Karnataka was the only southern state that played a significant role in promoting BJPIt won 25 out of 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha with a record vote share of 51.2%, taking the national tally to 303. Election, Of particular importance beyond this astonishing achievement was the BJP’s ability to navigate through coalitions. Congress and the JD(S) led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, which then formed a coalition government under the leadership of HD Kumaraswamy.
Despite the combined efforts of both these parties, which have a strong voter base in the southern part of the state, the BJP managed to make substantial gains by winning 11/14 seats.
Fast forward to 2024. A significant change has been seen in the political dynamics, with the BJP forming an alliance with the JD(S) to counter the revived Congress, which is buoyed by its remarkable victory in the 2023 assembly elections.
PM Modi and Gowda have held a few joint rallies to boost the alliance’s prospects in southern Karnataka, where voting will take place on Friday.
For the JD(S), survival is now the primary concern after its disappointing performance in the assembly elections, especially in the Old Mysore region, which has historically been the party’s stronghold. While the Lingayats hold influence in northern Karnataka, the Vokkaligas hold influence in the old Mysore areas.
Recognizing the serious nature of the fight, Kumaraswamy, who is the party president in-charge, entered the fray from Mandya as part of a broader strategy to take on the Congress. Son Nikhil suffered a humiliating defeat against Sumalatha Ambareesh in the 2019 elections, which remains a bitter pill for the Gowda family, as Mandya is considered their political stronghold and the center of Vokkaliga politics. After not getting a re-election ticket, Sumalatha joined the BJP, but has not yet actively campaigned for the HDK. However, his supporters rallied behind the voters, stressing that his victory was crucial to retaining the JD(S) and protecting the interests of the Vokkaliga.
CM Siddaramaiah faces a serious challenge on his home turf – Mysuru – where the BJP has fielded Mysuru royal family chief Yaduveer Krishnadutt Chamaraja Wadiyar against Congress’s M Laxman, a low-profile party. There are loyalists and Vokkaligas. The Congress is banking on Siddaramaiah’s political acumen and popularity to counter the BJP’s chances in this constituency, which has been favoring the BJP since 2014. Congress’s defeat will directly affect Siddaramaiah’s reputation and potentially jeopardize his tenure as CM. There is already speculation about DK Shivakumar becoming his successor after the Lok Sabha elections or within the next one and a half years. His eagerness to win was evident as he campaigned and appealed to voters to support Congress candidates if they wanted continuity of the present government and electoral guarantees for the next five years.
In addition to high-profile seats, there are several serious battles underway, often revolving around dynastic succession. Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna, who is seeking re-election from Hassan, faces tough opposition from Shreyas Patel, son of former Hassan MP Puttaswamy Gowda, who had earlier defeated the former prime minister. Additionally, observers say tensions between JD(S) and BJP supporters could potentially work in Patel’s favor. However, surpassing its previous election record may be a challenge for the BJP or NDA, as the current popularity of the Congress government, especially among rural voters and women, is due to the five guarantees. However, the BJP remains optimistic about securing 15 or more seats, citing past examples where voters in Karnataka have favored the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and the BJP consistently winning more than 15 seats since 2004.
The BJP’s campaign has revolved around Modi and his achievements over the decade, contrasting them with the alleged failures of the Congress. The JD(S)-BJP partnership, termed a “natural alliance”, is dependent on seamless transfer of votes between the parties in south Karnataka to reach its target of 20 seats.
“Last time, when Congress and JD(S) formed an alliance, we failed to work as a united unit. This time, however, things have happened more effectively, and there is no doubt that we will repeat the BJP’s success in 2024,” said BJP state president BY Vijayendra.
For Congress president DK Shivakumar, southern Karnataka holds great importance in securing the Vok-Kaliga support base. In the assembly elections, the community had rallied behind him, ignoring the JD(S) in hopes of his ascension to the CM office. The results of the Lok Sabha elections will decide whether he is successful in maintaining this support or not.
The future of the Congress government also hangs in the balance, especially amid speculations that its poor performance could lead to its downfall, as was seen after the 2019 elections. “We are confident that we will win 20 seats this time and ensure the defeat of JD(S) on all seats in South Karnataka,” DKS claims. “We hope to secure most of these seats in the Vokkaliga belt, as people have lost trust in the JD(S). There will be no JD(S) left in the state after the Lok Sabha elections.
