The result came after the BJP split two regional parties—the Shiv Sena and the NCP—with the aim of splitting the opposition and increasing its own numbers. Instead, it consolidated the opposition vote, with the Congress gaining the most. The Congress replaced the BJP as the single largest party in the state, leading or winning 13 seats. This was a dramatic turnaround from its historic low of winning just one seat in 2019.
Reacting to the results, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray said the Bharatiya Janata Party should stake claim to form the government at the Centre. “We will hold a meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) to discuss this. It is not as if the BJP has not troubled Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu who are currently with the NDA.”
Lok Sabha Elections
assembly elections
Within the Mahayuti, the BJP’s tally fell from 23 in 2019 to just 9 seats, leading or winning. Shinde’s Sena led or won 7 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP had to settle for just one seat. Union ministers including Raosaheb Danve (Jalna) and Bharati Pawar (Dindori) lost and minister of state Sudhir Mungantiwar lost from Chandrapur.
In the MVA, Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) won or led in 9 seats and the NCP (SP) won or led in 8 seats. Both parties won more seats than the parties that broke away from them. The most watched contest in the state was Sharad Pawar in Baramati.Supriya Sule, daughter of Ajit Pawar, defeated Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar.
Observers say it is clear that the Mahayuti’s strategy of relying on PM Modi’s appeal has not yielded any results. On the contrary, ‘Operation Lotus’ backfired and generated sympathy for Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. In fact, an alliance with Ajit Pawar, who was targeted by the BJP during the irrigation scam, may upset the party’s core voters.
Besides, Modi’s statements during the Lok Sabha campaign about appeasing Muslims, calling Sharad Pawar a “wandering soul” and the Shiv Sena a “fake army” have also backfired.
Inflation, unemployment, agrarian crisis and the opposition’s message that if Modi comes back to power, the Constitution will be amended to abolish the SC quota were major factors that influenced the results. The Maratha agitation also harmed the Mahayuti, especially in its core Marathwada.
Experts say the consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes helped the MVA. An NCP functionary said, “The youth are facing unemployment, farmers are upset with the policies of the Centre and these sections went against the Mahayuti. Muslims and Dalits united in favour of the MVA.”
The Lok Sabha results will have an impact on the state assembly elections which are to be held after six months.
How did the two forces fare? Shiv Sena UBT won 9 seats, just two more than Shinde’s Shiv Sena. However, it too had contested 21 seats as against Shinde’s 15. Thackeray’s strike rate for victory was 43% while Shinde’s was 47%. But Thackeray dominated in Mumbai, winning two seats to Shinde’s one in the three contests between the parties in the city. However, in the Thane region, Shinde’s party swept both the seats it contested against Shiv Sena (UBT).
In the Konkan region, which has been the stronghold of the Thackeray family, the Shiv Sena (UBT) lost both seats. Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg was captured by Uddhav Thackeray’s protege former CM Narayan Rane. This is the first time the BJP has won a seat in the Konkan region.
Among the factions of NCP, Sharad Pawar’s party took lead in 8 seats and won in his stronghold Baramati. Ajit Pawar had to be content with the victory of sitting MP Sunil Tatkare in Raigad. Pawar senior contested on 10 seats and his strike rate was 80%. Ajit Pawar’s party contested on 4 seats and his strike rate was 25%.
The Congress contested 17 seats and won 13, giving it a strike rate of 76%. “The MVA allies worked together down to the booth level and supported each other. That’s what worked for us,” said Prithviraj Chavan of the Congress.
Meanwhile, the BJP contested 28 seats and won 9, with a strike rate of 32%. It suffered a major setback in the Vidarbha region, from where Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis hails, where its tally fell from 5 in 2019 to just 2.
The party did not win a single seat in Marathwada, which has been the epicentre of the Maratha reservation movement, and is also hit by a severe drought.
BJP’s seats also decreased in its stronghold North Maharashtra, where the ban on onion export quota imposed by the Central Government became an election issue. Here its seats decreased from 3 to 1. BJP’s seats also decreased from 4 to 1 in Western Maharashtra and from 3 to 1 in Mumbai.
Reacting to the decision, Thackeray said, “This is a victory for democracy. The prime minister should have held more rallies. Wherever he campaigned, the BJP lost.”
“The unfortunate outcome of the results is that the opposition tried to win seats by campaigning that we will change the Constitution. But the mandate of the people in the elections has to be accepted as it is,” Fadnavis tweeted.
