NEWFIELDS, New Hampshire — A new poll in New Hampshire for this year’s only competitive gubernatorial election shows the battle for the popular Republican governor’s seat is closely contested. Governor Chris Sununu.
The survey results, along with another poll released earlier in the week in the Granite State, show that former President Trump’s A New Hampshire runoff could spell trouble for Republicans in the race for the White House.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig holds a slim 47%-46% lead over Republican candidate and former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, according to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Thursday.
A poll released earlier this week by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center also indicated a coin toss race, with Ayotte in a slight lead.
New Hampshire holds primary selection for 2024 election
Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Republican gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire, speaks to voters at the Hampton Beach Seafood Festival on September 7, 2024. (Kelly Ayotte Campaign)
Because of her six years in the Senate and her stint as state attorney general before serving on Capitol Hill, Ayotte has far more recognition than Craig and also has a significant edge in campaign cash over her opponent.
But new polls show Trump is doing Ayotte no favours.
What did Ayotte tell Fox News during her New Hampshire campaign trip?
“Kelly is very popular, but I think Trump is a liability,” Granite State-based GOP consultant and former state Attorney General Tom Rath told Fox News.
Trump trails by about 3,000 votes new Hampshire This has been the case since his victory in the 2016 presidential election. But four years ago, President Biden beat Trump in New Hampshire by seven points.
Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, delivers a speech with supporters, campaign staff and family members during his primary night rally at the Sheraton on January 23, 2024 in Nashua, NH. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
UNH survey Polls indicate Trump is 11 points behind Vice President Kamala Harris. And a Saint Anselm College poll points to an upper single-digit lead for Harris in New Hampshire.
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“If this were a straight election without the presidential race, I think Kelly would have an edge just outside the margin of error,” argued Rath, who remains unaffiliated in the 2024 Republican presidential primary and served as a top adviser to then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Trump rival in the 2016 GOP nomination battle.
“Trump is certainly an important figure for Kelly and his campaign at this point, and she’s the lead,” a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist told Fox News.
Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, arrives to speak during a campaign stop at Throwback Brewery on September 4, 2024 in North Hampton, NH. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
The strategist, who requested anonymity to speak more freely, said Ayotte’s “status as a prominent figure means everybody is gunning for her. There’s not a lot of evidence of activity by the Trump campaign in New Hampshire, so it’s really Kelly versus the world.”
And another Granite State-based Republican consultant also pointed to the meager involvement and resources from the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee in New Hampshire.
“Kelly is fighting this alone. That’s not a good situation. You need other people,” the adviser said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “(Trump) is not focused on New Hampshire. His poor poll numbers and lack of enthusiasm are dragging down the whole ticket.”
Craig, who has served three two-year terms in the Granite State’s largest city, narrowly defeated Cinde Warmington, who received her party’s nomination, in last week’s state primary to become the only Democrat on the state’s five-member Executive Council.
Ayotte, a former state attorney general before winning election to the Senate in 2010, defeated former New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
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Sununu, who decided not to run for re-election this year after winning four consecutive two-year terms as New Hampshire governor (New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only states in the country that elect governors every two years), endorsed Ayotte in the primary election this summer.
And Ayotte has pledged to continue the Sununu agenda if elected as the popular GOP governor’s successor.
New Hampshire Republican Governor Chris Sununu is interviewed by Fox News Digital on July 11, 2024 in Newfields, NH (Fox News/Paul Steinhauser)
Ayotte was a rising star She was running for re-election after joining the Republican Party in 2016 and her emphasis on national security was increasing.
But just before the 2016 election, she withdrew her support from Trump due to the “Access Hollywood” controversy, when Trump made lewd comments about groping women without their consent.
“I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who claims to degrade and assault women,” Ayotte said at the time.
Ayotte lost re-election to then-Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by a slim margin of just 1,000 votes.
Ayotte remained neutral throughout New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary, but she endorsed Trump in early March, just after he clinched the Republican Party’s nomination.
Rath pointed to Ayotte’s support for Trump, saying, “Her stance, which was not to embrace Trump and make room for him, I understand why she did that, and you have to face the consequences. … If it’s the top of the ticket, and you’re at the next level, it’s really hard to deal with that problem in a race.”
Also working against Ayotte is the flood of negative ads that ran against her throughout the summer, courtesy of national Democratic groups.
These attacks have helped increase Ayotte’s negative ratings in surveys by the UNH Survey Center and Saint Anselm College.