Despite the combined efforts of both these parties, which have a strong voter base in the southern part of the state, the BJP managed to make substantial gains by winning 11/14 seats.
Fast forward to 2024. A significant change has been seen in the political dynamics, with the BJP forming an alliance with the JD(S) to counter the revived Congress, which is buoyed by its remarkable victory in the 2023 assembly elections.
PM Modi and Gowda have held a few joint rallies to boost the alliance’s prospects in southern Karnataka, where voting will take place on Friday.
For the JD(S), survival is now the primary concern after its disappointing performance in the assembly elections, especially in the Old Mysore region, which has historically been the party’s stronghold. While the Lingayats hold influence in northern Karnataka, the Vokkaligas hold influence in the old Mysore areas.
Recognizing the serious nature of the fight, Kumaraswamy, who is the party president in-charge, entered the fray from Mandya as part of a broader strategy to take on the Congress. Son Nikhil suffered a humiliating defeat against Sumalatha Ambareesh in the 2019 elections, which remains a bitter pill for the Gowda family, as Mandya is considered their political stronghold and the center of Vokkaliga politics. After not getting a re-election ticket, Sumalatha joined the BJP, but has not yet actively campaigned for the HDK. However, his supporters rallied behind the voters, stressing that his victory was crucial to retaining the JD(S) and protecting the interests of the Vokkaliga.
CM Siddaramaiah faces a serious challenge on his home turf – Mysuru – where the BJP has fielded Mysuru royal family chief Yaduveer Krishnadutt Chamaraja Wadiyar against Congress’s M Laxman, a low-profile party. There are loyalists and Vokkaligas. The Congress is banking on Siddaramaiah’s political acumen and popularity to counter the BJP’s chances in this constituency, which has been favoring the BJP since 2014. Congress’s defeat will directly affect Siddaramaiah’s reputation and potentially jeopardize his tenure as CM. There is already speculation about DK Shivakumar becoming his successor after the Lok Sabha elections or within the next one and a half years. His eagerness to win was evident as he campaigned and appealed to voters to support Congress candidates if they wanted continuity of the present government and electoral guarantees for the next five years.
In addition to high-profile seats, there are several serious battles underway, often revolving around dynastic succession. Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna, who is seeking re-election from Hassan, faces tough opposition from Shreyas Patel, son of former Hassan MP Puttaswamy Gowda, who had earlier defeated the former prime minister. Additionally, observers say tensions between JD(S) and BJP supporters could potentially work in Patel’s favor. However, surpassing its previous election record may be a challenge for the BJP or NDA, as the current popularity of the Congress government, especially among rural voters and women, is due to the five guarantees. However, the BJP remains optimistic about securing 15 or more seats, citing past examples where voters in Karnataka have favored the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and the BJP consistently winning more than 15 seats since 2004.
The BJP’s campaign has revolved around Modi and his achievements over the decade, contrasting them with the alleged failures of the Congress. The JD(S)-BJP partnership, termed a “natural alliance”, is dependent on seamless transfer of votes between the parties in south Karnataka to reach its target of 20 seats.
“Last time, when Congress and JD(S) formed an alliance, we failed to work as a united unit. This time, however, things have happened more effectively, and there is no doubt that we will repeat the BJP’s success in 2024,” said BJP state president BY Vijayendra.
For Congress president DK Shivakumar, southern Karnataka holds great importance in securing the Vok-Kaliga support base. In the assembly elections, the community had rallied behind him, ignoring the JD(S) in hopes of his ascension to the CM office. The results of the Lok Sabha elections will decide whether he is successful in maintaining this support or not.
The future of the Congress government also hangs in the balance, especially amid speculations that its poor performance could lead to its downfall, as was seen after the 2019 elections. “We are confident that we will win 20 seats this time and ensure the defeat of JD(S) on all seats in South Karnataka,” DKS claims. “We hope to secure most of these seats in the Vokkaliga belt, as people have lost trust in the JD(S). There will be no JD(S) left in the state after the Lok Sabha elections.
