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“Low ceiling – high floor.” It’s one of the few mantras that has proven true this past election year – the notion that “Trump has their number.”
In Fox News national pollThe former president has remained the choice of 48-50% of American voters since the primaries began. His support did not wane despite his conviction, and it remained strong even when incumbent President Joe Biden was the obvious nominee as well as when Biden delivered a well-received State of the Union speech in March.
Trump’s support did not rise even when he survived and assassination attempt and showed courage – and held a flawless and unified convention. It did not rise even when his then-opponent (Biden) lost the debates and the Democrats were running away from their candidate.
Trump’s support remains steady Even as the Democrats immediately named Vice President Kamala Harris as their party’s nominee — and most of the media was reporting that she would be, there was a tremendous surge in turnout.
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Still, Trump’s support remained strong, in the 48–50% range.
All of the most reputable polls — which focus on random probability samples and live phone interviews — consistently show that Trump has the support of about half of American voters.
Sometimes polls show Harris ahead, sometimes she might be behind. But it doesn’t matter: In both 2016 and 2020, while Trump lost the national popular vote, he did far better in swing states. In 2016, even though he got only 46.1% of the popular vote, he still won the Electoral College and the presidency. In 2020, he got 46.9% of the national vote — and came remarkably close. electoral College,
I apologize in advance, but I’m going to “dive into” this topic now. There’s a surprising pattern that’s important if you want to understand the American voter — and understand how campaigns are run.
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Historically, Democrats have dominated coastal cities. They do well among college-educated voters (who are more likely to live in larger cities) and have an advantage among minority voters (who are more likely to live in larger cities). As a result, Democrats do particularly well in larger cities states like california And New York — whose Electoral College votes will almost certainly go to Kamala Harris — by a wide margin.
Democrats will, in essence, “waste their votes” — because whether a candidate wins a state by 5 million (Biden’s 2020 margin in California) or 75,000 (Trump’s 2020 margin in North Carolina), only one candidate will get all of the Electoral College votes from those states.
Most people predict that Trump will once again outperform the national popular vote in swing states this November. That’s why people like me think that even if he loses the popular vote by a 52-48 margin, he has a solid chance of winning the Electoral College and returning to the White House.
But…wait a minute. Recent polls ahead of Tuesday night’s debate have produced some strange findings — both nationally and in key swing states.
High quality polls taken in swing states (Fox News, Quinnipiac, Siena/NYTimes) show that Trump is actually doing as well or better in the national popular vote (48%) than he is doing in key swing states (US, China, South Africa). At-large State of Pennsylvania and North Carolina as well as Michigan and Wisconsin). Likewise, Harris is performing as well or better in these swing states as she is doing in national polls.
We’ve only used surveys here that leverage the most reliable methodology. Other averages use all sorts of surveys, but still, the same pattern (or non-pattern) emerges: Trump doesn’t look as strong in swing states as he does nationally. And that’s… interesting.
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This is different from the situation before the 2020 election. Back then, polls suggested Trump would do 2 to 4 points better in swing states than he would nationally. Yes, the 2020 polls (both national and state) underestimated Trump’s support — but the comparison was still accurate and noteworthy: Trump was predicted to do better in swing states than he did nationally (and he did).
I admit I have no easy way to explain this. There are three possibilities:
1. Campaign Expenses/Media
Both the Democratic and Republican campaigns have invested heavily in these states – in television/digital advertising and door-to-door outreach. For most of the year, the Democrats had a significant financial advantage – and this could cut into the natural advantage Trump had in those states. Only about 12% of voters live in swing states and so national polling doesn’t really reflect that impact.
2. Minority support
Polls have shown that Trump is making a dent in traditional Democratic minority support — which could help him in national polling — but would have less impact in these battleground states.
3. Population change
The state’s population is constantly changing, with many people moving to sunny states such as North CarolinaIndeed, in the Fox poll, Harris was leading by 8 points among voters who had just moved to the state, while Trump was leading among a larger group of people who had lived there for a long time.
And it could just be noise. These are survey findings — not actual votes. Surveys are just rough estimates, so they can ignore the slight lead Trump has in swing states.
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I’ll stick to my expectation that Trump will do two points better in swing states than nationally — but it’s worth keeping an eye on this discrepancy as we move forward. election DayWatch to see if the pattern of the last two presidential elections will continue — or if we’re looking at a shift in the country’s political map.
In politics, as in hunting, it’s important to keep an eye out for anything that deviates from your expectations.
