy shift and its implications is based on interviews with 20 Philippine and Chinese officials, regional diplomats and analysts. They said China’s publicizing of its actions and Manila’s deepening military alliance with the United States have limited Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea but have increased the risk of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. involvement.
The February 2023 meeting comes just days after Marcos granted the US access to four more military bases in the Philippines, reviving defense ties that had soured under his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.
“China is left with no choice but to invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty and risk a military confrontation between Chinese and US forces,” said Ian Storey, a security scholar at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Marcos has also adopted a diplomatic offensive, obtaining statements of support for the Philippines’ position from countries such as Canada, Germany, India, and Japan.
The South China Sea is rich in oil and gas. About $3 trillion worth of trade passes through it every year. US access to Philippine bases could prove crucial. War on Taiwan,
Philippines warns of ‘red line’ with Beijing amid rising tensions in South China Sea
China, whose claims to much of the sea were invalidated by an international tribunal in 2016, says Philippine ships illegally intrude into waters around disputed shores. It has warned Marcos, who takes office in June 2022, against misjudging the situation.
“It’s a risk-taking strategy, poker,” said Philippine legal scholar Jay Batongbacal. “Risk-taking strategy involves pushing things to the edge, trying to see who loses their patience. Poker is a game of cheating and being cheated – one can do both at the same time.”
In response to questions from Reuters, China’s Foreign Ministry said the Philippines was “escalating tensions through provocative actions at sea in an attempt to violate China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.”
It said that China will safeguard its interests by resolving the dispute peacefully through dialogue.
A US State Department spokesperson said Manila’s transparency initiative has succeeded in attracting greater attention. China’s “disregard for international law” and actions that endangered Philippine military members.
The spokesperson did not comment on the risk of US military intervention, but said the US would support the Philippines if it faced economic pressure from China.
Conflict in the South China Sea
The conflict is over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippine Navy has a rusting warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, beached in 1999 to assert Manila’s sovereignty claims. It is manned by a small crew.
Chinese ships have tried to prevent resupply missions by surrounding Philippine vessels and firing water cannon, shattering one boat’s windshield and injuring its crew members in March. Manila released footage of the incident; China said it acted legally and professionally.
In February, Philippine ships recorded Chinese counterparts blocking the entrance to Scarborough Shoal. This week, the two sides exchanged accusations over a collision between their ships near Second Thomas Shoal.
Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarrilla takes aim at Chinese authorities and state media, sometimes posting drone footage of maritime clashes. “If I was doing something wrong, I would have been shut down,” he said.
Tarriella said the transparency campaign has worked by mobilizing support for Manila, while the extent of China’s aggression has not changed despite the increase in incidents.
“They are still relying on their water cannon… they are still sticking to the same tactics,” he said.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in January that the number of Chinese ships around Second Thomas Shoal during Philippine resupply missions will increase from an average of one ship in 2021 to about 14 in 2023.
Chinese coast guard stops medical evacuation, Philippines says: ‘Barbaric and inhumane’
According to Philippine officials, last month China’s coast guard came within a few feet of the Sierra Madre and seized supplies airdropped for troops stationed there. China, whose navy was patrolling nearby, said Filipino troops pointed guns at its coast guard; Manila said they simply held on to their weapons.
Philippine authorities say they fear the deadly accident could escalate into open hostilities.
“This keeps many of us up at night,” Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippines’ ambassador to Washington, told Reuters.
Manila also wants to avoid the kind of economic pressure it faced about a decade ago, when lengthy Chinese customs checks caused Philippine bananas to rot at Chinese ports.
China was the Philippines’ second-largest export market in 2023, taking in about $11 billion or 14.8% of all its shipments. China is the Philippines’ top source of imports, mainly refined petroleum products and electronics.
Romualdez said Manila hoped China would “understand the importance of continuing our economic activity while we try to resolve this issue peacefully”.
University of the Philippines political scientist Edcel John Ibarra said Marcos risks provoking China to take “hardline approaches such as non-tariff barriers and tourism bans.” He pointed to changes announced by China in May that allow its coast guard to detain foreigners for up to 60 days without trial.
China feels ‘lost’ by Philippines’s propaganda approach
The intensity of Manila’s campaign has surprised its neighbors. Vietnam and Malaysia, which also have maritime disputes with Beijing, have been more cautious about what they release from their ships. Clashes with China,
“We are all monitoring this and talking to each other,” said one Asian diplomat, who asked not to be named. “The Philippines has come up with a new strategy to stand up to Beijing on the issue of confrontation.”
Marcos said in December that diplomacy with China had achieved little, and called on Southeast Asia to “achieve a paradigm shift.”
China’s state media has expressed displeasure at the transparency effort.
The state-backed Global Times said in an editorial in May that the Philippines was “playing the role of victim to deceive international public opinion.”
A key aspect of Manila’s approach has been to strengthen the US alliance. The two countries clarified in May last year that their defense treaty also includes the coast guard. In April, Marcos attended An unprecedented summit alongside their American and Japanese counterparts.
Click here to get the Fox News app
A US official involved in US-China talks that month said Chinese officials had complained about these diplomatic successes behind closed doors, and said Beijing was “feeling pressured”.
Some Chinese scholars, such as Zha Daojiong of Peking University’s School of International Studies, say the situation is at an impasse and that China will continue to adopt an “inevitably reactive” attitude to explosive issues such as the Second Thomas Scholl.
“By responding to the Philippines’ action, my guess is they want to send a message that this area is disputed,” he said.
