Why is Iran likely to attack Israel? What to know about the crisis

Why is Iran likely to attack Israel? What to know about the crisis



Jerusalem: Less than a week after Iran assassinated a top Hamas leader in Tehran and a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut, the entire Middle East is on edge. Fears of a wider regional war are growing amid Iranian leaders’ vows of revenge, leaving Israel in a state of deep uncertainty.
Why is there a fear of an Iranian attack?
Iran has vowed to avenge the death of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran as he and other leaders of Iran-backed militant groups attended the swearing-in ceremony of a new Iranian president. Israeli leaders did not confirm or deny whether their country was behind the breach in Iran’s security, but Iranian leaders and Hamas officials immediately blamed Israel and vowed retaliation.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued an order for Iran to directly attack Israel, according to three Iranian officials with knowledge of the order.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaan said on Monday that “Tehran is not interested in escalating regional conflicts, but it is necessary to punish Israel.”
How is Lebanon connected to this crisis?
The Iranian government has said any retaliatory strikes would also involve its proxy forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militants in Iraq.
Tensions between Israel and Iran’s backers were high even before Haniyeh’s killing, which came a day after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said after the Beirut attack that the group’s conflict with Israel had entered a new phase and threatened a major retaliation.
Hezbollah has been carrying out attacks alongside Israel for months during Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones at Israel, claiming to show solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Israel has retaliated, evacuating thousands of its citizens to northern Israel near the Lebanese border.
The World Health Organization said on Monday it had delivered 32 tonnes of emergency medical supplies to Lebanon, the scene of widespread conflict.
Hours later, a rocket attack targeted US personnel at a base in Iraq’s western desert, wounding several American soldiers, according to US defense officials. The attack on Ain al-Asad Air Base resembled previous attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, which have repeatedly targeted the base over the past several years and have stepped up their attacks since the war in Gaza began in October.
What have Israeli leaders said?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that his country is “in a multi-front war against Iran’s evil axis” and is “prepared for any scenario – both offensively and defensively.”
“I repeat to our enemies: we will respond and make them pay a heavy price for any aggressive action against us, no matter which direction it comes from,” Netanyahu said.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant spoke with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday and briefed him on the Israeli military’s “readiness to defend Israel from potential threats posed by Iran and its allies,” according to a statement from the Israeli government’s press office.
On Sunday, Galant said at an Israeli base: “We are very strongly prepared for defense on the ground and in the air, and we are ready to move quickly to attack or respond. We will make the enemy pay a price, as we have been doing in recent days. If he dares to attack us, he will pay a heavy price.”
Is diplomacy going on?
In the wake of threats by Iran and its allies to attack Israel, intense diplomatic efforts are underway to avert a full-scale war.
President Joe Biden convened his national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East and spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Monday, a day after Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Tehran for meetings with his Iranian counterpart. Jordan is a close Western ally and helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones during a standoff between Iran and Israel in April.
“Escalating tensions is not in anyone’s interest,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters at a briefing on Monday. He said the United States does not view escalation as “inevitable” and is sending a message to Iran through its allies in the region that an attack would not serve Iranian interests or the interests of the region.
“The leaders discussed their efforts to reduce regional tensions, including agreement on an immediate ceasefire and the release of hostages,” the White House said in a statement about the conversation.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelati spoke with US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and urged him to pressure Israel to “engage seriously” in ceasefire talks, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. According to the State Department, Blinken “reiterated that all parties should refrain from actions that would escalate the conflict.”
According to the Israeli military, General Michael E. Kurilla, who leads the US Central Command, arrived in Israel on Monday to complete coordination with the Israeli military in the wake of a possible Iranian attack.
Gallant said Kurilla’s “arrival in Israel at this time is a direct translation of American support for Israel.”
“The ties between Israel and the United States are unbreakable,” he said in a statement.
The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation plans to hold a meeting of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. Saudi Arab The organization said in a statement that the meeting on Wednesday would discuss “the continuing crimes of the Israeli occupation,” including the killing of Haniyeh, and Israel’s “aggression” against Iran.
How are Western governments advising their citizens in this area?
Several countries, including the United States, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately over the weekend.
France also urged its citizens in Iran to leave as soon as possible and avoid travelling to Israel or the Palestinian territories. Canada on Saturday urged Canadian citizens to avoid travelling to Israel due to the “unpredictable security situation”.
Several airlines have suspended or cancelled flights to and from Beirut, and many flights are sold out. International airlines, including Delta, United, Lufthansa Group and Aegean Airlines, have also suspended flights to and from Israel. Many travelling Israelis have been unable to return home due to flight disruptions.




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