A majority of Californians say they will vote in the November election, but for those who aren’t sure, there’s a common reason: They don’t like the presidential candidates.
The findings come from a survey released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies that asked 5,095 registered voters across California to consider their likelihood of voting in the Nov. 5 general election, which will feature a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump.
The survey, conducted for the nonprofit Evelyn and Walter Haas Jr. Fund, found that about 78% of registered California voters say they are very or very likely to vote. The survey also found that intention to vote varies widely by age, race and political affiliation — as well as the reasons why people say they are unlikely to vote.
Californians who consider themselves highly likely to vote say participating in a presidential election is the top reason. But among those who say they are less likely to vote, 40% cite not liking the presidential candidates as the reason. That rises to 55% among voters who have voted regularly in the past but are unsure whether they will vote this year.
Trump, a Republican, is now contesting as the first president Former president convicted of crimes Last month, a jury convicted him of falsifying records in a scheme to hide payments to a porn actor who alleged they had an affair. Biden, a Democrat, has faced criticism from some in his own party for his support of Israel in its war against Hamas as well as his moves to end the war. Restrict asylum at the Mexico borderAnd both are facing questions about their ages: Trump is 77 and Biden is 81.
“The presidential election looks to be damaging to both sides,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll. “It’s a motivating factor for people who are already in favor and likely to vote, but it seems to be deterring others.”
The survey found that Democrats and liberals were more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say that their dislike of presidential candidates was a reason they might not vote.
More than 1 in 3 voters in the state said they would not vote because “special interests and big money are controlling things,” and nearly 3 in 10 voters said they were not well informed about the issues and candidates.
“It’s clear that when it comes to our politics, there is less trust and more cynicism,” Jonathan Mehta-Stein, executive director of California Common Cause, said in a statement.
The Nov. 5 polls in California will be a long one, involving the presidential election, a growing list of candidates, and more. Statewide ballot initiatives and several competitive legislative races that Determining which party controls CongressSome races in the purple areas are expected to be won by very narrow margins.
Overall, the survey found that the groups most likely to vote are people over the age of 65, white voters, Republicans, homeowners, and people with postgraduate degrees.
The groups for which the fewest people said they would vote include voters who are young, Black or Asian American, those who have not received any education after high school, or who are naturalized citizens.
“It’s very similar to what we’ve seen in past elections — that older voters, white voters, better-educated voters are the most inclined to vote,” DiCamillo said.
The survey found that the likelihood of voting varied greatly by race. Among white respondents, 90% said they were very or very likely to vote. That share was 66% among black voters, 70% among Latino voters, and 62% among Asian American voters.
DiCamillo said the foundation provided special funding to focus on Asian Americans, California’s fastest-growing demographic group.
The survey used voter list information to find voters who requested voting materials in Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese, then asked survey questions in those languages. (The survey always asks questions in both English and Spanish.)
DiCamillo said the results “provide a better picture of those voting areas than ever before” and suggest there are wide disparities in voting trends among Asian Americans.
Nearly 2 in 3 Vietnamese Americans described themselves as extremely likely to vote. That rate rose to 71% among other Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, including Filipino and Japanese Americans.
By comparison, less than half of Korean Americans and 54% of Chinese Americans said they were likely to vote.
The survey also asked California registered voters how they could be more active in the general election.
White and Asian American voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote if they felt “the ballot or the candidate would advance my interests.”
Latino voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote if “election results were more trustworthy.” And Black voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote if they “had access to unbiased and trustworthy news sources about the election.”
Christian Arana, vice president of the Latino Community Foundation, said in a statement that investing in voter education is crucial to ensure voters “understand the importance and impact of their vote.”
Voters under the age of 30 were four times more likely than voters over the age of 65 to say that “receiving more information about how and when to vote” could improve their participation.
They were also more likely to say that their voting behavior would change if voting were more convenient, or if they had “assistance from a person or group I trust to help me better understand the issues and candidates.”
DiCamillo cautioned that just because 78% of respondents described themselves as extremely likely to vote doesn’t mean 78% will turn out. He said most voters have good intentions about voting, “but they probably overestimate it.”
During the 2020 presidential election, More than 80% More than 1,000,000 registered voters in California cast a ballot, the highest percentage since 1976.
The survey was conducted in five languages from May 29 to June 4. The margin of error was estimated to be plus or minus 2 percentage points for the overall sample of registered voters, and may be higher for subgroups.
